Streamflow Modelling: A Primer on Applications,Approaches and Challenges

This article examines the current practice of streamflow modelling, a field under development for over a century. A sample of the wide range of assessment and planning applications of streamflow models is presented. The diversity in the use of these models is mirrored in the diversity of model complexity, and modelling approaches ranging from empirical to physically based and from lumped to fully distributed are described with examples. Predictions derived from hydrological models are subject to many sources of error; these are discussed along with methods for error minimization or anticipation. Model error is generally quantified using an ensemble of forecasts meant to sample the range of predictive uncertainty. This ensemble can be used to generate reliable probabilistic forecasts of hydrological quantities if all sources of error are accounted for. To date, applications of ensemble methods in streamflow forecasting have typically focused on only one or two error sources. A challenge will be to develop ensemble streamflow forecasts that sample a wider range of predictive uncertainty.

[Traduit par la rédaction] Le présent article examine la pratique actuelle en modélisation d’écoulement fluvial, un domaine qui évolue depuis plus d'un siècle. Nous présentons un échantillon de la vaste gamme d'applications d’évaluation et de planification des modèles d’écoulement fluvial. La diversité dans l'utilisation de ces modèles est le reflet de la diversité dans la complexité des modèles, et nous décrivons à l'aide d'exemples les approches de modélisation qui peuvent être empiriques ou basées sur la physique ou encore localisées ou entièrement réparties. Plusieurs sources d'erreur peuvent affecter les prévisions issues des modèles hydrologiques; nous discutons de ces sources d'erreur de même que des méthodes de réduction ou d'anticipation des erreurs. L'erreur du modèle est généralement quantifiée à l'aide d'un ensemble de prévisions servant à échantillonner la grandeur de l'incertitude prévisionnelle. Cet ensemble peut servir à produire des prévisions probabilistes fiables des grandeurs hydrologiques si toutes les sources d'erreur sont prises en compte. Jusqu’à maintenant, les applications des méthodes d'ensemble à la prévision des écoulements fluviaux n'ont généralement tenu compte que d'une ou deux sources d'erreur. Ce sera un défi de mettre au point des prévisions d'ensemble d’écoulement fluvial qui échantillonnent un plus large éventail d'incertitude prévisionnelle.     

New mineralogical and chemical data on the Machinga (L6) chondrite,Malawi

Abstract— The Machinga, southern Malawi, Africa, L6 chondrite (observed fall, 22 January 1981) contains accessory phases of metal, troilite, chromite, and native Cu (which is associated with limonite and found in zones of aqueous alteration). Rare accessory phases are apatite and pentlandite, which are uncommon in L6 chondrites. Major mineral constituents (olivine, orthopyroxene, and plagioclase) indicate shock effects at a level of about 15–20 GPa shock pressure. The meteorite is thus classified to be of L6d type. Melt pockets of widely variable composition are abundant.     

Analytical model for a geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph

The rainfall‐runoff modelling of a river basin can be divided into two processes: the production function and the transfer function. The production function determines the proportion of gross rainfall actually involved in the runoff. The transfer function spreads the net rainfall over time and space in the river basin. Such a transfer function can be modelled using the approach of the geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH). The effectiveness of geomorphological models is actually revealed in rainfall‐runoff modelling, where hydrologic data are desperately lacking, just as in ungauged basins. These models make it possible to forecast the hydrograph shape and runoff variation versus time at the basin outlet. This article is an introduction to a new GIUH model that proves to be simple and analytical. Its geomorphological parameters are easily available on a map or from a digital elevation model. This model is based on general hypotheses on symmetry that provide it with multiscale versatile characteristics. After having validated the model in river basins of very different nature and size, we present an application of this model for rainfall‐runoff modelling. Since parameters are determined relying on real geomorphological data, no calibration is necessary, and it is then possible to carry out rainfall‐runoff simulations in ungauged river basins. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Stellar kinematics and populations of early-type galaxies with the SAURON and OASIS integral-field spectrographs

We summarise the results and achievements of integral-field spectroscopy of early-type galaxies, observed as part of a survey using both the SAURON and OASIS spectrographs. From the perspective of integral-field spectroscopy, these otherwise smooth and featureless objects show a wealth of structure, both in their stellar kinematics and populations. We focus on the stellar content, and examine properties on both kiloparsec scales with SAURON, and scales of 100’s of parsecs with OASIS. These complementary studies reveal two types of kinematically distinct components (KDCs), differing primarily in their intrinsic sizes. In previous studies, KDCs and their host galaxies have generally been found to be unremarkable in other aspects. We show that large KDCs, typical of the well-studied cases, indeed show little or no age differences with their host galaxy. The KDCs detected with the higher spatial-resolution of OASIS are intrinsically smaller and include, in contrast, a significant fraction of young stars. We speculate on the relationship between KDCs and their host galaxies, and the implications for young populations in early-type galaxies.     

