A climate-isotope regression model with seasonally-varying and time-integrated relationships

This study investigates multivariable and multiscalar climate-??¹⁸O relationships, through the use of statistical modeling and simulation. Three simulations, of increasing complexity, are used to generate time series of daily precipitation ??¹⁸O. The first simulation uses a simple local predictor (daily rainfall amount). The second simulation uses the same local predictor plus a larger-scale climate variable (a daily NAO index), and the third simulation uses the same local and non-local predictors, but with varying seasonal effect. Since these simulations all operate at the daily timescale, they can be used to investigate the climate-??¹⁸O patterns that arise at daily-interannual timescales. These simulations show that (1) complex links exist between climate-??¹⁸O relationships at different timescales, (2) the short-timescale relationships that underlie monthly predictor-??¹⁸O relationships can be recovered using only monthly ??¹⁸O and daily predictor variables, (3) a comparison between the simulations and observational data can elucidate the physical processes at work. The regression models developed are then applied to a 2-year dataset of monthly precipitation ??¹⁸O from Dublin and compared with event-scale data from the same site, which illustrates that the methodology works, and that the third regression model explains about 55% of the variance in ??¹⁸O at this site. The methodology introduced here can potentially be applied to historic monthly ??¹⁸O data, to better understand how multiple-integrated influences at short timescales give rise to climate-??¹⁸O patterns at monthly-interannual timescales.     

The effect of particle size distributions on the dynamics of falling precipitation zones

A simplistic study of the dynamics of a falling particle ensemble is described. It shows the effect created by the introduction of particle size distributions on precipitation onset and duration and compares it to the case where air motions or pressure fields triggered by the particles are neglected. The assumption of homogeneously sized raindrops seems adequate if precipitation rates and total rainfall are considered. As soon as timing is involved a more refined treatment is required.     

Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries

Citizens’ support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. We argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change.In this study, we draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens’ views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education.We found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such ‘folk psychologies’ can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens’ resource use.     

A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU.     

Gravity field determination using boundary element methods

The Boundary Element Method (BEM), a numerical technique for solving boundary integral equations, is introduced to determine the earth's gravity field. After a short survey on its main principles, we apply this method to the fixed gravimetric boundary value problem (BVP), i.e. the determination of the earth's gravitational potential from measurements of the intensity of the gravity field in points on the earth's surface. We show how to linearize this nonlinear BVP using an implicit function theorem and how to transform the linearized BVP into a boundary integral equation using the single layer representation. A Galerkin method is used to transform the boundary integral equation using the single layer representation. A Galerkin method is used to transform the boundary integral equation into a linear system of equations. We discuss the major problems of this approach for setting up and solving the linear system. The BVP is numerically solved for a bounded part of the earth's surface using a high resolution reference gravity model, measured gravity values of high density, and a 50 50 m² digital terrain model to describe the earth's surface. We obtain a gravity field resolution of 1 1 km² with an accuracy of the order 10^–3 to 10^–4 in about 1 CPU-hour on a Siemens/Fujitsu SIMD vector pipeline machine using highly sophisticated numerical integration techniques and fast equation solvers. We conclude that BEM is a powerful numerical tool for solving boundary value problems and may be an alternative to classical geodetic techniques.     

Mechanical intrusion models and their implications for the possibility of magma-driven swarms in NW Bohemia Region

Earthquake swarms are often assumed to be caused by magmatic or fluid intrusions, where the stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusion control the position, strength and rate of seismicity. Fracture mechanical models of natural intrusions or man-made hydrofractures pose constraints on orientation, magnitude, shape and growing rate of fractures and can be used to estimate stress changes in the vicinity of the intrusions. Although the idea of intrusion-induced seismicity is widely accepted, specific comparisons of seismicity patterns with fracture models of stress changes are rarely done. The goal of the study is to review patterns of intrusion-induced earthquake swarms in comparison to the observations of the swarm in NW Bohemia in 2000. We analyse and discuss the theoretical 3D shape of intrusions under mixed mode loading and apparent buoyancy. The aspect ratio and form of the intrusion is used to constrain parameters of the fluid, the surrounding rock and stress. We conclude that the 2000 NW Bohemia swarm could have been driven by a magmatic intrusion. The intrusion was, however, inclined to the maximal principal stress and caused shear displacement additional to opening. We estimate that the density diference between magma and rock was small. The feeding reservoir was possibly much larger than the area affected from earthquakes and may be a vertical dike beneath the swarm region.     

Remote sensing of substances in water

Remote sensing of water colour and its application to the mapping of pigments, suspended matter and other substances by means of airborne and spaceborne sensors is discussed. After an introduction to the physical process involved, the methods for a quantitative interpretation especially of CZCS data are indicated. Applications towards the monitoring of coastal pollution, of algae blooms and of dynamic processes are shown by means of selected examples. Multispectral scanner and imaging spectrometer technologies are discussed with special reference to NASA's Earth Observation System and ESA's Earth Observation Programme.     

Interactive effects of environmental variability and human impacts on the long-term dynamics of an Amazonian floodplain lake and a South Atlantic coastal lagoon

Human activities are exposing freshwater ecosystems to a wide range of stressors, whose direct and indirect effects can be alleviated or exacerbated through interactive effects with dynamic environmental drivers. This study used long-term data from two Neotropical lacustrine freshwater systems (Batata Lake, an Amazonian floodplain lake and Imboassica lagoon, an Atlantic coastal lagoon) subjected to different kinds of environmental fluctuations (i.e., flood pulse and sandbar opening) and anthropogenic impacts (i.e., siltation and eutrophication). Our objective was to determine whether the effects of human perturbations are contingent on modifications of important biotic and abiotic characteristics through environmental variability. For both ecosystems, environmental variability consistently interacted with anthropogenic perturbations to alter most of the variables analyzed, such as nutrient dynamics, chlorophyll-a concentration, zooplankton and benthic invertebrate species richness, and temporal community stability, which indicates that interactive effects between environmental variability and anthropogenic perturbations may impact a myriad of ecosystem properties. Furthermore, the nature of these interactive effects was highly dependent on the variable considered and on the ecosystem analyzed. For example, at Imboassica lagoon, sandbar openings interacted synergistically with trophic state to increase the phosphorus concentration in the water column. At Batata Lake, flooding generally alleviated the negative effects of siltation on species richness by both diluting inorganic suspended material concentration and by promoting local recruitment from the regional species pool. Such results indicate that our ability to understand and predict the outcome of anthropogenic impacts on inland aquatic systems can be hampered if we consider human stressors as “static” phenomena disconnected from dynamic interactions with major local environmental drivers.