Rejuvenation of Lake Erie

The positive ecological changes that have occurred in Lake Erie since the mid-1970, demonstrate that an extensively degraded aquatic ecosystem can be rejuventated. This rejuvenation should provide encouragement to other who are attempting to save such habitats as the Aral Sea. This paper summarizes the problems of Lake Erie, the meassures instituted to correct the problems and the result of remediation efforts.     

On the use of ‘first spotless day’ as a predictor for sunspot minimum

Defining the first spotless day of a sunspot cycle as the first day without spots relative to sunspot maximum during the decline of the solar cycle, one finds that the timing of that occurrence can be used as a predictor for the occurrence of solar minimum of the following cycle. For cycle 22, the first spotless day occurred in April 1994, based on the International sunspot number index, although other indices (Boulder and American) indicated the first spotless day to have occurred earlier (September 1993). For cycles 9–14, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 72 months, having a range of 62–82 months; for cycles 15–21, sunspot minimum followed the first spotless day by about 35 months, having a range of 27–40 months. Similarly, the timing of first spotless day relative to sunspot minimum and maximum for the same cycle reveals that it followed minimum (maximum) by about 69 (18) months during cycles 9–14 and by about 90 (44) months during cycles 15–21. Accepting April 1994 as the month of first spotless day occurrence for cycle 22, one finds that it occurred 91 months into the cycle and 57 months following sunspot maximum. Such values indicate that its behavior more closely matches that found for cycles 15–21 rather than for cycles 9–14. Therefore, one infers that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 will occur in about 2–3 years, or about April 1996 to April 1997. Accepting the earlier date of first spotless day occurrence indicates that sunspot minimum for cycle 23 could come several months earlier, perhaps late 1995.The U.S. Government right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Spectral reflectance change and luminescence of selected salts during 2–10 KeV proton bombardment: Implications for Io

Radiation damage and luminescence, caused by magnetospheric charged particles, have been suggested by several authors as mechanisms for explaining some of the peculiar spectral/albedo features of Io. We have pursued this possibility by measuring the uv-visual spectral reflectance and luminescent efficiency of several proposed Io surface constituents during 2 to 10-keV proton irradiation at room temperature and at low temperature (120 < T < 140°K). The spectral reflectance of NaCl and KCl during proton irradiation exhibits the well-known F-center absorption bands at 4580 and 5560 Å. Na₂SO₄ shows a generalized darkening which increases toward longer wavelengths. NaNO₃ shows a spectral reflectance change indicative of the partial alteration of NaNo₃ to NaNo₂. NaNO₂ shows no change. The luminescent efficiencies of NaCl and KCl are ～10^?4 at 300°K and increase by one-half order of magnitude at ～130°K. The efficiencies of K₂CO₃, Na₂CO₃, Na₂SO₄, and NaNO₃ are 10^?4, 10^?4, 10^?5 and 10^?6, respectively, at 300°K and they all decrease by one-half order of magnitude at ～130°K. These results indicate that magnetospheric proton irradiation of Io could cause spectral features in its observed ultraviolet and visible reflection spectrum if salts such as those studied here are present on its surface. However, because the magnitude of these spectral effects is dependent on competing factors such as surface temperature, incident particle energy flux, solar bleaching effects, and trace element abundance, we are unable at this time to make a quantitative estimate of the strength of these spectral effects on Io. The luminescent efficiencies of pure samples that we have studied in the laboratory suggest that charged-particle induced luminescence from Io's surface might be observable by a spacecraft such as Voyager when viewing Io's dark side.     

Spectropolarimetry of the methane and ammonia bands of Jupiter between 6800 and 8200 Å

Spectropolarimetry of Jupiter at resolutions between 22 and 35 Å reveals a strong increase of linear polarization in the 7250-$\text{A}\text{?}$ CH₄ band. This is very probably due to the decreasing contribution toward the band center of the higher orders of scattering, which have a smaller net polarization than the first few orders. The linear polarization is also enhanced in the band at 7900 $\text{A}\text{?}$ comprising the 7920-$\text{A}\text{?}$ NH₃ and 7600- to 8200-$\text{A}\text{?}$ CH₄ bands. The normalized circular polarization shows a feature at 7250 $\text{A}\text{?}$ with a dispersion shape. This is most probably produced in a double-scattering process involving either a solid or liquid aerosol with an absorption at 7250 $\text{A}\text{?}$. Methane aerosols, the obvious candidates from a spectroscopic point of view, are, however, forbidden if current estimates of the Jovian atmospheric temperature are correct.     

An improved transformation-elimination technique for the solution of perturbed Hamiltonian systems

A Lie transformation technique proposed by the author (1977) utilizing an approach due to Kolmogorov and Arnol'd is modified to eliminate the calculation of unproductive terms. Special features of the original method — the ability to eliminate simultaneously both short- and long-period terms, and [formal] quadratic convergence for non-degenerate system sand nearly quadratic convergence for degenerate systems—are retained in an even more efficient technique. Comparisons of the new method with other available Lie transform techniques is made.     

