象力在震源过程和地震短临预报中的作用

在固体物理学中,象力是指自由面吸引裂缝的力量,本文把这一概念用于不均匀地壳中,则象力可定义为地壳中任何易于变形,让位界面对裂缝的吸引力。按照这一观点,我们讨论了象力在组合模式和短临预报中的作用并得到如下结论。1.组合模式中的应力调整单元,如蠕滑断层,塑性区,裂丛区等可以近似为自由面。因而它对于积累单元预位移的传播或裂缝的传播具有吸引力。2.象力出现的标志是当传播的预位移和裂缝端部产生的动态应力场达及调整单元时,此时调整单元发生形变监产生前兆。当裂缝由深处向浅处传播,其端部的动态应力场达及自由面时,此时自由面用形变来满足自由面条件从而引起前兆。本文的讨论表明,震源两端的调整单元的同时性表明大震的发生为期不远了。因此调整单元对于预位移和裂缝的传播具有监视作用。本文以海城地震前兆特征为例讨论了这个问题。并由此认为组合模式中调整单元的象力作用比单向蠕裂断层面向震源区的传播更符合实际情况。     

A systematic approach to the input determination for neural network rainfall–runoff models

Input determination has a great influence on the performance of artificial neural network (ANN) rainfall–runoff models. To improve the performance of ANN models, a systematic approach to the input determination for ANN models is proposed. In the proposed approach, the irrelevant inputs are removed. Then an adequate ANN model, which only includes highly relevant inputs, is constructed. Unlike the trial‐and‐error procedure, the proposed approach is more systematic and avoids unnecessary trials. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, an application to actual typhoon events is presented. The results show that the proposed ANN model, which is constructed by the proposed approach, has advantages over those obtained by the trial‐and‐error procedure. The proposed ANN model has a simpler architecture, needs less training time, and performs better. The proposed ANN model is recommended as an alternative to existing rainfall–runoff ANN models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population structure of antarctic krill (Euphausia superba Dana) in the waters north and west of Antarctic Peninsula

Antarctic krill (Euphasia superba Dana) is a key organism of the Antarctic marine ecosystem and a potential fishery resoure. Its ecology was the major biological project in the First Chinese Antarctic Expedition (1985). Acoustic observations and IKMT tows were madecin waters north and west of Antarctic Peninsula. Environmental factors were also observed. Analyses of the population structure, i.e. the sex percentage distribution and other data obtained show that among the 3,640 individuals of determinable sex, only 38.1% were males and that the larger the body length the smaller the percentage of males, for example, male percentage dropped to 8.3% for size group >55 mm. The population's relations to environmental factors are also discussed. Contribution No. 1711 from the Institute of Oceanology, Academia Sinica.     

Interannual sea level variability in the South China Sea and its response to ENSO

Sea level observed by altimeter during the 1993–2004 period, thermosteric sea level from 1945 through 2004, and tide gauge records are analyzed to investigate the interannual variability of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and its relationship with ENSO (El Niño and Southern Oscillation). Both the interannual variations of the observed sea level and the thermosteric sea level are closely related to ENSO. An ‘enigma’ that the SST and sea level in the SCS have inverse response to ENSO is revealed. It is found that the thermosteric sea level has an excellent correspondence to seawater temperature at 100 m depth, and their variations are unsynchronized to SST. Detailed analysis denotes that the warming of seawater occurs only in the upper 75 m during and after the mature phase of El Niño, while the cooling appears in the layers deeper than 75 m during El Niño years. The volume transports between the SCS and the adjacent oceans and the anomalous Ekman pumping contribute a lot for the sea level fall in the developing stage of El Niño, while the mass exchange, which is dominated by precipitation, plays a more significant role in the following continuous negative sea level anomalies.     

