Adaptive balance of global development processes

We study the processes of global self-regulation of Earth’s biota (GAIA-theory) by applying the method of adaptive balance of causes proposed by the authors. By using, as an example, the Daisy World model constructed by this method, we reveal the phenomenon of preservation of the mean temperature of Earth’s surface due to the presence of the vegetation cover. We develop an integral model of global natural, social, and economic processes in which the World Ocean is one of the factors regulating the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The decrease in the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere caused by the GAIA-effects increases the number of hurricanes and floods on the Earth. As a result, the levels of ecological and social hazards for the mankind become much higher. To eliminate these threats, it is necessary to intensify the processes of self-organization of the society realized via the improvement of education, development of science, and global regulation of the competition for natural resources. We present the results of numerical experiments performed by using the model demonstrating possible scenarios of global development with regard for the processes of self-organization of the society. __________ Translated From Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 3, Pp. 62–80, May–June, 2007.     

On one possibility of studying the cyclonic regime

The dynamics of some characteristics of a cyclonic situation (cyclonic regime) of the northwestern Pacific cyclonic zone is studied. The characteristics that are considered are the density of cyclonic energy at a point (intensity) and the power over a given area. In the model, the intensity at a point is defined as the sum of all intensities of preceding cyclones, with consideration for their spatial and temporal separation from the given point. Power for a given moment and a given area is defined as the sum of intensities over this area. Cyclonically active seasons are considered. The dynamics of the power was estimated for areas of different size. It is shown that the point values of cyclonic intensity, at the times of their maximum, are statistically related to one another by a negative power-law dependence. Periodicity is observed in the time evolution of the power in different areas.     

Assessment of the effectiveness of POLYMODE data assimilation by a numerical barotropic model for synoptic motions

This paper considers the results of numerical experiments involving POLYMODE data assimilation by a barotropic model for synoptic ocean dynamics. The model's response the data assimilation for various space-time discretenesses of assimilation is studied. Results derived from the application of optimal interpolation algorithms and modified optimal filtration algorithms are compared. Qualitative similarity to the calculations carried out through the simulation modelling technique is noted. Optimal assimilation algorithms are determined, depending on the space-time discreteness used. An optimal sampling discreteness for the POLYMODE conditions is suggested.Translated by Vladimir A. Puchkin.     

On the possibility of forecasting the long-term air temperature variability that determines the hydrophysical structure and ecology of the Black Sea waters

Periods and amplitudes of long-term temperature fluctuations were obtained using the methods of spectral analysis and filtration of secular time series of the air temperature at 13 hydrometeorological stations in the Black Sea region. The prognostic calculations of the long-term air temperature variability are based on the results of processing of time series. The calculations of the air temperature agree with the data of observations. The possibility of the long-term air temperature variability prediction is shown.     

Horizontal and Vertical Structure of Geostrophic Currents in the Black Sea According to the Data of the Summer Survey Performed as a Part of the ComSBlack-92 Program

We describe the methodology and software developed for the numerical analysis of the characteristics of the horizontal and vertical structure of geostrophic currents. We present the results of computation of these characteristics according to the data of the summer survey of the Black Sea carried out as a part of the ComSBlack-92 program. The distinctive features of the space structure of geostrophic currents discovered as a result and the established parameters of their variability may supplement the existing data on the current field in the Black Sea.     

Analysis of solutions to the inverse problem on the retrieval of the microstructure of stratospheric aerosol from satellite measurements

A statistical ensemble of microphysical parameters of the background stratospheric aerosol at altitudes of 15 to 30 km is modeled on the basis of experimental data. The aerosol attenuation coefficients (AACs) in the wavelength range 0.38–16.3 μm are calculated for all realizations of the ensemble by algorithms of the Mie theory. Analysis of correlations between the AACs and the microphysical parameters indicate that the AAC correlates most strongly with the total volume V and area S of all particles. The errors of determining the microphysical parameters from AAC measurements are analyzed via the method of linear regression. It is shown that, if the AAC is measured with an error of 5%, the errors of determining both the particle size distribution (PSD) for particles with sizes of 0.4 to 4 μm and the parameter S are an order of magnitude smaller than the prior uncertainty, whereas the error of determining V is two orders of magnitude smaller than the prior uncertainty. Schemes of AAC measurements with the SAGE III, ISAMS, CLAES, HALOE instruments and an IR interferometer in the visible and IR regions are discussed. It is shown that combining the schemes makes it possible to extend the range of particle sizes for which the PSD is retrieved with a satisfactory accuracy and to increase the accuracy of determining S and V substantially and the accuracy of determining the total number of particles N _opt to a lesser extent. Examples of interpreting AAC measurements carried out simultaneously with the SAGE III and HALOE instruments within the same spatial region are presented. A systematic discrepancy between vertical profiles of S and V obtained from SAGE III and HALOE measurements is revealed.