Multi-gas Emissions Pathways to Meet Climate Targets

So far, climate change mitigation pathways focus mostly on CO₂ and a limited number of climate targets. Comprehensive studies of emission implications have been hindered by the absence of a flexible method to generate multi-gas emissions pathways, user-definable in shape and the climate target. The presented method ‘Equal Quantile Walk’ (EQW) is intended to fill this gap, building upon and complementing existing multi-gas emission scenarios. The EQW method generates new mitigation pathways by ‘walking along equal quantile paths’ of the emission distributions derived from existing multi-gas IPCC baseline and stabilization scenarios. Considered emissions include those of CO₂ and all other major radiative forcing agents (greenhouse gases, ozone precursors and sulphur aerosols). Sample EQW pathways are derived for stabilization at 350 ppm to 750 ppm CO₂ concentrations and compared to WRE profiles. Furthermore, the ability of the method to analyze emission implications in a probabilistic multi-gas framework is demonstrated. The probability of overshooting a 2 ^∘C climate target is derived by using different sets of EQW radiative forcing peaking pathways. If the probability shall not be increased above 30%, it seems necessary to peak CO₂ equivalence concentrations around 475 ppm and return to lower levels after peaking (below 400 ppm). EQW emissions pathways can be applied in studies relating to Article 2 of the UNFCCC, for the analysis of climate impacts, adaptation and emission control implications associated with certain climate targets. See for EQW-software and data.     

On the ‘Divergence Problem’ in Northern Forests: A review of the tree-ring evidence and possible causes

An anomalous reduction in forest growth indices and temperature sensitivity has been detected in tree-ring width and density records from many circumpolar northern latitude sites since around the middle 20th century. This phenomenon, also known as the “divergence problem”, is expressed as an offset between warmer instrumental temperatures and their underestimation in reconstruction models based on tree rings. The divergence problem has potentially significant implications for large-scale patterns of forest growth, the development of paleoclimatic reconstructions based on tree-ring records from northern forests, and the global carbon cycle. Herein we review the current literature published on the divergence problem to date, and assess its possible causes and implications. The causes, however, are not well understood and are difficult to test due to the existence of a number of covarying environmental factors that may potentially impact recent tree growth. These possible causes include temperature-induced drought stress, nonlinear thresholds or time-dependent responses to recent warming, delayed snowmelt and related changes in seasonality, and differential growth/climate relationships inferred for maximum, minimum and mean temperatures. Another possible cause of the divergence described briefly herein is ‘global dimming’, a phenomenon that has appeared, in recent decades, to decrease the amount of solar radiation available for photosynthesis and plant growth on a large scale. It is theorized that the dimming phenomenon should have a relatively greater impact on tree growth at higher northern latitudes, consistent with what has been observed from the tree-ring record. Additional potential causes include “end effects” and other methodological issues that can emerge in standardization and chronology development, and biases in instrumental target data and its modeling. Although limited evidence suggests that the divergence may be anthropogenic in nature and restricted to the recent decades of the 20th century, more research is needed to confirm these observations.     

Paleomagnetic constraints on the paleogeography and oroclinal bending of the Devonian volcanic arc in Kazakhstan

Numerical modelling, incorporating coupling between surface processes and induced flow in the lower continental crust, is used to address the Quaternary evolution of the Gulf of Corinth region in central Greece. The post-Early Pleistocene marine depocentre beneath this Gulf overlies the northern margin of an older (Early Pleistocene and earlier) lacustrine basin, the Proto Gulf of Corinth Basin or PGCB. In the late Early Pleistocene, relief in this region was minimal but, subsequently, dramatic relief has developed, involving the creation of  900 m of bathymetry within the Gulf and the uplift by many hundreds of metres of the part of the PGCB, south of the modern Gulf, which forms the Gulf's main sediment supply. It is assumed that, as a result of climate change around 0.9 Ma, erosion of this sediment source region and re-deposition of this material within the Gulf began, both processes occurring at spatial average rates of  0.2 mm a^− 1. Modelling of the resulting isostatic response indicates that the local effective viscosity of the lower crust is  4 × 10¹⁹ Pa s, indicating a Moho temperature of  560 °C. It predicts that the  10 mm a^− 1 of extension across this  70 km wide model region, at an extensional strain rate of  0.15 Ma^− 1, is partitioned with  3 mm a^− 1 across the sediment source,  2 mm a^− 1 across the depocentre, and  5 mm a^− 1 across the ‘hinge zone’ in between, the latter value being an estimate of the extension rate on normal faults forming the major topographic escarpment at the southern margin of the Gulf. This modelling confirms the view, suggested previously, that coupling between this depocentre and sediment source by lower-crustal flow can explain the dramatic development in local relief since the late Early Pleistocene. The effective viscosity of the lower crust in this region is not particularly low; the strong coupling interpreted between the sediment source and depocentre results instead from their close proximity. In detail, the effective viscosity of the lower crust is expected to decrease northward across this model region, due to the northward increase in exposure of the base of the continental lithosphere to the asthenosphere; in the south the two are separated by the subducting Hellenic slab. The isostatic consequences of such a lateral variation in viscosity provide a natural explanation for why, since  0.9 Ma, the modern Gulf has developed asymmetrically over the northern part of the PGCB, leaving the rest of the PGCB to act as its sediment source.     

