An iterative version of the adaptive Gaussian mixture filter

The adaptive Gaussian mixture filter (AGM) was introduced as a robust filter technique for large-scale applications and an alternative to the well-known ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). It consists of two analysis steps, one linear update and one weighting/resampling step. The bias of AGM is determined by two parameters, one adaptive weight parameter (forcing the weights to be more uniform to avoid filter collapse) and one predetermined bandwidth parameter which decides the size of the linear update. It has been shown that if the adaptive parameter approaches one and the bandwidth parameter decreases, as an increasing function of the sample size, the filter can achieve asymptotic optimality. For large-scale applications with a limited sample size, the filter solution may be far from optimal as the adaptive parameter gets close to zero depending on how well the samples from the prior distribution match the data. The bandwidth parameter must often be selected significantly different from zero in order to make large enough linear updates to match the data, at the expense of bias in the estimates. In the iterative AGM we introduce here, we take advantage of the fact that the history matching problem is usually estimation of parameters and initial conditions. If the prior distribution of initial conditions and parameters is close to the posterior distribution, it is possible to match the historical data with a small bandwidth parameter and an adaptive weight parameter that gets close to one. Hence, the bias of the filter solution is small. In order to obtain this scenario, we iteratively run the AGM throughout the data history with a very small bandwidth to create a new prior distribution from the updated samples after each iteration. After a few iterations, nearly all samples from the previous iteration match the data, and the above scenario is achieved. A simple toy problem shows that it is possible to reconstruct the true posterior distribution using the iterative version of the AGM. Then a 2D synthetic reservoir is revisited to demonstrate the potential of the new method on large-scale problems.     

Geochemical studies on urban soil from two sampling depths in Tampere Central Region,Finland

Preliminary geochemical mapping was carried out within urban areas in Tampere Central Region, Finland, to gain a better understanding of element concentrations in urban soil and to provide information on baselines in soil within urban centres for soil contamination assessment purposes. The soil samples were taken from central city parks, day-care centres and school yards, and residential areas. Various sampling depths have generally been used in urban geochemical surveys. The aim of this study was to compare the results from two commonly used sample types taken from the same sites in urban soil: single samples of minerogenic topsoil from the 0–25 cm layer and composite samples of minerogenic topsoil from a depth of 0–2 cm. The concentrations of most of the studied trace elements showed a significant correlation between samples from 0 to 2 and 0 to 25 cm, but element concentrations differed between the two studied sample depths. For most of the studied elements, the median concentrations were higher in the 0–25 cm samples, but anomalous concentrations were more often found in the 0–2 cm samples. Some elements had elevated concentrations when compared with the Finnish guideline values for soil contamination assessment. This study did not conclusively establish whether a sampling depth of 0–2 or 0–25 cm should be recommended for similar studies in the future. Selection of the sampling depth in geochemical studies greatly depends on the aim of the project. In order to determine the upper limits of geochemical baseline variation, the deeper sampling depth appears to be more feasible. However, for the preliminary health risk assessment of areas with sensitive land uses, e.g. children’s playgrounds, samples from 0–2 cm depth are considered informative. Such samples may also be used to indicate local sources of dusting creating site-specific hotspots of potentially harmful elements in urban topsoil.     

Genetic relationship between silver–lead–zinc mineralization in the Wutong deposit,Guangxi Province and Mesozoic granitic magmatism in the Nanling belt,southeast China

More than 50 % of the world's total reserves of tungsten are in China and most tungsten deposits are located in the Nanling range in southeast China. This study explores the potential genetic relationship between tungsten–tin (W–Sn) mineralization and shallower Ag–Pb–Zn deposits in the Nanling range based on data from the Wutong deposit, Guangxi Province. The lead, oxygen, carbon, sulfur, and strontium isotopic compositions of minerals at Wutong indicate that a single crustal-derived fluid was responsible for mineralization. Wutong likely formed at relatively low temperatures (～200–300 °C) and low pressures, as indicated by the similarity between homogenization temperatures of fluid inclusions and those estimated from S isotopic compositions of minerals. The hübnerite age (92.3–104.4 Ma) indicates that the Wutong mineralization is likely related to nearby Late Yanshanian (Cretaceous) S-type granites derived from Proterozoic crust. This mineralization event coincides with the last W–Sn mineralization event and the Cretaceous peak of mineralization in the Nanling range.     

