Singular spectrum analysis and forecasting of hydrological time series

The singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique is applied to some hydrological univariate time series to assess its ability to uncover important information from those series, and also its forecast skill. The SSA is carried out on annual precipitation, monthly runoff, and hourly water temperature time series. Information is obtained by extracting important components or, when possible, the whole signal from the time series. The extracted components are then subject to forecast by the SSA algorithm. It is illustrated the SSA ability to extract a slowly varying component (i.e. the trend) from the precipitation time series, the trend and oscillatory components from the runoff time series, and the whole signal from the water temperature time series. The SSA was also able to accurately forecast the extracted components of these time series.     

Denitrification-nitrification process in permeable coastal sediments: An investigation on the effect of salinity and nitrate availability using flow-through reactors

Permeable coastal sediments act as a reactive node in the littoral zone,transforming nutrients via a wide range of biogeochemical reactions.Reaction rates are controlled by abiotic factors,e.g.,salinity,temperature or solute concentration.Here,a series of incubation experiments,using flow-through reactors,were conducted to simulate the biogeochemical cycling of nitrate (NO_3~?) and phosphorus (P) in permeable sediments under differentNO_3~?availability conditions (factor I) along a salinity gradient (admixture of river and seawater,factor II).In an oligotrophic scenario,i.e.,unamendedNO_3~?concentrations in both river and seawater,sediments acted as a permanent net source ofNO_3~?to the water column.The peak production rate occurred at an intermediate salinity(20).IncreasingNO_3~?availability in river water significantly enhanced netNO_3~?removal rates within the salinity range of 0 to 30,likely via the denitrification pathway based on the sediment microbiota composition.In this scenario,the most active removal was obtained at salinity of 10.When both river and seawater were spiked with NO_3~?,the highest removal rate switched to the highest salinity (36).It suggests the salinity preference of theNO_3~?removal pathway by local denitrifiers (e.g.,Bacillus and Paracoccus) and thatNO_3~?removal in coastal sediments can be significantly constrained by the dilution relatedNO_3~?availability.Compared with the obtained variation forNO_3~?reactions,permeable sediments acted as a sink of soluble reactive P in all treatments,regardless of salinity andNO_3~?input concentrations,indicating a possibility of P-deficiency for coastal water from the intensive cycling in permeable sediments.Furthermore,the net production of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in all treatments was positively correlated with the measuredNO_3~?reaction rates,indicating that the DOC supply may not be the key factor forNO_3~?removal rates due to the consumption by intensive aerobic respiration.Considering the intensive production of recalcitrant carbon solutes,the active denitrification was assumed to be supported by sedimentary organic matter.     

Intragroup diffuse light in compact groups of galaxies – II. HCG 15, 35 and 51

This continuing study of intragroup light in compact groups of galaxies aims to establish new constraints to models of formation and evolution of galaxy groups, specially of compact groups, which are a key part in the evolution of larger structures, such as clusters. In this paper we present three additional groups (HCG 15, 35 and 51) using deep wide-field B - and R -band images observed with the LAICA camera at the 3.5-m telescope at the Calar Alto observatory (CAHA). This instrument provides us with very stable flat-fielding, a mandatory condition for reliably measuring intragroup diffuse light. The images were analysed with the ov_wav package, a wavelet technique that allows us to uncover the intragroup component in an unprecedented way. We have detected that 19, 15 and 26 per cent of the total light of HCG 15, 35 and 51, respectively, are in the diffuse component, with colours that are compatible with old stellar populations and with mean surface brightness that can be as low as 28.4 B mag arcsec⁻². Dynamical masses, crossing times and mass-to-light ratios were recalculated using the new group parameters. Also tidal features were analysed using the wavelet technique.     

The surface radiation budget over South America in a set of regional climate models from the CLARIS-LPB project

The performance of seven regional climate models in simulating the radiation and heat fluxes at the surface over South America (SA) is evaluated. Sources of uncertainty and errors are identified. All simulations have been performed in the context of the CLARIS-LPB Project for the period 1990–2008 and are compared with the GEWEX-SRB, CRU, and GLDAS2 dataset and NCEP-NOAA reanalysis. Results showed that most of the models overestimate the net surface short-wave radiation over tropical SA and La Plata Basin and underestimate it over oceanic regions. Errors in the short-wave radiation are mainly associated with uncertainties in the representation of surface albedo and cloud fraction. For the net surface long-wave radiation, model biases are diverse. However, the ensemble mean showed a good agreement with the GEWEX-SRB dataset due to the compensation of individual model biases. Errors in the net surface long-wave radiation can be explained, in a large proportion, by errors in cloud fraction. For some particular models, errors in temperature also contribute to errors in the net long-wave radiation. Analysis of the annual cycle of each component of the energy budget indicates that the RCMs reproduce generally well the main characteristics of the short- and long-wave radiations in terms of timing and amplitude. However, a large spread among models over tropical SA is apparent. The annual cycle of the sensible heat flux showed a strong overestimation in comparison with the reanalysis and GLDAS2 dataset. For the latent heat flux, strong differences between the reanalysis and GLDAS2 are calculated particularly over tropical SA.     

Expansion of an invasive coral species over Abrolhos Bank,Southwestern Atlantic

Invasive coral species of the genus Tubastraea have been increasingly recorded in Southwestern Atlantic waters since the 1980s. Their invasion and infestation are mainly related to port and oil exploration activities. For the first time the presence of Tubastraea tagusensis colonies is reported in Espírito Santo State, colonizing a port shore area, and incrusting oil/gas platform structures situated in the southern Abrolhos Bank, which is part of the most important coral reef system of the South Atlantic Ocean. Tubastraea colonies exhibit fast growth and high recruitment rates, and colonized 40% of the analyzed structures in just four years. The projection of port and oil/gas industry growth for the Espírito Santo State (more than 300%) highlights an alert to the dispersal of this alien species to natural areas.     