Detecting changing river temperatures in England and Wales

Changes in water temperature can have important consequences for aquatic ecosystems, with some species being sensitive even to small shifts in temperature during some or all of their life cycle. While many studies report increasing regional and global air temperatures, evidence of changes in river water temperature has, thus far, been site specific and often from sites heavily influenced by human activities that themselves could lead to warming. Here we present a tiered assessment of changing river water temperature covering England and Wales with data from 2773 locations. We use novel statistical approaches to detect trends in irregularly sampled spot measurements taken between 1990 and 2006. During this 17‐year period, on average, mean water temperature increased by 0.03 °C per year (±0.002 °C), and positive changes in water temperature were observed at 2385 (86%) sites. Examination of catchments where there has been limited human influence on hydrological response shows that changes in river flow have had little influence on these water temperature trends. In the absence of other systematic influences on water temperature, it is inferred that anthropogenically driven climate change is driving some of this trend in water temperature. © 2014 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Growth and linkage of a segmented normal fault zone; the Late Jurassic Murchison–Statfjord North Fault, northern North Sea

The structure of the 25 km long northeastern portion of the Murchison–Statfjord North Fault Zone and adjacent syn-rift stratigraphy are integrated to reconstruct the temporal and spatial evolution during c. 30.5 myr of Late Jurassic, North Sea rifting. Based on a structural analysis (D–d data) alone, approximately 14 precursor fault strands are identified. Incorporation of stratigraphic data shows that only six of these strands were important in controlling stratal architecture and distribution. Three main stages in the evolution of the fault zone are recorded in the syn-rift stratigraphy and are biostratigraphically constrained. These are: (1) following initiation of rifting, six isolated fault strands developed (each <4 km long) and controlled the stratigraphy for c. 13 myr; (2) the isolated strands linked along-strike forming two >9 km long fault segments separated by a 2 km wide relay ramp, that controlled the stratigraphy for at least the following c. 10.5 myr; and (3) the two fault segments hard-linked forming a single, continuous fault trace during the final c. 7 myr of rifting. The results of this study reveal the necessity to adopt an integrated structural and stratigraphic approach when reconstructing the evolution of normal fault zones. The results may also help to further constrain models of fault evolution.     

Two-dimensional modelling of subduction zone anisotropy with application to southwestern Japan

We present a series of 2-D numerical models of viscous flow in the mantle wedge induced by a subducting lithospheric plate. We use a kinematically defined slab geometry approximating the subduction of the Philippine Sea plate beneath Eurasia. Through finite element modelling we explore the effects of different rheological and thermal constraints (e.g. a low-viscosity region in the wedge corner, power law versus Newtonian rheology, the inclusion of thermal buoyancy forces and a temperature-dependent viscosity law) on the velocity and finite strain field in the mantle wedge. From the numerical flow models we construct models of anisotropy in the wedge by calculating the evolution of the finite strain ellipse and combining its geometry with appropriate elastic constants for effective transversely isotropic mantle material. We then predict shear wave splitting for stations located above the model domain using expressions derived from anisotropic perturbation theory, and compare the predictions to ∼500 previously published shear wave splitting measurements from seventeen stations of the broad-band F-net array located in southwestern Japan. Although the use of different model parameters can have a substantial effect on the character of the finite strain field, the effect on the average predicted splitting parameters is small. However, the variations with backazimuth and ray parameter of individual splitting intensity measurements at a given station for different models are often different, and rigorous analysis of details in the splitting patterns allows us to discriminate among different rheological models for flow in the mantle wedge. The splitting observed in southwestern Japan agrees well with the predictions of trench-perpendicular flow in the mantle wedge along with B-type olivine fabric dominating in a region from the wedge corner to about 125 km from the trench.     

Timing of Variscan HP-HT metamorphism in the Moldanubian Zone of the Bohemian Massif: U-Pb SHRIMP dating on multiply zoned zircons from a granulite from the Dunkelsteiner Wald Massif, Lower Austria

In an attempt to better constrain the timing of Variscan HP-HT metamorphism in the SE Bohemian Massif we have dated zoned zircons from a garnet-kyanite granulite of granitic composition from the Dunkelsteiner Wald Massif, Lower Austria, by means of sensitive high-resolution ion microprobe (SHRIMP) technique. In order to combine isotopic information with crystal growth textures, CL and BSE images were systematically taken from the dated zircons. A characteristic threefold concentric zoning was found in many zircons. This involves pre-Variscan protolithic cores followed by two distinct metamorphic/anatectic overgrowth shells of Variscan age. The inner overgrowth shell is characterized by a weak CL but bright BSE signal, and yields high contents of uranium (0.1 to 0.2 wt.%). A pooled U-Pb Concordia age for this zone is 342.0?±?3.0?Ma (n?=?11, MSWD?=?0.12). The second, outer, overgrowth shell is always bright in the CL image, dark in the BSE image, and has generally low uranium contents (mostly <500?ppm). A pooled U-Pb Concordia age for this zone is 337.1?±?2.7?Ma (n?=?11, MSWD?=?0.22). These results imply that the Variscan HT crystallisation history of the Moldanubian granulites took place over a period of a few million years and was not an extremely rapid subduction-exhumation process. SHRIMP measurements in the protolithic cores yield a cluster of (sub)concordant ages between ??390 and 460?Ma and a few outliers at higher ages mostly represented by cores in cores. Core domains, which are large, homogeneous and with undisturbed igneous oscillatory zoning, yielded preferentially ages between 430 and 460?Ma. We therefore consider that granitic protolith formation took place at that time. The still older inner cores are interpreted as inherited into the granitic melt.