As Arctic sea ice declines in response to climate change, a shift from thick multiyear ice to a thinner ice cover is occurring. With this transition, ice thicknesses approach a threshold below which ice no longer insulates the atmosphere from oceanic surface fluxes. While this is well known, there are no estimates of the magnitude of this threshold, nor of the proportion of sea ice area that is below this threshold as ice thins. We determine this threshold by simulating the atmospheric response to varying thicknesses, ranging from 0.0 to 2.0 m and determine that threshold to be 0.40–0.50 m. The resulting “effective” ice area is 4–14% lower than reported total ice area, as 0.39–0.97 × 106 km2 of the total ice area falls below the threshold throughout the twentieth century, including during notable ice minima. The atmosphere above large non-insulating ice-covered regions is susceptible to more than 2 °C of warming despite ice presence. Observed mean Arctic Ocean ice thickness is projected to fall below this threshold as early as the mid-2020s. Studies on ocean–atmosphere interactions in relation to sea ice area should focus on this insulating sea ice area, where ice is at least 0.40–0.50 m thick, and treat ice regions below 0.40–0.50 m thickness with caution.
This study investigates relationships between Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) and the variability of the characteristics of the South American Monsoon System (SAMS), such as the onset dates and total precipitation over central eastern Brazil. The observed onset and total summer monsoon precipitation are estimated for the period 1979?C2007. SST patterns are obtained from the Empirical Orthogonal Function. It is shown that variations in SST on interannual timescales over the South Atlantic Ocean play an important role in the total summer monsoon precipitation. Negative (positive) SST anomalies over the topical South Atlantic along with positive (negative) SST anomalies over the extratropical South Atlantic are associated with early (late) onsets and wet (dry) summers over southeastern Brazil and late (early) onset and dry (wet) summers over northeastern Brazil. Simulations from Phase 3 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP-3) are assessed for the 20th century climate scenario (1971?C2000). Most CMIP3 coupled models reproduce the main modes of variability of the South Atlantic Ocean. GFDL2.0 and MIROC-M are the models that best represent the SST variability over the South Atlantic. On the other hand, these models do not succeed in representing the relationship between SST and SAMS variability. 相似文献
This work presents two software components aimed to relieve the costs of accessing high-performance parallel computing resources within a Python programming environment: MPI for Python and PETSc for Python.MPI for Python is a general-purpose Python package that provides bindings for the Message Passing Interface (MPI) standard using any back-end MPI implementation. Its facilities allow parallel Python programs to easily exploit multiple processors using the message passing paradigm. PETSc for Python provides access to the Portable, Extensible Toolkit for Scientific Computation (PETSc) libraries. Its facilities allow sequential and parallel Python applications to exploit state of the art algorithms and data structures readily available in PETSc for the solution of large-scale problems in science and engineering.MPI for Python and PETSc for Python are fully integrated to PETSc-FEM, an MPI and PETSc based parallel, multiphysics, finite elements code developed at CIMEC laboratory. This software infrastructure supports research activities related to simulation of fluid flows with applications ranging from the design of microfluidic devices for biochemical analysis to modeling of large-scale stream/aquifer interactions. 相似文献
A large multi-institutional nearshore field experiment was conducted at Truc Vert, on the Atlantic coast of France in early 2008. Truc Vert’08 was designed to measure beach change on a long, sandy stretch of coast without engineering works with emphasis on large winter waves (offshore significant wave height up to 8 m), a three-dimensional morphology, and macro-tidal conditions. Nearshore wave transformation, circulation and bathymetric changes involve coupled processes at many spatial and temporal scales thus implying the need to improve our knowledge for the full spectrum of scales to achieve a comprehensive view of the natural system. This experiment is unique when compared with existing experiments because of the simultaneous investigation of processes at different scales, both spatially (from ripples to sand banks) and temporally (from single swash events to several spring-neap tidal cycles, including a major storm event). The purpose of this paper is to provide background information on the experiment by providing detailed presentation of the instrument layout and snapshots of preliminary results. 相似文献
