Results of a 36-hour storm surge prediction of the North Sea for 3 January 1976 on the basis of numerical models

Summary To explore the feasibility of forescasting North Sea storm surges by integrating numerically a combined atmospheric-oceanographic physical model, the severe storm and the resulting water levels occurring on 3 January 1976 were simulated as a first step into this direction. For this purpose, the atmospheric model was run with a resolution of 8 levels in the vertical and a horizontal grid spacing of 1.4° in latitude and 2.8° in longitude on the hemisphere. The initial conditions are based upon observations of 2 January 1976, 12 GMT, i.e. about 24 hours before the storm reached its greatest intensity in the southern parts of the North Sea.The surface wind predicted by the atmospheric model was converted into stress values through a bulk formula which then entered the vertically integrated North Sea model, to yield the desired water elevations in a 22 km-grid. Moreover, also the observed wind, stemming from a careful re-analysis of the storm situation, was handled in the same way. The numerically obtained results were compared with gauge measurements at a number of coastal stations.

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Ergebnisse einer 36stündigen Vorhersage der Nordsee-Sturmflut am 3. Januar 1976 aufgrund von numerischen Modellen

Zusammenfassung Zur Untersuchung der Möglichkeiten, Sturmfluten mit physikalischen Modellen der Atmosphäre und der Nordsee vorherzusagen, wurde als erster Schritt in dieser Richtung die schwere Sturmflut an der deutschen Nordseeküste vom 3. Januar 1976 nachgerechnet. Hierzu wurde das im Sonderforschungsbereich 94 entwickelte Atmosphärenmodell auf der Grundlage der hydro- und thermodynamischen Gleichungen mit einer Auflösung von 8 Flächen in der Vertikalen sowie 1,4° in der geographischen Breite und 2,8° in der geographischen Länge auf der gesamten Nordhalbkugel über 36 Stunden numerisch integriert. Als Eingangsdaten dienten die Beobachtungen vom 2. Januar 1976, 12 Uhr. dieser Termin liegt ca. 24 Stunden vor Eintritt des stärksten Sturmes im Bereich der Deutschen Bucht.Die auf diese Weise prognostizierte Windverteilung wurde über der Nordsee in Schubspannungswerte überführt, woraus das Nordseemodell mit den hydrodynamischen Gleichungen die Wasserstandswerte in einem 22-km-Netz berechnete. In entsprechender Weise wurde mit einem aus Beobachtungen während dieses Zeitraums gewonnenen Windfeld verfahren; diesem lag eine besonders sorgfältige, nachträglich angefertigte Analyse des Seewetteramts Hamburg zugrunde. Die so errechneten Wasserstände sind dann mit Pegelmessungen verglichen worden.

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Résultats d'une prédiction d'onde de tempête de 36 heures de la mer du Nord pour le 3 janvier 1976 sur la base de modèles numériques

Résumé Afin d'étudier la possibilité de prévior les ondes de tempête en mer du Nord en intégrant numériquement un modèle physique combiné atmosphère-océan, la forte tempête du 3 janvier 1976 et des niveaux d'eau qui en ont résulté ont été simulés comme premier pas dans cette voie. Dans ce but, on a fait fonctionner le modèle atmosphérique avec une résolution de 8 niveaux dans le plan vertical et un réseau horizontal aux pas de 1,4° en latitude et de 2,8° en longitude sur l'hémisphère. Les conditions initiales sont basées sur les observations du 2 janvier 1976 à 12h GMT, c'est-à-dire environ 24 heures avant que la tempête n'atteignît sa plus forte intensité dans les parties méridionales de la mer du Nord.Le vent en surface prédit par le modèle atmosphérique était converti par l'intermédiaire d'une formule globale en valeurs de tensions qui étaient alors introduites dans le modèle de la mer du Nord intégré verticalement, pour obtenir les hauteurs d'eau désirées, dans un réseau de 22 km de côté. En outre, le vent observé, issu d'une nouvelle analyse soignée de la situation de tempête, était aussi traité de la même manière. Les résultats obtenus numériquement furent comparés aux mesures fournies par les marégraphes en un certain nombre de stations côtières.

     

Applications of a two-flow model for remote sensing of substances in water

A version of the two-flow radiative transfer model is presented as a simple method to study the relationship between substances in water and the backscattered radiation field. It is shown that under the assumption of a diffuse radiative input into a water body, the irradiance attenuation coefficient k can be regarded as an inherent property. A cuvette system is presented which allows one to measure and calculate the attenuation coefficient k, the absorption coefficient a and the backscattering coefficient Bb of various substances. The model can be used to check the applicability of a remote sensing technique for a specific research area and for specific parameters, and to estimate the expected accuracy, and the signal depth. The inversion of the model can be applied as a technique to estimate concentrations in water from the backscattered radiation. The critical assumption of a diffuse radiative input and transfer, which has to be made when using the model for natural conditions, is discussed.The research work was supported by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.     

New INTEGRAL sources and TeV emission

INTEGRAL is operational since more than three years and producing high quality data that allows to detect fainter new hard X-ray sources. The new sources, identified until now, are mostly active galactic nuclei and absorbed or transient high mass X-ray binaries. TeV emission could be expected from the new high mass X-ray binaries accreting dense clumps of stellar wind. INTEGRAL sources with TeV counterparts are discussed. Based on observations with INTEGRAL, an ESA project with instruments and science data centre funded by ESA member states (especially the PI countries: Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, Spain), Czech Republic and Poland, and with the participation of Russia and the USA.     

