The great 1983 floods in South American large rivers: a continental hydrological modelling approach

ABSTRACT

This study provides a spatio-temporal analysis of the great floods that occurred in South America in 1983 using hydrometeorological data and outputs from a continental-scale hydrological-hydrodynamic model. In the extreme year 1983, there were three main flooding periods (February, June and July) in many South American river basins, such as the Araguaia, Tocantins, São Francisco, Uruguay, La Plata and its tributaries, resulting in high discharge of the Paraguay River for many months. Depth–area–duration curves show that 3-day precipitation events in northern regions of South America were among the largest 15 events in the period 1980–2015 but only for specific locations, whereas in southern areas, the most extreme events in the same period were for larger durations (≥7-day precipitation). Modelled total export of water volume to the oceans indicates that rivers draining to the South Atlantic reached an anomaly of 3.7 during 1983, followed by 1998 (1.9) and 1992 (1.1), all of them corresponding to El Niño years.     

Seismic base‐isolation by use of a telescoping stepping mechanism

A new base‐isolation mechanism corresponding to a variance of the stepping A‐shaped frame is proposed and its seismic performance is investigated numerically for strong ground accelerations with peak values in the range from 0.5 to 1g. In its simplest two‐dimensional form, the system consists of a frame with two telescoping legs pinned at the apex at a sharp angle. The legs are attached to the foundation through a spring and a damper acting in parallel. Both the springs and viscous dampers have bilinear characteristics that make them very stiff in compression but very soft in tension. As the structure rocks sideways, the length of the loaded leg remains essentially constant while the length of the unloaded leg increases. When the ground acceleration changes direction, the process is reversed. The resulting system has three main characteristics: (i) as the structure steps on a rigid leg, the maximum acceleration that can be transmitted to the superstructure is limited to a value which is approximately independent of the amplitude of the ground motion; (ii) there is a systematic lifting of the superstructure with kinetic energy being systematically transformed into potential energy during the strong phase of the ground motion; and (iii) the system is slowly self‐centering at the end of the earthquake. The seismic performance of the system is evaluated for a tall bridge pier and for a smaller frame that could be used in a multi‐story building. The results obtained for the 1940 El Centro ground motion scaled to 1g and for the near‐field Rinaldi ground motion recorded during the Northridge earthquake show that substantial reductions of the absolute acceleration can be obtained with reasonable relative displacements of the superstructure and small strokes in the isolation devices. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A model study of the temporal behaviour of the emission intensity and rotational temperature of the OH Meinel bands for high-latitude summer conditions

The temporal variation of OH* emission and weighted rotational temperature has been studied for high-latitude summer conditions. Observations for 60°N latitude show OH weighted temperatures that always exceed 145 K even during periods of noctilucent clouds. Using a one-dimensional model the effects in excited OH concentration produced by changes in temperature, eddy diffusion, and water concentration have been analysed. We are forced to conclude that there remains a discrepancy between the OH temperatures predicted by the model and that obtained from OH^* measurements. An increase in OH^* concentration from June to the beginning of August, followed by a slow decrease during August has been obtained in agreement with the measurements. The 16-day modulation present in the measurements was simulated in a simple manner by varying the temperature in the mesopause region. This variation produces periodic modulations in both OH^* concentration and weighted temperature of 16 days. The results show the temperature leading the OH^* column concentration by three days. This phase shift is also present in the observations.     

Groundwater Level Prediction/Forecasting and Assessment of Uncertainty Using SGS and ARIMA Models: A Case Study in the Bauru Aquifer System (Brazil)

Natural Resources Research - Best water management practices should involve the prediction of the availability of groundwater resources. To predict/forecast and consequently manage these water...     

Linking shock textures revealed by BSE,CL, and EBSD with U‐Pb data (LA‐ICP‐MS and SIMS) from zircon from the Araguainha impact structure,Brazil

