Assessing regression‐based statistical approaches for downscaling precipitation over North America

This paper assesses linear regression‐based methods in downscaling daily precipitation from the general circulation model (GCM) scale to a regional climate model (RCM) scale (45‐ and 15‐km grids) and down to a station scale across North America. Traditional downscaling experiments (linking reanalysis/dynamical model predictors to station precipitation) as well as nontraditional experiments such as predicting dynamic model precipitation from larger‐scale dynamic model predictors or downscaling dynamic model precipitation from predictors at the same scale are conducted. The latter experiments were performed to address predictability limit and scale issues. The results showed that the downscaling of daily precipitation occurrence was rarely successful at all scales, although results did constantly improve with the increased resolution of climate models. The explained variances for downscaled precipitation amounts at the station scales were low, and they became progressively better when using predictors from a higher‐resolution climate model, thus showing a clear advantage in using predictors from RCMs driven by reanalysis at its boundaries, instead of directly using reanalysis data. The low percentage of explained variances resulted in considerable underestimation of daily precipitation mean and standard deviation. Although downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors (or RCM precipitation from RCM predictors) cannot really be considered downscaling, as there is no change in scale, the exercise yields interesting information as to the limit in predictive ability at the station scale. This was especially clear at the GCM scale, where the inability of downscaling GCM precipitation from GCM predictors demonstrates that GCM precipitation‐generating processes are largely at the subgrid scale (especially so for convective events), thus indicating that downscaling precipitation at the station scale from GCM scale is unlikely to be successful. Although results became better at the RCM scale, the results indicate that, overall, regression‐based approaches did not perform well in downscaling precipitation over North America. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A mapping of the electron localization function for the silica polymorphs: evidence for domains of electron pairs and sites of potential electrophilic attack

The electron localization function, η, evaluated for first-principles geometry optimized model structures generated for quartz and coesite, reveals that the oxide anions are coordinated by two hemispherically shaped η-isosurfaces located along each of the SiO bond vectors comprising the SiOSi angles. With one exception, they are also coordinated by larger banana-shaped isosurfaces oriented perpendicular to the plane centered in the vicinity of the apex of each angle. The hemispherical isosurfaces, ascribed to domains of localized bond-pair electrons, are centered ～0.70 Å along the bond vectors from the oxide anions and the banana-shaped isosurfaces, ascribed to domains of localized nonbonding lone-pair electrons, are centered ～0.60 Å from the apex of the angle. The oxide anion comprising the straight SiOSi angle in coesite is the one exception in that the banana-shaped isosurface is missing; however, it is coordinated by two hemispherically shaped isosurfaces that lie along the bond vectors. In the case of a first-principles model structure generated for stishovite, the oxide anion is coordinated by five hemispherically shaped η-isosurfaces, one located along each of the three SiO bond vectors (ascribed to domains of bonding-electron pairs) that are linked to the anion with the remaining two (ascribed to domains of nonbonding-electron pairs) located on opposite sides of the plane defined by three vectors, each isosurface at a distance of ～0.5 Å from the anion. The distribution of the five isosurfaces is in a one-to-one correspondence with the distribution of the maxima displayed by experimental Δρ and theoretical ??²ρ maps. Isosurface η maps calculated for quartz and the (HO) ₃ SiOSi(OH) ₃ molecule also exhibit maxima that correspond with the (3,?3) maxima displayed by distributions of ??²ρ. Deformation maps observed for the SiOSi bridges for the silica polymorphs and a number of silicates are similar to that calculated for the molecule but, for the majority, the maxima ascribed to lone-pair features are absent. The domains of localized nonbonding-electron pair coordinating the oxide anions of quartz and coesite provide a basis for explaining the flexibility and the wide range of the SiOSi angles exhibited by the silica polymorphs with four-coordinate Si. They also provide a basis for explaining why the SiO bond length in coesite decreases with increasing angle. As found in studies of the interactions of solute molecules with a solvent, a mapping of η-isosurfaces for geometry-optimized silicates is expected to become a powerful tool for deducing potential sites of electrophilic attack and reactivity for Earth materials. The positions of the features ascribed to the lone pairs in coesite correspond with the positions of the H atoms recently reported for an H-doped coesite crystal.     