南秦岭古生代盆地演化中幕式流体过程及成岩成矿效应

从南秦岭古生代盆地构造-沉积演化出发,通过分析古生界不同层位流体成岩成矿事实与盆地发展演化之间的关系,探讨了南秦岭早古生代—泥盆纪演化时期多幕流体过程和成岩成矿效应。幕式流体成岩成矿最早可追溯到早寒武世,区域上从东到西形成了重要的碳硅质岩中重晶石/毒重石矿床及金、铂族元素矿化;早、中志留世继续发展,形成了钠长石岩、重晶石岩、铁碳酸盐岩、硅质岩与铅-锌、金矿床;中泥盆世为最强烈的一次热水沉积活动,其规模大、热水沉积产物多样,形成了泥盆系硅质岩-钠长石岩-重晶石岩-铁白云石岩中的铅锌(铜)矿床、铁白云石硅质岩中铅锌(铜)矿床以及钠长石角砾-铁白云石板岩中金-铜矿床。     

用冷热休克诱导三倍体近江牡蛎

在近江牡蛎(Ostrea rivularis Gould)卵子授精后25分钟,分别用高温(35℃)和低温(10℃)持续处理20分钟,其胚胎发育初期的三倍体诱导率分别达到64％和69％。在这个高温点和低温点以外随着处理温度的升高或降低,三倍体诱导率均迅速减小。     

专门用途英语后缀构词力研究——以航海英语为例

选取英语中常见15个后缀作为研究对象,以Baayen等语言学者对构词力的定量计算公式作为理论依据,考察其过去的构词力和潜在构词力的大小,并对他们进行详细的比较和分析。研究结果显示,后缀在专门用途英语(航海英语)中的构词力要高于在普通英语(BNC)的构词力。15个后缀在航海英语中的过去构词力呈现出名词性词缀动词性词缀形容词性词缀的趋势,在未来构词力上又呈现出相反的顺序。     

Influence of positive and negative Indian Ocean Dipoles on ENSO via the Indonesian Throughflow: Results from sensitivity experiments

The role of the Indonesian Throughflow(ITF) in the influence of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) on ENSO is investigated using version 2 of the Parallel Ocean Program(POP2) ocean general circulation model. We demonstrate the results through sensitivity experiments on both positive and negative IOD events from observations and coupled general circulation model simulations. By shutting down the atmospheric bridge while maintaining the tropical oceanic channel, the IOD forcing is shown to influence the ENSO event in the following year, and the role of the ITF is emphasized. During positive IOD events,negative sea surface height anomalies(SSHAs) occur in the eastern Indian Ocean, indicating the existence of upwelling.These upwelling anomalies pass through the Indonesian seas and enter the western tropical Pacific, resulting in cold anomalies there. These cold temperature anomalies further propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific, and ultimately induce a La Nia-like mode in the following year. In contrast, during negative IOD events, positive SSHAs are established in the eastern Indian Ocean, leading to downwelling anomalies that can also propagate into the subsurface of the western Pacific Ocean and travel further eastward. These downwelling anomalies induce negative ITF transport anomalies, and an El Nio-like mode in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean that persists into the following year. The effects of negative and positive IOD events on ENSO via the ITF are symmetric. Finally, we also estimate the contribution of IOD forcing in explaining the Pacific variability associated with ENSO via ITF.     

基于模糊逻辑的大气云粒子相态反演和效果分析

为了探究8mm云雷达探测到的大气云粒子相态特征,根据Shupe总结得到云雷达探测参量:反射率因子、Doppler径向速度、线性退偏振比以及温度在不同相态水凝物对应的云雷达产品特征阈值,采用不对称T型的隶属函数,成员函数包括:反射率因子、线性退偏振比、径向速度以及垂直温度廓线,反演出的粒子相态包括:雪、冰晶、混合相态、液水、毛毛雨、雨等6种。通过联合分析中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室的偏振云雷达探测资料和GTS1型探空仪温度数据,结果表明;通过模糊逻辑法对云雷达探测的参量反演出的大气粒子相态结果与探空实时数据一致性较好,对现阶段常规天气预报参考、人工影响天气作业指挥以及效果评估来说具有较好指导性。     

甘肃武威市一次局地大到暴雨天气成因分析

利用常规天气图、FY-2D卫星云图、单站地面资料、NCEP再分析物理量场资料,对2013年8月6日发生在甘肃武威市对流性强降雨天气成因进行了诊断分析。结果表明:强降雨是在一定的大尺度环流背景下高低层天气系统共同作用下发生的,地面气象要素的剧烈变化是强对流天气能量的释放过程;湿度条件和水汽在本地辐合为大到暴雨提供了充沛的水汽;高层辐散、低层辐合以及强烈的上升气流是大到暴雨发生的动力条件;强烈的不稳定能量和不稳定层结是对流增强、雨强较大的必要条件;对流云团的发展和加强是降雨强度较大的直接原因。