A silicious impact melt rock from polymict impact breccia of the northern part of the alkali granite core of the Araguainha impact structure, central Brazil, has been investigated. The melt rock is thought to represent a large mass of impact‐generated melt in suevite. In particular, a diverse population of zircon grains, with different impact‐induced microstructures, has been analyzed for U‐Pb isotopic systematics. Backscattered electron and cathodoluminescence images reveal heterogeneous intragrain domains with vesicular, granular, vesicular plus granular, and vesicular plus (presumably) baddeleyite textures, among others. The small likely baddeleyite inclusions are not only preferentially located along grain margins but also occur locally within grain interiors. LA‐ICP‐MS U‐Pb data from different domains yield lower intercept ages of 220, 240, and 260 Ma, a result difficult to reconcile with the previous “best age” estimate for the impact event at 254.7 ± 2.7 Ma. SIMS U‐Pb data, too, show a relatively large range of ages from 245 to 262 Ma. A subset of granular grains that yielded concordant SIMS ages were analyzed for crystallographic orientation by EBSD. Orientation mapping shows that this population consists of approximately micrometer‐sized neoblasts that preserve systematic orientation evidence for the former presence of the high‐pressure polymorph reidite. In one partially granular grain (#36), the neoblasts occur in linear arrays that likely represent former reidite lamellae. Such grains are referred to as FRIGN zircon. The best estimate for the age of the Araguainha impact event from our data set from a previously not analyzed type of impact melt rock is based on concordant SIMS data from FRIGN zircon grains. This age is 251.5 ± 2.9 Ma (2σ, MSWD = 0.45, p = 0.50, n = 4 analyses on three grains), indistinguishable from previous estimates based on zircon and monazite from other impact melt lithologies at Araguainha. Our work provides a new example of how FRIGN zircon can be combined with in situ U‐Pb geochronology to extract an accurate age for an impact event.     

Stretch-free generalized normal moveout correction

The effective application of normal moveout correction processes mainly depends on four factors: the chosen traveltime approximation, the stretching associated with the given traveltime, crossing events and phase changes, the last two being inherent to the seismic data. In this context, we conduct a quantitative analysis on stretching considering a general traveltime expression depending on half-offset and midpoint coordinates. Through this analysis, we propose a mathematically proven procedure to eliminate stretching, which can be applied to any traveltime approximation. The proposed method is applied to synthetic and real data sets, considering different traveltime approximations and achieved complete elimination of stretching.     

Predominant period and equivalent viscous damping ratio identification for a full‐scale building shake table test

The predominant period and corresponding equivalent viscous damping ratio, also known in various loading codes as effective period and effective damping coefficient, are two important parameters employed in the seismic design of base‐isolated and conventional building structures. Accurate determination of these two parameters can reduce the uncertainty in the computation of lateral displacement demands and interstory drifts for a given seismic design spectrum. This paper estimates these two parameters from data sets recorded from a full‐scale five‐story reinforced concrete building subjected to seismic base excitations of various intensities in base‐isolated and fixed‐base configurations on the outdoor shake table at the University of California, San Diego. The scope of this paper includes all test motions in which the yielding of the reinforcement has not occurred and the response can still be considered ‘elastic’. The data sets are used with three system identification methods to determine the predominant period of response for each of the test configurations. One of the methods also determines the equivalent viscous damping ratio corresponding to the predominant period. It was found that the predominant period of the fixed‐base building lengthened from 0.52 to 1.30 s. This corresponded to a significant reduction in effective system stiffness to about 16% of the original stiffness. The paper then establishes a correlation between predominant period and peak ground velocity. Finally, the predominant periods and equivalent viscous damping ratios recommended by the ASCE 7‐10 loading standard are compared with those determined from the test building. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A stochastic estimation of sediment production in an urban catchment using the USLE model

The goals of this study were to map the spatial distribution of sediment production and to estimate the probability of this production at the waterline based on a high potential of silting. The RUSLE-GIS model and Monte Carlo simulation were used. A sensitivity analysis of stochastic factors was performed by calculating the simple correlation coefficient. This procedure was applied to the Estrada Nova catchment, located in the city of Belém, northern Brazil, which has been subject to channel improvements and the construction of a detention basin. The results indicate that, following the urbanization and drainage improvements, there was a reduction in the annual sediment production probability, which is consistent with the dynamics in land use. The erodibility was the most sensitive factor in the sedimentation estimates. The methodology was considered an alternative to estimate sediment production in an urban catchment.     

Seismic control of flexible rocking structures using inerters

Allowing flexible structures to uplift and rock during earthquakes can significantly reduce the force demands and residual displacements. However, such structures are still susceptible to large deformations and accelerations that can compromise their functionality. In this paper, we examine the dynamic response of elastic rocking oscillators and suggest that their lateral drifts and accelerations can be limited effectively by using inerter devices. To this end, we offer a detailed examination of the effects of structural flexibility on the efficiency of the proposed system. The analytical expressions governing the motion of deformable structures with base uplift are revisited to incorporate the effects of the supplemental rotational inertia. The proposed model is then used to study the structural demands of flexible rocking structures under coherent pulses as well as noncoherent real pulse-like ground motions. Our results show that combining rocking with inerters can be an efficient strategy to control the deformation and acceleration demands in uplifting flexible systems.     

A hybrid deterministic and stochastic approach for tsunami hazard assessment in Iquique,Chile

Natural Hazards - This paper presents an investigation of the collapse of a 325-year-old multi-tiered heritage temple during the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Kathmandu, Nepal. The research comprises a...