Assessment of groundwater contamination from a hazardous dump site in Ranipet, Tamil Nadu, India

Tanneries located in an industrial development area of Ranipet (India) manufactured chromate chemicals during 1976?C1996. A large quantity of associated hazardous solid wastes has been stacked about 5-m high above ground level, spread over 3.5?ha inside one of the factory premises. The study area receives an average annual rainfall of 1,100?mm. The granitic formation in the northern part of Palar River catchment has high infiltration rates and has resulted in fast migration of the contamination to the water table. Chromium levels in the groundwater were found up to 275?mg/l. The available hydrogeological, geophysical and groundwater quality data bases have been used to construct a groundwater flow and mass transport model for assessing the groundwater contamination and it has been calibrated for the next 30?years. The migration has been found to be very slow, with a groundwater velocity of 10?m/year. This is the first field-scale study of its kind in this industrial area. The findings are of relevance to addressing the groundwater pollution due to indiscriminate disposal practices of hazardous waste in areas located on the phreatic aquifer. Further, it has been reported that the untreated effluent discharge adjacent to the chromium dump site is most influential in the migration of contaminants.     

Structure and dynamics of the Bok globule B335

CO maps of the Bok globule B335 are presented and used to derive its density profile, mass distribution, and rotational velocity structure. It is found that the cloud is in nearly hydrostatic equilibrium with a density profile that varies roughly as r^?1 in the core and r^?3 in the envelope. The observed rotation is unimportant in the force balance at the present stage of evolution.     

Petrochemical Study of Lherzolitic Rocks from the Western Alps

An integrated geologic and petrochemical comparative study offive peridotite complexes in the western Alps has been undertaken.Investigated bodies are exposed at Alpe Arami in southern Switzerland,and at Finero, Balmuccia, Baldissero and Lanzo in northwesternItaly. The Alpe Arami mass has been tectonically emplaced withinthe Lepontine gneiss terrane of the in part subducted, morenortherly European lithospheric plate, whereas the other fourultramafic masses represent original portions of the non-subductedSouth Alpine plate. Eighty samples were examined petrographically. Most are lherzolites,but a few are clinopyroxene-bearing harzburgites, olivine websteritesor clinopyroxenite. Alpe Arami peridotites locally contain primarygarnet (± minor spinel); in contrast, the South Alpinelherzolites are spinel bearing, and in addition, the Lanzo massifcontains widespread plagioclase. All masses display strain effectssuch as bent lamellae in pyroxenes, gradational or sectoraloptical extinction, and minor recrystallization. Twenty-fourbulk XRF analyses demonstrate that the investigated rocks fairlyclosely match pyrolite composition, but are slightly impoverishedin alumina. The normative olivines of all analyzed specimenshave Fa contents ranging between 8 and 10 mole per cent. Electronmicroprobe analyses for 26 olivines, 27 orthopyroxenes, 23 calcicpyroxenes, three garnets, 18 spinels, three plagioclases, 13calcic amphiboles, two chlorites and two phlogopites are presented.Phases in a particular sample are remarkably homogeneous, anobservation consistent with an inferred close approach to chemicalequilibrium. Use of various two-pyroxene geothermometers allows the followingassignments of grand average apparent temperatures for the fiveperidotite complexes: Alpe Arami, 966±78°C; Finero,893 ± 94°C; Balmuccia, 973 ± 50°C; Baldissero,1002 ± 37°C; and Lanzo, 1069 ± 85°C. Pressureestimates, determined using the lherzolitic petrogenetic grid,Al₂O₃^cpx and Al₂O₃^opx isopleths, involve large uncertainties.The Alpe Arami ultramafic body evidently crystallized at a pressureof 40 ± 10 kilobars, the nominal value depending on themethod of computation. In contrast, the South Alpine spinellherzolites seem to have last equilibrated at pressures of approximately5–20 kb. The deep upper-mantle source region of the AlpeArami body apparently was subjected to a subcontinental-typegeothermal gradient, consistent with solid-state rise of thismass and Late Alpine tectonic insertion in the old Lepontinesialic crust of the European lithospheric plate. The mechanismand driving force of this process remain obscure. In contrast,the investigated spinel peridotite complexes of the South Alpinelithospheric plate seem to have been derived from shallow, uppermostmantle sections characterized by oceanic geothermal gradients.For this reason it is conjectured that these massifs were derivedfrom the northern margin of the southern plate where continentalcrust evidently was moderately thin or absent. Their upliftand overthrusting involved P-T paths which in most cases alloweddecompression partial recrystallization and incipient fusion,the latter indicated by the presence of transecting mafic dikesand segregations associated with the peridotites. The Finerobody appears to have reached its present position at the baseof the South Alpine continental crust in pre-Mesozoic time,whereas the Lanzo complex was tectonically involved in the EarlyAlpine orogeny.     