A search for natural or artificial objects located at the Earth-Moon libration points

Photographs in the vicinity of the Earth-Moon triangular libration points L4 and L5, and of the solar-synchronized positions in the associated halo orbits (A. A. Kamel, 1969, Ph.D. dissertation, Stanford University), were made during August–September 1979, using the 30-in Cassegrain telescope at Leuschner Observatory, Lafayette, California. An effective 2° square field was covered at each position. No discrete objects, either natural or artificial, were found. The detection limit was about 14th magnitude. The present work extends traditional SETI observations to include the search for interstellar probes (R. A. Freitas, Jr., 1980a, J. Brit. Interplanet. Soc.33, 95–100).     

Venus mesosphere and thermosphere temperature structure: II. Day-night variations

A two-dimensional nonlinear hydrodynamic model has been developed for studying the global scale winds, temperature, and compositional structure of the mesosphere and thermosphere of Venus. The model is driven by absorption of solar radiation. Ultraviolet radiation produces both heating and photodissociation. Infrared solar heating and thermal cooling are also included with an accurate NLTE treatment. The most crucial uncertainty in determining the solar drive is the efficiency by which $\text{λ < 1080}\text{A}\text{?}$ solar radiation is converted to heat. This question was analyzed in Part I, where it was concluded that essentially all hot atom and O(¹D) energy may be transferred to vibrational-rotational energy of CO₂ molecules. If this is so, the minimum possible euv heating occurs and is determined by the quenching of the resulting excess rotational energy. The hydrodynamic model is integrated with this minimum heating and neglecting any small-scale vertical eddy mixing. The results are compared with predictions of another model with the same physics except that it assumes that 30% of $\text{λ < 1080}\text{A}\text{?}$ radiation goes into heat and that the heating from longer-wavelength radiation includes the O(¹D) energy. For the low-efficiency model, exospheric temperatures are ?300°K on the dayside and drop to < 180°K at the antisolar point. For the higher-efficiency model, the day-to-night temperature variation is from ?600°K to ?250°K. Both versions of the model predict a wind of several hundred meters per second blowing across the terminator and abruptly weakening to small values on the nightside with the mass flow consequently going into a strong tongue of downward motion on the nightside of the terminator. The presence of this circulation could be tested observationally by seeing if its signature can be found in temperature measurements. Both versions of the model indicate that a self-consistent large-scale circulation would maintain oxygen concentrations with ?5% mixing ratios near the dayside F-1 ionospheric peak but ?40% at the antisolar point at the same pressure level.     

Are the high-latitude torsional oscillations of the sun real?

A numerical test is made to determine if the high-latitude torsional wave is generated from the low-latitude torsional pattern as a result of our reduction procedures. The results indicate that the high-latitude motions are not an artifact of the analysis, but are true solar features. We demonstrate also that the one-wave-per-hemisphere torsional oscillation does not result from the reduction procedure. These results place the observations in conflict with the predictions of - () models of the solar cycle.Now at Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, U.S.A.     

Sensitivity of glaciation to initial snow cover,CO2, snow albedo,and oceanic roughness in the NCAR CCM

We present results from numerical experiments made with a GCM, the NCAR CCM1, that were designed to estimate the annual balance between snow-fall accumulation and ablation for geographically important land regions for a variety of conditions. We also attempt to assess the reliability of these results by investigating model sensitivity to changes in prescribed physical parameters. Experiments were run with an initial imposition of 1 m of (midwinter) snowcover over all northern hemisphere land points. Over Alaska, western Canada, Siberia, and the Tibetan Plateau the model tended to retain this snow cover through the summer and in some cases increase its depth as well. We define these regions as glaciation sensitive and note some correspondence between them and source regions for the Pleistocene ice sheets. An experiment with greatly reduced CO₂ (100 ppm) showed a tendency towards spontaneous glaciation, i.e., the model remained snow-covered throughout the summer over the same geographic regions noted above. With 200 ppm CO₂ (roughly equal to values at the last glacial maximum), snow cover over these regions did not quite survive the summer on a consistent basis. Combining 200 ppm CO₂ and 1 m of initial northern hemisphere snow cover yielded glaciation-sensitive conditions, agreeing remarkably well with locations undergoing glaciation during the Pleistocene. To assess the reliability of these results, we have determined minimal model uncertainty by varying two of the empirical coefficients in the model within physically plausible ranges. In one case surface roughness of all ocean gridpoints was reduced by an order of magnitude, leading to local 10% reductions in precipitation (snowfall), a change hard to distinguish from inherent model variability. In the other case, the fraction of a land grid square assumed to be occupied by snow cover for albedo purposes was varied from one-half to unity. Large changes occurred in the degree of summer melting, and in some cases the sign of the net balance changed as fractional snow cover was changed. We conclude that the model may be able to reveal regions sensitive to glaciation, but that it cannot yield a reliable quantitative computation of the magnitude of the net snow accumulation that can be implicitly or explicitly integrated through time.This paper was presented at the International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 11–15 September 1989 under the auspices of the Meteorological Institute of the University of Hamburg and the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology. Guest Editor for these papers is Dr. L. Dilmenil