Conditional estimation variances: An empirical approach

One of the tasks routinely carried out by geostatisticians is the evaluation of global mining reserves corresponding to a given cutoff grade and size of selective mining units. A long with these recovery figures, the geostatistician generally provides an assessment of the global estimation variance, which represents the precision of the overall average grade estimate, when no cutoff is applied. Such a global estimation variance is of limited interest for evaluating mining projects; what is required is the reliability of the estimate of recovered reserves or, in other words, the conditional estimation variance. Unfortunately, classical linear geostatistical methods fail to provide an easy way to estimate this variance. Through the use of simulated deposits (representing various types of regionalization)the present paper reviews and discusses the effects of changes in cutoff grade and selective mining unit size on the conditional estimation variance. It is shown that, when the cutoff grade is applied to a pointsupport (sample-size)distribution, the conditional estimation variance appears to be readily accessible by classical formulas, once the conditional semivariogram is known. However, the evaluation of the conditional estimation variance seems to be less straightforward for the general case when a cutoff is applied to the average grade distribution of selective mining units. Empirical approximation formulas for the conditional estimation variance are tentatively proposed, and their performance in the case of the simulated deposits is shown. The limitations of these approximations are discussed, and possible ways of formalizing the problem suggested.     

GALACSI – The ground layer adaptive optics system for MUSE

MUSE, the Multi-Unit Spectroscopic Explorer, is an adaptive optics (AO)-assisted Integral Field Spectrograph, currently in the Preliminary Design Phase as a second generation instrument for the VLT. MUSE will feature two modes, each with an associated AO mode. The first mode is the wide field mode, mainly aiming at the study of high redshift galaxies. For this mode, the AO system has to deliver an improvement of at least a factor of two over the full 1′ × 1′ field of view. The second mode, the narrow field mode, aims at the high-resolution spectroscopy of nearby extended objects, for example, galaxies and globular clusters. For this mode, the AO system will have to deliver near-diffraction limited performance over a small field of view. In this paper, we discuss the trade-offs in the current design of GALACSI – the MUSE AO system – and illustrate with a number of simulations the expected performance in the wide- and narrow field modes.     

Salt Tectonic Modeling Using Reverse Time Migration Imaging and Sensitivity Kernel Wavelength Analysis

Surveys in Geophysics - It is of particular importance for structural geology, geophysical exploration and also obvious economical purposes to retrieve structures possibly hidden below salt domes....     

Petrography,Sr-isotope geochemistry and geochronology of the Nxau Nxau kimberlites,north-west Botswana

The Nxau Nxau kimberlites in northwest Botswana belong to the Xaudum kimberlite province that also includes the Sikereti, Kaudom and Gura kimberlite clusters in north-east Namibia. The Nxau Nxau kimberlites lie on the southernmost extension of the Congo Craton, which incorporates part of the Damara Orogenic Belt on its margin. The Xaudum kimberlite province is geographically isolated from other known clusters but occurs within the limits of the NW-SE oriented, Karoo-aged Okavango Dyke Swarm and near NE-SW faults interpreted as the early stages of the East African Rift System. Petrographic, geochronological and isotopic studies were undertaken to characterise the nature of these kimberlites and the timing of their emplacement. The Nxau Nxau kimberlites exhibit groundmass textures, mineral phases and Sr-isotope compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i of 0.7036 ± 0.0002; 2σ) that are characteristic of archetypal (Group I) kimberlites. U-Pb perovskite, ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar phlogopite and Rb-Sr phlogopite ages indicate that the kimberlites were emplaced in the Cretaceous, with perovskite from four samples yielding a preferred weighted average U-Pb age of 84 ± 4 Ma (2σ). This age is typical of many kimberlites in southern Africa, indicating that the Xaudum occurrences form part of this widespread Late Cretaceous kimberlite magmatic province. This time marks a significant period of tectonic stress reorganisation that could have provided the trigger for kimberlite magmatism. In this regard, the Nxau Nxau kimberlites may form part of a NE-SW oriented trend such as the Lucapa corridor, with implications for further undiscovered kimberlites along this corridor.