The role of prior model calibration on predictions with ensemble Kalman filter

This paper, based on a real world case study (Limmat aquifer, Switzerland), compares inverse groundwater flow models calibrated with specified numbers of monitoring head locations. These models are updated in real time with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the prediction improvement is assessed in relation to the amount of monitoring locations used for calibration and updating. The prediction errors of the models calibrated in transient state are smaller if the amount of monitoring locations used for the calibration is larger. For highly dynamic groundwater flow systems a transient calibration is recommended as a model calibrated in steady state can lead to worse results than a noncalibrated model with a well-chosen uniform conductivity. The model predictions can be improved further with the assimilation of new measurement data from on-line sensors with the EnKF. Within all the studied models the reduction of 1-day hydraulic head prediction error (in terms of mean absolute error [MAE]) with EnKF lies between 31% (assimilation of head data from 5 locations) and 72% (assimilation of head data from 85 locations). The largest prediction improvements are expected for models that were calibrated with only a limited amount of historical information. It is worthwhile to update the model even with few monitoring locations as it seems that the error reduction with EnKF decreases exponentially with the amount of monitoring locations used. These results prove the feasibility of data assimilation with EnKF also for a real world case and show that improved predictions of groundwater levels can be obtained.     

Bildung bromhaltiger Desinfektionsnebenprodukte nach Chlorung von Bodenseewasser in Abhängigkeit von Aufbereitungsschritten und der Bromidkonzentration

Formation of Brominated Disinfection By-products after Chlorination of Water from Lake Constance Depending on Treatment Steps and Bromide Concentration The formation of halogenated disinfection by-products (DNP) (trihalomethanes (THM), haloacetic acids (HES), haloacetonitriles (HAN), haloketones (HKE) and chloropicrin (TCNM)) was studied after chlorination (0.5 mg/L) of raw water and drinking water from Lake Constance. The objectives of this study were to investigate the effect of bromide ion on the distribution of DNP-species resulting from chlorination and to draw up a bromide mass-balance. The treatment of water from Lake Constance with ozone decreased the formation of DNP about 35% and of total organic halogens (AOX) about 45%. This decline in DNP-formation is mainly due to the formation of chloroform, dichloro- and trichloroacetic acid. Though there is only a small amount of bromide (6.2 μg/L) in water from Lake Constance, about 32% of THM, 16% of HES, and 30% of HAN contained bromine after chlorination of treated water. The addition of bromide ion (up to 1 mg/L) shifted the DNP-composition to more brominated species. The distribution of the DNP-species depends on the initial molar bromide-to-chlorine ratio. A mathematic model showed the same pattern of DNP-species depending on the initial molar bromide-to-chlorine ratio that was observed experimentally in microstrained raw water and drinking water from Lake Constance. After chlorination of microstrained raw water, 27% of the bromide were incorporated in known DNP, 34% in unknown substances, and about 39% of bromide were not converted to organic bromine. After chlorination of treated water, only 16% of the bromide were incorporated in unknown substances, whereas 34% were found in known DNP. About 50% were found as bromide again. After addition of bromide (up to 25 μg/L) to ozonated and treated water from Lake Constance, between 60 and 72% of the bromide that had reacted after chlorination were found in analyzed low-molecular DNP.     

SporadicE ionization associated with meteor events

Two meteor events which were sighted in the Gujarat skies of India, were accompained by the visibility of sporadicE ionization on the ionograms recorded at Ahmedabad (Geog. Lat. 23·2°N, long. 72·30°E). The first event was the Dhajala fireball which flashed into the geoatmosphere along an E-N to W-S trail at about 20·40 h IST on 28 January 1976; the closest distance of the ground projection of meteor trail from Ahmedabad was 50km. The other event was a possible meteor group sighted over Ahmedabad on 28 May 1978, at about 21·10 h IST. This work describes the nature of the sporadicE ionization observed on Ahmedabad ionograms during the two events. Features of theEs echo during the Dhajala event which indicate that it could be of meteoric origin are discussed. Meteor theory is used to relate the observed ionization with the physical dimensions of the Dhajala meteorite as obtained by other workers.     

To what extent can atmospheric deposition influence the natural background of metals in ground waters? A case study in the Czech Republic

In harmony with requirements of Water Framework Directive the natural backgrounds of selected metals were established on the territory of Czech Republic. This paper is intended to provide characteristics and results of testing methods focused on quantification of the impacts of anthropogenic activities based on data of regional monitoring and their separation from acid atmospheric deposition including an appropriate discussion regarding the natural backgrounds of relevant metals. The results indicate that even in regions extremely affected by acid atmospheric deposition as is the territory of the Czech Republic this acid deposition will not have direct impact on the quality of ground waters on a regional scale. Consequently, the proved changes in quality of ground waters seem to have been caused by secondary processes, specifically by mobilization of metals in a rock environment due to increased acidity.     