Radio Emission from Masuda Sources

We note that different models, providing comparably good interpretation of the hard X-ray properties of so-called Masuda sources, can make distinctly different predictions for the radio emission produced at the Masuda source by the same population of accelerated electrons. Accordingly, we calculate the radio emission within a few competing models, i.e., those involving magnetic, turbulent, and collisional trapping of the fast electrons in the coronal source. We show that even available incomplete radio observations of the classical Masuda event and a Masuda-like event on 31 December 2007, recently reported by Krucker et al. (Astrophys. J. 714, 1108, 2010) are highly valuable in restricting the physical model of the source. Furthermore, our study proposes that combination of more complete high-resolution X-ray and radio observations can allow unambiguous distinction between the competing Masuda source models.     

A record of accelerated erosion in the recent sediments of Blelham Tarn in the English Lake district

Two frozen cores from Blelham Tarn were subsampled and measured using mineral magnetic, loss-on-ignition (LOI), radiometric, granulometric and diatom analyses. A detailed chronology was established using varves, radioisotopes and diatoms. This has enabled an accurately dated reconstruction of sedimentation over the past forty years. Despite a large increase in lake productivity, evidence suggests that the observed exponential increase in sedimentation rates can be attributed to erosion within the catchment. The predominant sediment source has been identified as surface soil. A comparison between the trend of accelerated sedimentation and the record of increased sheep stocking density for the area within which the most of the catchment lies, as well as observations of contemporary surface processes within the catchment, both suggest that much of the recent erosion is a direct response to increased pressure from sheep grazing.     

Nature of microstructure in pulsar radio emission

We present a model for microstructure in pulsar radio emission. We propose that micropulses result from alteration of the radio wave generation region by nearly transverse drift waves propagating across the pulsar magnetic field and encircling the bundle of the open magnetic field lines. It is demonstrated that such waves can modify the curvature of the field lines significantly. This, in turn, affects strongly fulfilment of the resonance conditions necessary for the excitation of radio waves. The time-scale of micropulses is therefore determined by the wavelength of the drift waves. The main features of the microstructure are naturally explained within the framework of this model.     

Evaluation of distributed recharge in an upland semi-arid karst system: the West Bank Mountain Aquifer,Middle East

Assessment of recharge in a structurally complex upland karst limestone aquifer situated in a semi-arid environment is difficult. Resort to surrogate indicators such as measurement of spring outflow and borehole discharge, is a common alternative, and attempts to apply conventional soil moisture deficit analysis may not adequately account for the intermittent spate conditions that arise in such environments. A modelling approach has been made using the West Bank Mountain Aquifer system in the Middle East as a trial. The model uses object oriented software which allows various objects to be switched on and off. Each of the main recharge processes identified in the West Bank is incorporated. The model allows either conventional soil moisture deficit analysis calculations or wetting threshold calculations to be made as appropriate, and accommodates both direct recharge and secondary recharge. Daily time steps enable recharge and runoff routing to be calculated for each node. Model runs have enabled a series of simulations for each of the three aquifer basins in the West Bank and for the whole of the West Bank. These provide recharge estimates comparable to those prepared by earlier workers by conventional means. The model is adaptable and has been successfully used in other environments.     

Modelling dispersion in complex open channel flows: Fuzzy calibration (2)

Part 1 of this study assessed the effectiveness of dispersion models based around random particle tracking (RPT) applied an overbank flow in the Flood Channel Facility at HR Wallingford. Several of the RPT models that were used predicted the mixing behaviour of the tracer in the complex channel flow to within an acceptable accuracy. If there is no uniqueness in the model structure which can be used to represent the true system to within the limitations of the available observations, then this implies an inherent degree of ambiguity in our knowledge of the physically based model structure. This suggests that we should be less forthright in the optimisation of each individual model structure, and perhaps investigate more of the parameter combinations for each model which yield feasible simulations of the system. An alternative fuzzy calibration technique is introduced which avoids the optimisation process and takes account of uncertainties in the model structure, parameter sets and observed data in prediction.