Estimation of recent glacial variations in baspa basin using remote sensing technique

The Himalayas has one of the largest concentrations of glaciers outside the Polar Regions. Various reports suggest that significant number of mountain glaciers is shrinking due to climatic variations. Monitoring of these glaciers is important to assess future availability of water resources in the Himalayan region. However, Himalayan glaciers are normally difficult to monitor due to the rugged, mountainous terrain. Therefore, images of Indian Remote Sensing Satellite were used to monitor glaciers in the Baspa basin. Investigations have shown the presence of 30 glaciers in the basin, with areal extent of 167 km2. Out of these, 19 glaciers, with areal extent of 140 km² were selected to estimate retreat. Investigation suggests that almost all glaciers are retreating in the study basin and overall 19% deglaciation has been observed from 1962 to 2001. In general, altitude distribution appears to have significant influence on glacial retreat. Glaciers located around 5000 m altitude range are showing 24% loss as compared to 14% by glaciers located in altitude range higher than 5400 m. In addition, mean altitude of glacier terminus is shifted upward by 88 m, i.e. from 4482 to 4570 m in last 39 years. The glacial volumes were estimated using regression relationship between area and depth. The investigations have suggested that 19.10 km³ of glacial water stored in the 19 glaciers in 1962, has been reduced to 14.71 km³ in 2001, respectively, an overall loss of 23 percent in a period between 1962 and 2001. These investigations suggest that all glaciers in the Baspa Basin are reducing and in long term, such reducing trend can create scarcity of water in the region.     

Remote sensing and gis applications in the identification of aquaculture hotspots at village level

Interpretation of IRS LISS II and LISS III imagery has revealed the various landforms as well as land use/land cover features in a part of the Godavari delta coastal belt. A comparative analysis of geomorphological vs. land use/land cover maps suggested that the landforms exert a certain degree of control over human land use activities even in this monotonously plain area. Further, an analysis of the sequential imagery pertaining to 1992 and 2001 aimed at detecting the land use/land cover change has indicated that the aquaculture has phenomenally increased by 9,293.5 ha during the 9-year period. At the same time, the cropland which occupied about 29,104 ha in 1992 has been reduced to 19,153.9 ha by 2001 mainly due to the encroachment of aquaculture. Village level data on temporal variation in land use/land cover extracted through GIS analysis revealed that in 14 out of the total 39 villages in the area, the conversion of cropland into aquaculture ponds was more than 30% with the highest conversion rate of 89.8% in Gondi village. These fourteen villages, which are designated as ‘aquaculture hotspots’ are grouped into 4 priority classes based on the intensity of conversion.     

HUBEX强化观测期雷达测雨在水文过程模拟中的应用(英)

选择全球能量与水循环亚洲季风试验区的淮河黄泥庄水文站控制的史河流域(805 km2)为研究区域,基于数字高程模型,生成栅格水流流向,构建数字流域及空间拓扑关系;然后,将阜阳雷达观测数据经过订正校准后作为研究区内每一栅格单元上的雨量输入,并在每一栅格上应用新安江模型构建产流模型;再根据每一栅格至流域出口断面-黄泥庄水文站的距离,运用Muskingum方法进行汇流演算,从而获得黄泥庄站的流量过程。计算结果显示,从1998年5月31日-8月3日的强化观测期内模型确定性系数为92.41％,其间4场洪水的确定性系数分别为85.64％、86.62％、92.57％和83.91％,高于应用地面雨量计观测的数据计算的结果。这说明雷达测雨数据具有较高的时空分辨率,当它应用于水文过程模拟时优于地面雨量计资料,基于栅格的水文模型为充分利用雷达数据提供了良好平台。     