Power spectrum of geomagneticK p-index detected at Misallat magnetic station

TheK _p-indices measured at Misallat station [ø = 29°45 N; = 30°54 E] during the period 1958–1989, have been compared with the data of two geomagnetic stations; one of them has similar longitude as Misallat and the second has almost similar latitude. The spectra of daily and hourly data of the three stations are compared together to define the latitude and longitude-effects on the detected periodicities. Daily periodicities ofK _p-index activities at the values 32.7, 21.2, 12.9, 11.6 and 9.2 days have been obtained to be common in the spectra of the three stations. The existence of 5-days periodicity in these stations has also been detected.     

Evidence for focused hot fluid flow within the Britannia Field, offshore Scotland, UK

Fluid inclusion and scanning electron microscope‐cathodoluminescence evidence indicates focused hot, saline, diagenetic fluid flow within the Eastern Flank of the Britannia Field, offshore Scotland, UK. The fluid was sourced from the Andrew Salt Dome, 10 km to the east. The fluids, which promoted quartz cementation of the upper zones within the field, were up to ～30°C hotter and had salinities up to ～10 wt% NaCl equivalent higher than fluids from lower in the reservoir section. During diagenesis hot saline fluids migrated westwards as part of a radiating ‘diagenetic front’ from the Andrew Salt Dome. Structural dip associated with the Eastern Flank of the Fladen Ground Spur impeded the westward movement of the diagenetic fluid. The quartz cements from the upper and lower reservoir zones can be distinguished by morphology. In the upper zones the quartz cements have well‐developed macro‐crystalline zoning and heterogeneous luminescence across the grain. In the lower zones, the cements are much less developed, unzoned and very weakly luminescent. The diagenetic fluids were primarily focused into Zone 45 within the upper reservoir. Furthermore, within the Main Platform Area the most prolific producing zone is Zone 45, indicating the importance of this interval as a permeable flow unit during both diagenetic and production timescales. Within the Eastern Flank, the quartz overgrowths have a major impact on reservoir permeability and thus well productivity. The overgrowths are most extensive in the originally clean sandstones with low clay content. Clay in optimum volumes (5–10%) can inhibit nucleation of the damaging quartz overgrowths without having a detrimental effect on pore connectivity. These observations provide a predictive concept for use in the search for relative reservoir sweetspots within the degraded Eastern Flank.     

X-ray transient sources

The galactic distribution and physical nature of X-ray transient sources is investigated. Two types of transients are considered. The observational data on 41 X-ray transient sources are given, and the average parameters of hard and soft X-ray transients are estimated.     

Observation of Precipitating Systems over Complex Orography with Meteorological Doppler Radars: A Feasibility Study

Summary  This paper concerns the use of airborne or ground-based Doppler radars to observe precipitating systems over complex orography. As nearly all of the previous experiments involving Doppler radars were conducted over flat surfaces over the continents or the oceans, new techniques are needed firstly to separate ground clutter from meteorological signal and, in the case of airborne Doppler observations, to deduce navigational errors. Secondly, it is necessary to take the atmospheric circulation induced by orography into account in the three-dimensional wind field analysis. Variational techniques are presented to solve these problems. The proposed methods are tested with simulated ground-based and airborne Doppler radar observations for analytic flows over analytic terrains and for numerically simulated wind and reflectivity fields for the Brig event (22 September 1993) of heavy precipitation over the southern flank of the Alps (Cosma and Richard, 1998), and with actual airborne Doppler data relative to weak snow showers over the Rocky Mountains on 12 March 1995. Received March 22, 1999/Revised June 1, 1999     

The use of7LiOH-impregnated filters for the collection of acidic gases and analysis by instrumental neutron activation analysis

A simple system was designed using⁷LiOH-impregnated filters to collect acidic gases from ambient air and from highly concentrated volcanic plumes or gas streams. These filters were developed for analysis using instrumental neutron activation analysis, but other analytical techniques could be used as well. The sampling system was designed to use a series of 1–3 M⁷LiOH-impregnated filters to collect high concentrations of acidic gases found in gas plumes of active volcanoes. The filters are quantitative for SO₂ and the halide acids when sufficient base is present to neutralize the acidic species. Extremely high concentrations of SO₂ may not be collected quantitatively since SO₂ is a relatively weak Lewis acid compared to the halide acids. The acidic oxides of Sb, As, and Se were also collected quantitatively. A particle filter preceded the impregnated filters in order to remove particles from the fumes. This system has proven effective under difficult sampling conditions and, since it is portable and light weight, it could be used for many volcanological applications where high levels of acidic gaseous phase species need to be collected.