Statistical method of precipitation prediction

Precipitation records from Salamanca (Spain) are being analyzed to detect temporal oscillations. This paper shows a method to identify these signals in order to determine the behaviour of the precipitation time series in this region.     

(137)Cs baseline levels in the Mediterranean and Black Sea: a cross-basin survey of the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch programme

The common mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis was selected as unique biomonitor species to implement a regional monitoring programme, the CIESM Mediterranean Mussel Watch (MMW), in the Mediterranean and Black Seas. As of today, and upon standardization of the methodological approach, the MMW Network has been able to quantify (137)Cs levels in mussels from 60 coastal stations and to produce the first distribution map of this artificial radionuclide at the scale of the entire Mediterranean and Black Seas. While measured (137)Cs levels were found to be very low (usually < 1 Bq kg(-1) wet wt) (137)Cs activity concentrations in the Black Sea and North Aegean Sea were up to two orders of magnitude higher than those in the western Mediterranean Basin. Such effects, far from representing a threat to human populations or the environment, reflect a persistent signature of the Chernobyl fallout in this area.     

Decomposition and analysis by atomic absorption photospectrometry of silicate rocks

A rapid and simple method of analysis of silicate rocks using gold crucibles and fluoroboric acid as a solvent of the disintegrated material has been developed. The main elements are determined in a single treatment. The results obtained are comparable to the values recommended for samples of eleven standard rocks.     

Burning peat and reworking loess contribute to the formation and evolution of a large Carolina-bay basin

Carolina bays are nearly ubiquitous along ~ 1300 km of the North American Atlantic Coastal Plain, but relatively few bays have been examined in detail, making their formation and evolution a topic of controversy. The Lake Mattamuskeet basin, eastern North Carolina, USA, is a conglomeration of multiple Carolina bays that form a > 162 km² lake. The eastern shoreline of the lake is made up of a 2.9-km-wide plain of parabolic ridges that recorded rapid shoreface progradation. The lower shoreface deposit contains abundant charcoal beds and laminae dated 6465–6863 cal yr BP, corresponding with initiation of a lacustrine environment in the eastern part of the lake. A core from the western part of the lake sampled a 1541–1633 cal yr BP charcoal bed at the base of the lacustrine unit, indicating formation of this part of the basin postdates the eastern basin. Lake Mattamuskeet has no relationship to the Younger Dryas or a linked impact event because rim accretion significantly postdates 12,000 cal yr BP. The shoreline progradation, and association of charcoal beds with the oldest lake sediment in both main parts of the basin, suggest that fire and subsequent hydrodynamic processes were associated with initial formation of these Carolina bays.     

Early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides based on real-time probabilistic hazard assessment

Natural Hazards - A methodology to define rainfall-landslide thresholds, using a probabilistic model in which the accumulated rainfall at any time is treated as a random variable, is proposed. The...     

Minimizing the impacts of contaminant intrusion in small water distribution networks through booster chlorination optimization

Contaminant intrusion in a water distribution network (DN) has three basic pre-conditions: source of contaminant (e.g., leaky sewer), a pathway (e.g., water main leaks), and a driving force (e.g., negative pressure). The impact of intrusion can be catastrophic if residual disinfectant (chlorine) is not present. To avoid microbiological water quality failure, higher levels of secondary chlorination doses can be a possible solution, but they can produce disinfectant by-products which lead to taste and odour complaints. This study presents a methodology to identify potential intrusion points in a DN and optimize booster chlorination based on trade-offs among microbiological risk, chemical risk and life-cycle cost for booster chlorination. A point-scoring scheme was developed to identify the potential intrusion points within a DN. It utilized factors such as pollutant source (e.g., sewer characteristics), pollution pathway (water main diameter, length, age, and surrounding soil properties, etc.), consequence of contamination (e.g., population, and land use), and operational factors (e.g., water pressure) integrated through a geographical information system using advanced ArcMap 10 operations. The contaminant intrusion was modelled for E. Coli O156: H7 (a microbiological indicator) using the EPANET-MSX programmer’s toolkit. The quantitative microbial risk assessment and chemical (human health) risk assessment frameworks were adapted to estimate risk potentials. Booster chlorination locations and dosages were selected using a multi-objective genetic algorithm. The methodology was illustrated through a case study on a portion of a municipal DN.     

