Amplification of vertically propagating SH waves by multiple layers of Gibson soils

Using the Haskell–Thomson transfer matrix approach, an analytical solution is obtained for SH wave amplification by multiple layers of Gibson soils (i.e. viscoelastic layers with linearly varying shear moduli). Amplification spectra for typical soil and basement rock properties are calculated. A comparison of the Gibson soil response with that obtained for homogeneous soil models shows generally stronger amplifications associated with the Gibson soil.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.     

Quaternary uplift of northern England

Upland flats, attributable to erosion, have long been recognised in the landscape of the Lake District region of NW England, at altitudes of up to ~ 800 m O.D. Extrapolation using uplift rates derived from dated Pleistocene sites (karstic caves and other features) in the adjacent Pennine uplands suggests that if this succession of flats formed close to sea-level they date from the Middle Pliocene onwards, indicating a subsequent time-averaged uplift rate of almost 0.3 mm a^− 1. Numerical modelling indicates that erosion of surrounding areas at a typical rate of 0.2 mm a^− 1 since 3.1 Ma could have caused this uplift, as well as constraining the local effective viscosity of the lower crust as ~ 4 × 10¹⁸ Pa s and the typical local Moho temperature as ~ 650 °C. It is thus feasible that most of the topography of northern England has developed since the Middle Pliocene, as a consequence of coupling between erosion and the resulting induced flow in the lower continental crust. The much faster vertical crustal motions indicated in this part of northern England, compared with SE England, are thus mainly a consequence of much greater mobility of the lower crust in the north, due to its younger thermal age and the heating effect of radioactive Palaeozoic granites. Uplift of this magnitude, which has previously gone unrecognised, may have affected post-Pliocene global climate.     

Active crustal deformation beyond the SE margin of the Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from the evolution of fluvial systems

An integrated explanation is proposed for the Late Cenozoic crustal deformation in Yunnan, SW China, using sedimentary and geomorphological evidence from the Yangtze and Red River systems. The observed fluvial incision indicates up to ~ 15 km of crustal thickening, associated with ~ 3 km of uplift, apparently triggered at ~ 8 Ma by monsoon-induced erosion drawing mobile lower crust from beneath Tibet to the northwest. The mobile lower-crustal layer beneath Yunnan was initially very thin, but a positive feedback loop developed, whereby each incremental influx of lower-crust widened and heated this layer, facilitating the next increment. At ~ 5 Ma, the shear tractions exerted on the brittle upper-crust by this flowing lower crust became sufficient to reactivate pre-existing lines of weakness, dragging blocks of the brittle layer southward and creating the region′s modern active fault systems. This region thus provides a dramatic example of crustal deformation induced by Late Cenozoic climate change, notwithstanding its location adjoining the India–Eurasia plate boundary.