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Holger Frey Christian Huggel Yves Bühler Daniel Buis Maria Dulce Burga Walter Choquevilca Felipe Fernandez Javier García Hernández Claudia Giráldez Edwin Loarte Paul Masias Cesar Portocarrero Luis Vicuña Marco Walser 《Landslides》2016,13(6):1493-1507
The town of Santa Teresa (Cusco Region, Peru) has been affected by several large debris-flow events in the recent past, which destroyed parts of the town and resulted in a resettlement of the municipality. Here, we present a risk analysis and a risk management strategy for debris-flows and glacier lake outbursts in the Sacsara catchment. Data scarcity and limited understanding of both physical and social processes impede a full quantitative risk assessment. Therefore, a bottom-up approach is chosen in order to establish an integrated risk management strategy that is robust against uncertainties in the risk analysis. With the Rapid Mass Movement Simulation (RAMMS) model, a reconstruction of a major event from 1998 in the Sacsara catchment is calculated, including a sensitivity analysis for various model parameters. Based on the simulation results, potential future debris-flows scenarios of different magnitudes, including outbursts of two glacier lakes, are modeled for assessing the hazard. For the local communities in the catchment, the hazard assessment is complemented by the analysis of high-resolution satellite imagery and fieldwork. Physical, social, economic, and institutional vulnerability are considered for the vulnerability assessment, and risk is eventually evaluated by crossing the local hazard maps with the vulnerability. Based on this risk analysis, a risk management strategy is developed, consisting of three complementing elements: (i) standardized risk sheets for the communities; (ii) activities with the local population and authorities to increase social and institutional preparedness; and (iii) a simple Early Warning System. By combining scientific, technical, and social aspects, this work is an example of a framework for an integrated risk management strategy in a data scarce, remote mountain catchment in a developing country. 相似文献
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Hydrogeology Journal - A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-021-02351-x 相似文献
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Barthel Roland Haaf Ezra Giese Markus Nygren Michelle Heudorfer Benedikt Stahl Kerstin 《Hydrogeology Journal》2021,29(5):1693-1709
Hydrogeology Journal - A new concept is proposed for describing, analysing and predicting the dynamic behaviour of groundwater resources based on classification and similarity. The concept makes... 相似文献
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