Quantitative multi-risk analysis for natural hazards: a framework for multi-risk modelling

This paper introduces a generic framework for multi-risk modelling developed in the project ‘Regional RiskScape’ by the Research Organizations GNS Science and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research Ltd. (NIWA) in New Zealand. Our goal was to develop a generic technology for modelling risks from different natural hazards and for various elements at risk. The technical framework is not dependent on the specific nature of the individual hazard nor the vulnerability and the type of the individual assets. Based on this generic framework, a software prototype has been developed, which is capable of ‘plugging in’ various natural hazards and assets without reconfiguring or adapting the generic software framework. To achieve that, we developed a set of standards for treating the fundamental components of a risk model: hazards, assets (elements at risk) and vulnerability models (or fragility functions). Thus, the developed prototype system is able to accommodate any hazard, asset or fragility model, which is provided to the system according to that standard. The software prototype was tested by modelling earthquake, volcanic ashfall, flood, wind, and tsunami risks for several urban centres and small communities in New Zealand.     

Variability in the speciation of iron in the northern North Sea

Variations in the speciation of iron in the northern North Sea were investigated in an area covering at least two different water masses and an algal bloom, using a combination of techniques. Catalytic cathodic stripping voltammetry was used to measure the concentrations of reactive iron (Fe_R) and total iron (Fe_T) in unfiltered samples, while dissolved iron (Fe_D) was measured by GFAAS after extraction of filtered sea water. Fe_R was defined by the amount of iron that complexed with 20 μM 1-nitroso-2-napthol (NN) at pH 6.9. Fe_T was determined after UV-digestion at pH 2.4. Concentrations of natural organic iron complexing ligands and values for conditional stability constants, were determined in unfiltered samples by titration. Mean concentrations of 1.3 nM for Fe_R, 10.0 nM for Fe_T and 1.7 nM for Fe_D were obtained for the area sampled. Fe_R concentrations increased towards the south of the area investigated, as a result of the increased influence of continental run off. Fe_R concentrations were found to be enhanced below the nutricline (below 40 m) as a result of the remineralisation of organic material. Enhanced levels of Fe_T were observed in some surface samples and in samples collected below 30 m at stations in the south of the area studied, thought to be a result of high concentrations of biogenic particulate material and the resuspended sediments respectively. Fe_D concentrations varied between values similar to those of Fe_T in samples from the north of the area to values similar to those of Fe_R in the south. The bloom was thought to have influenced the distribution of both Fe_R and Fe_T, but less evidence was observed for any influence on Fe_R and Fe_D. The concentration of organic complexing ligands, which could possibly include a contribution from adsorption sites on particulate material, increased slightly in the bloom area and in North Sea waters. Iron was found to be fully (99.9%) complexed by the organic complexing ligands at a pH of 6.9 and largely complexed (82–96%) at pH 8. The ligands were almost saturated with iron suggesting that the ligand concentration could limit the concentration of iron occurring as dissolved species.     

Active crustal deformation beyond the SE margin of the Tibetan Plateau: Constraints from the evolution of fluvial systems

An integrated explanation is proposed for the Late Cenozoic crustal deformation in Yunnan, SW China, using sedimentary and geomorphological evidence from the Yangtze and Red River systems. The observed fluvial incision indicates up to ~ 15 km of crustal thickening, associated with ~ 3 km of uplift, apparently triggered at ~ 8 Ma by monsoon-induced erosion drawing mobile lower crust from beneath Tibet to the northwest. The mobile lower-crustal layer beneath Yunnan was initially very thin, but a positive feedback loop developed, whereby each incremental influx of lower-crust widened and heated this layer, facilitating the next increment. At ~ 5 Ma, the shear tractions exerted on the brittle upper-crust by this flowing lower crust became sufficient to reactivate pre-existing lines of weakness, dragging blocks of the brittle layer southward and creating the region′s modern active fault systems. This region thus provides a dramatic example of crustal deformation induced by Late Cenozoic climate change, notwithstanding its location adjoining the India–Eurasia plate boundary.     