Measuring α in the Early Universe

We update the bounds on a time-varying fine structure constant α at the time of BBN (z∼10¹⁰) and CMB (z∼10³) and present the current CMB constraints on α, through a combined analysis of the BOOMERanG, MAXIMA and DASI datasets. We also present a discussion of the constraints on α coming from large-scale structure observations, focusing in particular on the power spectrum from the 2dF survey. Finally we provide a analysis of the degeneracies between α and the other cosmological parameters and discuss ways to break these with both existing and/or forthcoming data. Our results are consistent with no variation in α from the epoch of recombination to the present day, and restrict any such variation to be less than about 4%.We show that the forthcoming MAP and Planck experiments will be able to break most of the currently existing degeneracies between α and other parameters, and measure α to better than percent accuracy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

An assessment of the latent and sensible heat flux on the simulated regional climate over Southwestern South Atlantic Ocean

A Regional Climate Model (RegCM3) 10-year (1990–1999) simulation over southwestern South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) is evaluated to assess the mean climatology and the simulation errors of turbulent fluxes over the sea. Moreover, the relationship between these fluxes and the rainfall over some cyclogenetic areas is also analyzed. The RegCM3 results are validated using some reanalyses datasets (ERA40, R2, GPCP and WHOI). The summer and winter spatial patterns of latent and sensible heat fluxes simulated by the RegCM3 are in agreement with the reanalyses (WHOI, R2 and ERA40). They show large latent heat fluxes exchange in the subtropical SAO and at higher latitudes in the warm waters of Brazil Current. In particular, the magnitude of RegCM3 latent heat fluxes is similar to the WHOI, which is probably related to two factors: (a) small specific humidity bias, and (b) the RegCM3 flux algorithm. In contrast, the RegCM3 presents large overestimation of sensible heat flux, though it simulates well their spatial pattern. This simulation error is associated with the RegCM3 underestimation of the 2-m air temperature. In southwestern SAO, in three known cyclogenetic areas, the reanalyses and the RegCM3 show the existence of different physical mechanisms that control the annual cycles of latent/sensible heating and rainfall. It is shown that over the eastern coast of Uruguay (35°–43°S) and the southeastern coast of Argentina (44°–52°S) the sea-air moisture and heat exchange play an important role to control the annual cycle of precipitation. This does not happen on the south/southeastern coast of Brazil.     

Environmental issues in urban groundwater systems: a multidisciplinary study of the Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters,Porto (NW Portugal)

This study presents the results of a multidisciplinary approach, using hydrogeochemical, isotopic and ecotoxicological analyses, performed to assess the nature and suitability for use of Paranhos and Salgueiros spring waters (Porto city, NW Portugal). Based on the surface activities located along the course of the springs, 23 water samples were collected. All the samples were analysed for major element concentrations. The isotopic techniques employed included δ²H, δ¹⁸O and ³H. Standard acute bioassays with Daphnia magna were also performed. The hydrogeochemical analyses showed a nitrate and sulphate-enriched composition for these groundwaters, resulting mainly from urban drainage and sewer leakage. In the ecotoxicological analyses, no significant mortality was observed in any of the tests performed. The results obtained in this study suggest that Porto urban groundwater could be suitable for irrigation uses.     

Mercury in itabirite-hosted soft hematite ore in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais

Mercury contents in Precambrian banded iron formation-hosted hematite ores are virtually unknown. In an attempt to provide information on the abundance and distribution of Hg in Fe ore, we present analyses for Hg in samples of high-grade soft hematite ore from Gongo Soco, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Bulk samples contain from <  5 to 25  ppb Hg without obvious correlation with major elements. Granulometric fractions of follow-up samples have amounts of Hg from 6 to 48  ppb and display positive linear correlations with total Mn as MnO (r = 0.87), LOI (r = 0.87) and SiO₂ (r = 0.76), as well as a negative linear correlation with total Fe as Fe₂O₃ (r = −  0.87). The correlations suggest that Hg is associated with a hydrated ferruginous groundmass bearing residual Mn, Al and Si, which replaced gangue minerals in itabirite in the process of formation of the Gongo Soco soft hematite ore.     

Climate change impact on precipitation for the Amazon and La Plata basins

We analyze the local and remote impacts of climate change on the hydroclimate of the Amazon and La Plata basins of South America (SA) in an ensemble of four 21st century projections (1970–2100, RCP8.5 scenario) with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by the HadGEM, GFDL and MPI global climate models (GCMs) over the SA CORDEX domain. Two RegCM4 configurations are used, one employing the CLM land surface and the Emanuel convective schemes, and one using the BATS land surface and Grell (over land) convection schemes. First, we find considerable sensitivity of the precipitation change signal to both the driving GCM and the RegCM4 physics schemes (with the latter even greater than the first), highlighting the pronounced uncertainty of regional projections over the region. However, some improvements in the simulation of the annual cycle of precipitation over the Amazon and La Plata basins is found when using RegCM4, and some consistent change signals across the experiments are found. One is a tendency towards an extension of the dry season over central SA deriving from a late onset and an early retreat of the SA monsoon. The second is a dipolar response consisting of reduced precipitation over the broad Amazon and Central Brazil region and increased precipitation over the La Plata basin and central Argentina. An analysis of the relative influence on the change signal of local soil-moisture feedbacks and remote effects of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the Niño 3.4 region indicates that the former is prevalent over the Amazon basin while the latter dominates over the La Plata Basin. Also, the soil moisture feedback has a larger role in RegCM4 than in the GCMs.