Homogeneous cosmological solutions of the Einstein equation

Homogeneous solutions in the framework of general relativity form the basis to understand the properties of gravitation on global scale. Presently favoured models describe the evolution of the universe by an expansion of space, governed by a scale function, which depends on a global time parameter. Dropping the restriction that a global time parameter exists, and instead assuming that the time scale depends on spatial distance, leads to static solutions, which exhibit no singularities, need no unobserved dark energy and which can explain the cosmological red shift without expansion. In contrast to the expanding world model energy is globally conserved. Observations of high energy emission and absorption from the intergalactic medium, which can scarcely be understood in the ‘concordance model’, find a natural explanation.     

Rheological characteristics of debris-flow material in South-Gargano watersheds

In recent years, debris flows have represented a severe natural hazard in South-Gargano watersheds (Puglia Region, Southern Italy). Hill slopes erosion, caused by the inadequate protection of the degraded forests, produces large amounts of soil and debris that are conveyed downstream during heavy rainstorms. The involved material is characterized by limestone fragments and blocks in a sandy-silt matrix. In this paper, the rheological properties of such debris-flow materials have been investigated. Eight specimens of particulated sediments of particle diameter of d ≤ 4 mm have been analysed using a rheometric tool for large particle suspensions, the ball measuring system (BMS). The influence of sediment concentration on the bulk rheological behaviour has been evaluated at concentrations by volume obtained in fully water-saturated conditions (volumetric sediment concentration C _V ~ 0.8) and with fixed water content (C _V = 0.42). The rheological data were fitted to the Bingham, Herschel–Bulkley, and O’Brien and Julien models to define viscosity and yield stress dependency on sediment concentration, to provide viscosity information for hazard mitigation as well as for comparison to other debris-flow events.     

From consistency to flexibility: Handling spatial information schema thanks to a middleware in a 3D city modeling context

Twinning elements of reality gains a growing interest in support of decision-making, learning, and simulations: a single and shared model should provide a unique integrative basis for managing assets of any replica of the real world. From a technical viewpoint, sharing and opening information requires both an exchange format and a high degree of freedom and flexibility. It should allow an important number of users to manage this information, to modify it, etc. Storing and manipulating spatial information concerning the urban built context currently focuses on ensuring consistency thanks to relational databases and predefined schemas. Following a paradigm shift from a relational database to a NoSQL database, a schema validation middleware is proposed to improve the flexibility of storage by conceding a share of its consistency. The flexibility improvements thus provide users a common basis that is able to evolve all along the lifecycle of their models and applications as required for twinning things. It allows users and their applications to take advantage of new storage features such as common: versioning, partitioning, prioritization, applications profiles, etc. The middleware and their new capabilities are illustrated thanks to the CityJSON encoding and its simplified schema for a document-oriented database.     

Optical closure of parameterized bio-optical relationships

An optical closure study on bio-optical relationships was carried out using radiative transfer model matrix operator method developed by Freie Universitt Berlin.As a case study,the optical closure of bio-optical relationships empirically parameterized with in situ data for the East China Sea was examined.Remote-sensing refl ectance(R rs)was computed from the inherent optical properties predicted by these biooptical relationships and compared with published in situ data.It was found that the simulated R rs was overestimated for turbid water.To achieve optical closure,bio-optical relationships for absorption and scattering coeffi cients for suspended particulate matter were adjusted.Furthermore,the results show that the Fournier and Forand phase functions obtained from the adjusted relationships perform better than the Petzold phase function.Therefore,before bio-optical relationships are used for a local sea area,the optical closure should be examined.     

Zircon evidence for a ~200 k.y. supereruption-related thermal flare-up in the Miocene southern Black Mountains,western Arizona,USA

The Silver Creek caldera (southern Black Mountains, western Arizona) is the source of the 18.8 Ma, >700 km³ Peach Spring Tuff (PST) supereruption, the largest eruption generated in the Colorado River Extensional Corridor (CREC) of the southwestern United States. Within and immediately surrounding the caldera is a sequence of volcanics and intrusions ranging in age from ~19 to 17 Ma. These units offer a record of magmatic processes prior to, during, and immediately following the PST eruption. To investigate the thermal evolution of the magmatic center that produced the PST, we applied a combination of Ti-in-zircon thermometry, zircon saturation thermometry, and high-precision U–Pb CA–TIMS zircon dating to representative pre- and post-supereruption volcanic and intrusive units from the caldera and its environs. Similar to intracaldera PST zircons, zircons from a pre-PST trachytic lava (19 Ma) and a post-PST caldera intrusion (18.8 Ma) yield exceptionally high-Ti concentrations (most >20 ppm, some up to nearly 60 ppm), corresponding to calculated temperatures that exceed 900 °C. In these units, Ti-in-zircon temperatures typically surpass zircon saturation temperatures (ZSTs), suggesting the entrainment of zircon that had grown in hotter environments within the magmatic system. Titanium concentrations in younger volcanic and intrusive units (~18.7–17.5 Ma) decline through time, corresponding to an average cooling rate of 10^?3.5 °C/year. The ~200 k.y. thermal peak evident at Silver Creek caldera is spatially limited: elsewhere in the Miocene record of the northern CREC, Ti-in-zircon concentrations and ZSTs are much lower, suggesting that felsic magmas were generally substantially cooler.