‘PALEOVAN’, International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP): site survey results and perspectives

Lake Van is the fourth largest terminal lake in the world (volume 607 km³, area 3570 km², maximum depth 460 m), extending for 130 km WSW–ENE on the Eastern Anatolian High Plateau, Turkey. The sedimentary record of Lake Van, partly laminated, has the potential to obtain a long and continuous continental sequence that covers several glacial–interglacial cycles (ca 500 kyr). Therefore, Lake Van is a key site within the International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) for the investigation of the Quaternary climate evolution in the Near East (‘PALEOVAN’). As preparation for an ICDP drilling campaign, a site survey was carried out during the past years. We collected 50 seismic profiles with a total length of ～850 km to identify continuous undisturbed sedimentary sequences for potential ICDP locations. Based on the seismic results, we cored 10 different locations to water depths of up to 420 m. Multidisciplinary scientific work at positions of a proposed ICDP drill site included measurements of magnetic susceptibility, physical properties, stable isotopes, XRF scans, and pollen and spores. This core extends back to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), a more extended record than all the other Lake Van cores obtained to date. Both coring and seismic data do not show any indication that the deepest part of the lake (Tatvan Basin, Ahlat Ridge) was dry or almost dry during past times. These results show potential for obtaining a continuous undisturbed, long continental palaeoclimate record. In addition, this paper discusses the potential of ‘PALEOVAN’ to establish new results on the dynamics of lake level fluctuations, noble gas concentration in pore water of the lake sediment, history of volcanism and volcanic activities based on tephrostratigraphy, and paleoseismic and earthquake activities.     

Calcite Dissolution Kinetics

We compare the canonical treatment of calcite’s dissolution rate from the literature in a closed system, particle batch reactor, with the alternative approach suggested by Truesdale (Aquat Geochem, 2015). We show that the decay of rate over time can be understood in terms of the evolution and distribution of reactive sites on the surface of these particles. We also emphasize that interpretation of observed rates must not exclude the fundamental role of crystal defects, whose importance is already implicitly reflected in the common form of rate laws in geochemistry. The empirical behavior of overall rate in closed systems, such as those described by Truesdale, may thus reflect relationships between defect centers and the generation of steps over the calcite surface (previously documented for silicates), such that below a critical free energy limit, there is insufficient driving force to open hollow cores and thus a loss of reaction mechanism. Dissolution in this very-near-equilibrium regime will be dependent on the distribution of extant steps and the energetics of new kink site nucleation. However, these sensitivities are complicated in the case of particle systems by grain boundaries, edges, corners, and other terminations. Such discontinuities constitute a defect class whose overall kinetic importance will be strongly tied to particle diameter and which can act independently of the internal strain field imposed by screw and edge dislocations.     

Investigations on the runoff generation at the profile and plot scales,Swiss Emmental

This article describes an investigation on runoff generation at different scales in the forested catchment of the Sperbelgraben in the Emmental region (Swiss Prealps) where studies in the field of forest hydrology have a history of 100 years. It focuses on the analysis of soil profiles and the subsequent sprinkling experiments above them (1 m²), as well as on surface runoff measurements on larger plots (50 to 110 m²). In the Sperbelgraben investigation area, two very distinct runoff reactions could be observed. On the one hand, very high production of saturation overland flow was registered on wet areas of gleyic soils, with runoff coefficients between 0·39 and 0·94 for profile irrigation. On the other hand, almost no surface runoff was measured on Cambisols, with the exception at some sites of a hydrophobic reaction detected at the beginning of storms after dry periods (coefficients for profile irrigation: 0·01–0·16). This pattern was observed during 1 m² soil plot irrigation and on surface runoff plots. Apart from a less distinctive signal of the water‐repellent litter layer on the larger surface runoff plots, the dominant hydrological processes at the two scales are the same. The determined runoff reaction at the two scales corresponds well with information from a forest site type map describing soil and vegetation characteristics and used as a substitute for a soil map in this study. Theoretical considerations describing forest influence on flood discharge are discussed and evaluated to be in good agreement with observations. These findings are a sound foundation for application in hydrological catchment modelling. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.