Cenozoic cooling and denudation in the North Pennines (northern England,UK) constrained by apatite fission-track analysis of cuttings from the Eastgate Borehole

The Cenozoic landscape development of Britain remains relatively poorly understood. On the one hand, ‘plumists’ have tried to explain the present-day topography as a consequence of effects of the Iceland mantle plume during the Palaeocene-Eocene British Tertiary Igneous Province (BTIP) magmatism, with little or no subsequent modification. On the other hand, abundant evidence exists from fluvial and marine terraces and superimposed karstic levels for significant vertical crustal motions during the Quaternary, which clearly has nothing to do with any mantle plume. To shed light on this issue, we present the first publication of data that constrain the Cenozoic thermal history of the North Pennine uplands of northern England, from apatite fission-track analysis of drill cuttings from the Eastgate Borehole in Weardale, in the western part of County Durham. Our results indicate ～650 m of regional denudation since the latest Oligocene/Early Miocene, plus the ～400 m of localized entrenchment that has created the modern Weardale valley. Before the latest Oligocene/Early Miocene, but following the BTIP magmatism, the crust in this region experienced significant cooling, mainly due to a decrease in the geothermal gradient from ～55 to 61 °C km^?1 to the present 38 °C km^?1, along with ～300 ± 200 m of denudation. Although significant BTIP magmatism occurred in northern England, it thus had only a limited net effect; the crust experienced dramatic heating, but cooled back to its original thermal state within, at most, a few tens of millions of years. We suggest that this rapid cooling effect resulted from westward flow of relatively cold material within the mobile lower-crustal layer, driven by the lateral pressure gradient induced by earlier heating effects and effects of surface processes. Whatever topography developed during the Palaeogene, as a direct result of these heating effects, underplating at the base of the crust, and the associated modest denudation, was presumably also short-lived; significant changes to the crustal thickness, and thus to the topography, can be envisaged as a consequence of subsequent lower-crustal flow.     

The angular momentum content of dwarf galaxies: new challenges for the theory of galaxy formation

We compute the specific angular momentum distributions for a sample of low-mass disc galaxies observed by Swaters. We compare these distributions to those of dark matter haloes obtained by Bullock et al. from high-resolution N -body simulations of structure formation in a ΛCDM universe. We find that although the disc mass fractions are significantly smaller than the universal baryon fraction, the total specific angular momenta of the discs are in good agreement with those of dark matter haloes. This suggests that discs form out of only a small fraction of the available baryons, but yet manage to draw most of the available angular momentum. In addition we find that the angular momentum distributions of discs are clearly distinct from those of the dark matter; discs lack predominantly both low and high specific angular momenta. Understanding these findings in terms of a coherent picture for disc formation is challenging. Cooling, feedback and stripping, which are the main mechanisms to explain the small disc mass fractions found, seem unable to simultaneously explain the angular momentum distributions of the discs. In fact, it seems that the baryons that make up the discs must have been born out of angular momentum distributions that are clearly distinct from those of ΛCDM haloes. However, the dark and baryonic mass components experience the same tidal forces, and it is therefore expected that they should have similar angular momentum distributions. Therefore, understanding the angular momentum content of disc galaxies remains an important challenge for our picture of galaxy formation.     

Quaternary uplift of northern England

Upland flats, attributable to erosion, have long been recognised in the landscape of the Lake District region of NW England, at altitudes of up to ~ 800 m O.D. Extrapolation using uplift rates derived from dated Pleistocene sites (karstic caves and other features) in the adjacent Pennine uplands suggests that if this succession of flats formed close to sea-level they date from the Middle Pliocene onwards, indicating a subsequent time-averaged uplift rate of almost 0.3 mm a^− 1. Numerical modelling indicates that erosion of surrounding areas at a typical rate of 0.2 mm a^− 1 since 3.1 Ma could have caused this uplift, as well as constraining the local effective viscosity of the lower crust as ~ 4 × 10¹⁸ Pa s and the typical local Moho temperature as ~ 650 °C. It is thus feasible that most of the topography of northern England has developed since the Middle Pliocene, as a consequence of coupling between erosion and the resulting induced flow in the lower continental crust. The much faster vertical crustal motions indicated in this part of northern England, compared with SE England, are thus mainly a consequence of much greater mobility of the lower crust in the north, due to its younger thermal age and the heating effect of radioactive Palaeozoic granites. Uplift of this magnitude, which has previously gone unrecognised, may have affected post-Pliocene global climate.