青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(MCSs)的个例分析及其比较

对1995年7月25—28日高原上连续数日出现MCSs的现象进行了红外云图特征及其演变、大尺度环境背景场和对流有效位能的分析。可以发现，所有这些MCSs有着相似的日变化演变过程；它们的初始对流在中午由于日射加热开始活跃，之后迅速发展，这些MCSs在后下午形成，在傍晚达到最强，之后逐渐减弱。其中26日MCS最为强大，它是在单一的强大的近于圆形的高原反气旋高压背景下受强的低层热力强迫和条件不稳定的驱动而发生的。这些发生条件都与高原本身的热力作用紧密相关，所以它的发生发展主要与高原特有的较为纯粹的热力因子相联系。28日MCS是另一个很强的MCS，它明显地受到中纬度西风槽的斜压区的影响，这二个很强的MCS有着不同的发展机制和显著不同的表现特征。     

GPS折射角资料的变分同化试验

越来越多的新型观测资料为数值天气预报水平的进一步提高提供了许多新的机会。在各种新型的观测资料中,GPS(全球定位卫星系统)折射角资料无疑是非常重要的。GPS折射角资料具有分辨率高、全天候探测、覆盖全球等优点,实现对GPS折射角资料的变分同化,将具有非常重要的意义。文中介绍了如何获得及同化GPS折射角资料的原理。对GPS折射角资料的变分同化可以分为两种:间接同化和直接同化,文中对这两种方法都作了具体介绍。在变分同化的最小化过程中,计算效率无疑是最重要的,而优化步长的计算又直接关系到算法效率的成败。根据最小化算法的特点,通过数学推导,得出一种适合于各种最小化算法的计算优化步长的自适应方法。最后,还利用1995年10月11日的GPS折射角资料进行了数值试验,结果表明了变分同化方法和计算优化步长方法的有效性。     

The Northward Shift of Climatic Belts in China During the Last 50 Years and the Corresponding Seasonal Responses

Along the meridian of 105°E, the Chinese region are divided into two parts, east and west. The results show that in the east part of China the temperate extratropical belt, the warm extratropical belt,and the northern subtropical belt shift northward significantly, whereas the middle subtropical belt and the southern subtropical belt have less or no change. As for the northern subtropical belt, the maximal northward shift can reach 3.7 degrees of latitude. As for the warm extratropical belt, along the meridian of 120°-125°E, the maximal northward shift can reach 3-4 degrees. In the west part of China, each climatic belt changes little. Only in the Xinjiang area are the significant northward shifts. Correspondingly, it is found that in the last 50 years the traditional seasons have changed. For Beijing, Hailar, and Lanzhou, in general, summer becomes longer and winter shorter over the last 50 years. Summer begins early and ends late with respect to early 1950s. Contrary to the summer, winter begins la     

Regional effects of large-scale extreme wind events over orographically structured terrain

Summary ?Above orographically structured terrain considerable differences of the regional wind field may be identified during large-scale extreme wind events. So far, these regional differences could not be resolved by climate models. To determine the relationships between large-scale atmospheric conditions, the influence of orography, and the regional wind field, data measured in the upper Rhine valley within the framework of the REKLIP Regional Climate Project were analyzed and calculations were made using the KAMM mesoscale model. In the area of the upper Rhine valley, ratios of the wind velocity in the Rhine valley at 10 m above ground level, ν_val, and the large-scale flow velocity, ν_lar, are between ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.1 and ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 1. The ν_val/ν_lar ratio exhibits a strong dependence on thermal stratification, δ, and decreases from ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 1 at δ = 0 K m⁻¹ to ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.2 at δ = 0.0075 K m⁻¹. In areas, where the lateral mountainous border of the Rhine valley is interrupted, the ν_val/ν_lar ratio increases again with increasing stability or decreasing Froude number. This is obviously due to flow around the Black Forest under stable stratification. It is demonstrated by model calculations that a complex wind field develops in the Rhine valley at small Froude numbers (Fr < 1) irrespective of the direction of large-scale flow. The ν_val/ν_lar ratio is characterized by small values in the direct lee side (ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.2) and high values on the windward side of the lateral mountainous border of the Rhine valley (ν_val/ν_lar ≈ 0.8). Received October 22, 2001; revised June 18, 2002; accepted June 23, 2002     