Compaction induced by pore‐pressure decrease inside a reservoir can be monitored by measuring traveltime shifts of reflection events on time‐lapse seismic data. Recently we introduced a perturbation‐based formalism to describe traveltime shifts caused by the 3D stress‐induced velocity field around a compacting reservoir. Application of this method to homogeneous background models showed that the offset variation of traveltime shifts is controlled primarily by the anisotropic velocity perturbations and can provide valuable information about the shear and deviatoric stresses. Here, we model and analyse traveltime shifts for compacting reservoirs whose elastic properties are different from those of the surrounding medium. For such models, the excess stress is influenced primarily by the contrast in the rigidity modulus μ across the reservoir boundaries. Synthetic examples demonstrate that a significant (25% or more) contrast in μ enhances the isotropic velocity perturbations outside the reservoir. Nevertheless, the influence of background heterogeneity is mostly confined to the reservoir and its immediate vicinity and the anisotropic velocity changes are still largely responsible for the offset dependence of traveltime shifts. If the reservoir is stiffer than the host rock, the background heterogeneity reduces anisotropic velocity perturbations inside the reservoir but increases them in the overburden. As a result, in this case, the magnitude of the offset variation of traveltime shifts is generally higher for reflections from interfaces above the reservoir. We also study compaction‐induced stress/strain and traveltime shifts for a stiff reservoir embedded in a softer layered model based on velocity profiles from the Valhall Field in the North Sea. Despite producing discontinuities in strain across medium interfaces, horizontal layering does not substantially alter the overall behaviour of traveltime shifts. The most pronounced offset variation of traveltime shifts is observed for overburden events recorded at common midpoints close to the reservoir edges. On the whole, prestack analysis of traveltime shifts should help better constrain compaction‐induced velocity perturbations in the presence of realistic background heterogeneity. 相似文献
During the Pleistocene a fauna composed of large (biomass > 44 kg) and giant mammals (biomass > 1000 kg) that are usually associated with open environments lived in the Brazilian Intertropical Region. We present here new information concerning the paleoecology and chronology of some species of this megafauna. Carbon isotope analyses were performed for a better understanding of the paleoecology of the species Eremotherium laurillardi (Lund, 1842), Notiomastodon platensis (Ameghino, 1888) and Toxodon platensis (Owen, 1849). The δ13C data allow attributing a generalist diet to these species, which varied according to the kind of habitat in which they lived. In more open habitats all species were grazers; in mixed habitats E. laurillardi and T. platensis were mixed feeders, and N. platensis was grazer; and in more closed habitats all species were mixed feeders. 相似文献
The two-dimensional barotropic, hydrodynamic and transport model MOHID is applied to the Patos Lagoon system using a nested modelling approach to reproduce both the lagoon and estuary hydrodynamics. A new Lagrangian oil spill model is presented and used to simulate a hypothetical oil spill in the estuary. Hydrodynamic fields are validated and used to force the oil model. Results show that the hydrodynamics of this system is mainly controlled by the wind and freshwater discharge. The dispersion, concentration and thickness evolution of the oil in the first day after the spill is determined by the equilibrium between these two factors. The freshwater discharge is the major factor controlling the oil dispersion for discharges greater than 5000 m3 while the wind assumes control for lower discharge amounts. The results presented are a first step toward a coastal management tool for the Patos Lagoon. 相似文献
We analyze remarkable examples of the large ( 10,000 km2) and local-scale ( 100 km2) landscape forms related to Late Cenozoic geomorphologic evolution of the Andean forearc region in the Southern Atacama Desert. We also consider the continental sedimentary deposits, so-called “Atacama Gravels”, which are related to the degradation of the landscape during the Neogene. Our analysis integrates 1:50,000 field cartography, Landsat TM images observations, 1:1000 sedimentary logging data, and 50 m horizontal resolution topographic data to reconstruct the Late Cenozoic geomorphologic evolution of this region and discuss the factors that control it, i.e., Miocene aridification of the climate and Neogene Central Andean uplift. We determine that the Precordillera was already formed in the Oligocene and most of the present-day altitude of the Precordillera was reached before that time. Afterward, five episodes of geomorphologic evolution can be differentiated: (1) the development of an Oligocene deep incised drainage system cutting the uplifted Precordillera (up to 2000 m of vertical incision) and connecting it to the Ocean; followed by (2) the infilling of deep incised valleys by up to 400 m of Atacama Gravels. This infill started in the Early Miocene with the development of fluvial deposition and finished in the Middle Miocene with playa and playa lake depositions. We propose that playa-related deposition occurs in an endorheic context related to tectonic activity of the Atacama Fault System and Coastal Cordillera uplift. However, the upward sedimentologic variation in the Atacama Gravels evidences a progressive aridification of the climate. Subsequently, we have identified the effects of the Middle–Upper Miocene slow tectonic deformation: the Neogene Andean uplift is accommodated by a tilting or flexuring of the inner-forearc (Central Depression and Precordillera) related to some hundreds of meters of uplift in the Precordillera. This tilting or flexuring results in (3) the Middle Miocene re-opening of the valley network to the Pacific Ocean. Upper Miocene aridification, from arid to hyperarid, induces alluvial fans backfilling in the Central Depression (4) resulting in up to 50 m of Atacama Gravel deposition. Finally, in response to an increase in the rate of tilting, a new phase of vertical incision (up to 800 m in the Precordillera) allows the development of the canyon that crosses the forearc (5). 相似文献