An overview on the seismicity of Cuba

The seismicity of Cuba is briefly presented together with a few fundamental neotectonic elements of the adjacent Caribbean region. The Cuban seismicity catalogue has been extended back to 1528 and it shows that the largest earthquakes occurred in 1766 and 1852 (I = IX MSK). Two types of seismicity (intraplate and interplate) can be distinguished in Cuba. Western and Eastern Seismotectonic Units correspond to intraplate type and the Southeastern Seismotectonic Unit to interplate type. Western Cuba is characterized by a low frequency of earthquake occurrence. Distribution of epicenters is not regular and the most important events mainly concentrate along two regional active fault system (Nortecubana and Surcubana). Due to the lack of seismic stations in this region, the characterization of seismicity is frequently done on the grounds of historical data available from 1693. The main seismogenic source for Cuba is the Bartlett-Cayman fault system, but inland there are other active structures. Some issues about historical and present day Cuban seismological research are also showed.     

Comparison of catchment and network delineation approaches in complex suburban environments: application to the Chaudanne catchment,France

Suburban areas are subject to strong anthropogenic modifications, which can influence hydrological processes. Sewer systems, ditches, sewer overflow devices and retention basins are introduced and large surface areas are sealed off. The knowledge of accurate flow paths and watershed boundaries in these suburban areas is important for storm water management, hydrological modelling and hydrological data analysis. This study proposes a new method for the determination of the drainage network based on time efficient field investigations and integration of sewer system maps into the drainage network for small catchments of up to 10 km². A new method is also proposed for the delineation of subcatchments and thus the catchment area. The subcatchments are delineated using a combination of an object‐oriented approach in the urban zone and geographical information system–based terrain analysis with flow direction forcing in the rural zone. The method is applied to the Chaudanne catchment, which belongs to the Yzeron river network and is located in the suburban area of Lyon, France. The resulting subcatchment map gives information about subcatchment response and contribution. The method is compared with six other automatic catchment delineation methods based on stream burning, flow direction forcing and calculation of subcatchments for inlet points. None of the automatic methods could correctly represent the catchment area and flow paths observed in the field. The watershed area calculated with these methods differs by as much as 25% from the area computed with the new method. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Experimental Study of the Effects of DNAPL Distribution on Mass Rebound

The release of stored dissolved contaminants from low permeability zones contributes to plume persistence beyond the time when dense nonaqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) has completely dissolved. This is fundamental to successfully meeting acceptable low concentrations in groundwater that are driven by site‐specific cleanup goals. The study goals were to assess the role of DNAPL entrapment morphology on mass storage and plume longevity. As controlled field studies are not feasible, two‐dimensional (2D) test tanks were used to quantify the significance of mass loading processes from source dissolution and stored mass rebound. A simple two‐layer soil domain representing a high permeable formation sand overlying a zone of lower permeability sand was used in the tests. DNAPL mass depletion through dissolution was monitored via X‐ray photon attenuation, and effluent samples were used to monitor the plume. These data enabled analysis of the DNAPL distribution, the dissolved plume, and the dissolved phase distribution within the low permeability layer. Tests in an intermediate tank showed that mass storage contributes substantially to plume longevity. Detectable effluent concentrations persisted long after DNAPL depletion. The small tank results indicated that the DNAPL morphology influenced the flow field and caused distinctive transport mechanisms contributing to mass storage. Zones of high DNAPL saturation at the interface between the low and high permeability layers exhibited flow bypassing and diffusion dominated transport into the low permeability layer. In the absence of a highly saturated DNAPL zone near the soil interface the contaminant penetrated deeper into the low permeability layer caused by a combination of advection and diffusion.     

Adaptation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Shigella flexneri</Emphasis> to starvation: morphology,outer membrane proteins and lipopolysaccharide changes

Lack of nutrients is a common challenge for enteric pathogens, like Shigella, when discharged in waters and soils by infected persons. These bacteria must evolve protective mechanisms to survive nutrient changing conditions. Many studies have demonstrated that bacterial starvation can affect cell morphology and surface properties such as lipopolysaccharide content. This study focuses on the morphological and physiological alterations of Shigella flexneri, a human pathogen, under nutrient starvation during 30 days. Our results showed that S. flexneri can survive under nutrient deficiency during 4 weeks. However, starved cells revealed several morphological changes indicating decrease of the size and change of the cell shape as observed by transmission electron microscopy. Furthermore, the outer membrane proteins and lipopolysaccharide profiles of starved cells revealed the disappearance, the appearance, and changes of the protein band levels. The survival and physiological adaptation of S. flexneri under nutrient limitation during 30 days may increase the risk of human and animal infections.