Recent Rapid Regional Climate Warming on the Antarctic Peninsula

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed that mean global warming was 0.6 ± 0.2 °C during the 20th century and cited anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases as the likely cause of temperature rise in the last 50 years. But this mean value conceals the substantial complexity of observed climate change, which is seasonally- and diurnally-biased, decadally-variable and geographically patchy. In particular, over the last 50 years three high-latitude areas have undergone recent rapid regional (RRR) warming, which was substantially more rapid than the global mean. However, each RRR warming occupies a different climatic regime and may have an entirely different underlying cause. We discuss the significance of RRR warming in one area, the Antarctic Peninsula. Here warming was much more rapid than in the rest of Antarctica where it was not significantly different to the global mean. We highlight climate proxies that appear to show that RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula is unprecedented over the last two millennia, and so unlikely to be a natural mode of variability. So while the station records do not indicate a ubiquitous polar amplification of global warming, the RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula might be a regional amplification of such warming. This, however, remains unproven since we cannot yet be sure what mechanism leads to such an amplification. We discuss several possible candidate mechanisms: changing oceanographic or changing atmospheric circulation, or a regional air-sea-ice feedback amplifying greenhouse warming. We can show that atmospheric warming and reduction in sea-ice duration coincide in a small area on the west of the Antarctic Peninsula, but here we cannot yet distinguish cause and effect. Thus for the present we cannot determine which process is the probable cause of RRR warming on the Antarctic Peninsula and until the mechanism initiating and sustaining the RRR warming is understood, and is convincingly reproduced in climate models, we lack a sound basis for predicting climate change in this region over the coming century.     

Description and evaluation of the bergen climate model: ARPEGE coupled with MICOM

A new coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice model has been developed, named the Bergen Climate Model (BCM). It consists of the atmospheric model ARPEGE/IFS, together with a global version of the ocean model MICOM including a dynamic–thermodynamic sea ice model. The coupling between the two models uses the OASIS software package. The new model concept is described, and results from a 300-year control integration is evaluated against observational data. In BCM, both the atmosphere and the ocean components use grids which can be irregular and have non-matching coastlines. Much effort has been put into the development of optimal interpolation schemes between the models, in particular the non-trivial problem of flux conservation in the coastal areas. A flux adjustment technique has been applied to the heat and fresh-water fluxes. There is, however, a weak drift in global mean sea-surface temperature (SST) and sea-surface salinity (SSS) of respectively 0.1 °C and 0.02 psu per century. The model gives a realistic simulation of the radiation balance at the top-of-the-atmosphere, and the net surface fluxes of longwave, shortwave, and turbulent heat fluxes are within observed values. Both global and total zonal means of cloud cover and precipitation are fairly close to observations, and errors are mainly related to the strength and positioning of the Hadley cell. The mean sea-level pressure (SLP) is well simulated, and both the mean state and the interannual standard deviation show realistic features. The SST field is several degrees too cold in the equatorial upwelling area in the Pacific, and about 1 °C too warm along the eastern margins of the oceans, and in the polar regions. The deviation from Levitus salinity is typically 0.1 psu – 0.4 psu, with a tendency for positive anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere, and negative in the Southern Hemisphere. The sea-ice distribution is realistic, but with too thin ice in the Arctic Ocean and too small ice coverage in the Southern Ocean. These model deficiencies have a strong influence on the surface air temperatures in these regions. Horizontal oceanic mass transports are in the lower range of those observed. The strength of the meridional overturning in the Atlantic is 18 Sv. An analysis of the large-scale variability in the model climate reveals realistic El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic–Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO) characteristics in the SLP and surface temperatures, including spatial patterns, frequencies, and strength. While the NAO/AO spectrum is white in SLP and red in temperature, the ENSO spectrum shows an energy maximum near 3 years.