Evaluation of global climate model on performances of precipitation simulation and prediction in the Huaihe River basin

Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960–2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001–2010) and the predicting period (2011–2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans.     

Coupling statistical and dynamical methods for spatial downscaling of precipitation

The resolution of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is too coarse for climate change impact studies at the catchment or site-specific scales. To overcome this problem, both dynamical and statistical downscaling methods have been developed. Each downscaling method has its advantages and drawbacks, which have been described in great detail in the literature. This paper evaluates the improvement in statistical downscaling (SD) predictive power when using predictors from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) over a GCM for downscaling site-specific precipitation. Our approach uses mixed downscaling, combining both dynamic and statistical methods. Precipitation, a critical element of hydrology studies that is also much more difficult to downscale than temperature, is the only variable evaluated in this study. The SD method selected here uses a stepwise linear regression approach for precipitation quantity and occurrence (similar to the well-known Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and called SDSM-like herein). In addition, a discriminant analysis (DA) was tested to generate precipitation occurrence, and a weather typing approach was used to derive statistical relationships based on weather types, and not only on a seasonal basis as is usually done. The existing data record was separated into a calibration and validation periods. To compare the relative efficiency of the SD approaches, relationships were derived at the same sites using the same predictors at a 300km scale (the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis) and at a 45km scale with data from the limited-area Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM) driven by NCEP data at its boundaries. Predictably, using CRCM variables as predictors rather than NCEP data resulted in a much-improved explained variance for precipitation, although it was always less than 50?% overall. For precipitation occurrence, the SDSM-like model slightly overestimated the frequencies of wet and dry periods, while these were well-replicated by the DA-based model. Both the SDSM-like and DA-based models reproduced the percentage of wet days, but the wet and dry statuses for each day were poorly downscaled by both approaches. Overall, precipitation occurrence downscaled by the DA-based model was much better than that predicted by the SDSM-like model. Despite the added complexity, the weather typing approach was not better at downscaling precipitation than approaches without classification. Overall, despite significant improvements in precipitation occurrence prediction by the DA scheme, and even going to finer scales predictors, the SD approach tested here still explained less than 50?% of the total precipitation variance. While going to even smaller scale predictors (10–15?km) might improve results even more, such smaller scales would basically transform the direct outputs of climate models into impact models, thus negating the need for statistical downscaling approaches.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Summary

This special issue of Climatic Change describes an effort to improve methodology for integrated assessment of impacts and consequences of climatic change. Highlights of the seven foregoing Parts (papers) that constitute this special issue are summarized here. The methodology developed involves construction of scenarios of climate change that are used to drive individual sectoral models for simulating impacts on crop production, irrigation demand, water supply and change in productivity and geography of unmanaged ecosystems. Economic impacts of the changes predicted by integrating the results of the several sectoral simulation models are calculated through an agricultural land-use model. While these analyses were conducted for the conterminous United States alone, their global implications are also considered in this summary as is the need for further improvements in integrated assessment methodology.     

红壤丘陵区农业开发中的生态环境效应及其调控

文章以江西余江县为例。通过实验研究，历史资料对比分析及邻近参照等方法。研究红壤区农业开发中的生态环境效应。农业开发引起的微观环境效应在于改变土壤水分及其运动状况，加速土壤物质迁移及降低土壤肥力质量；区域性效应是植被减少，农业面源污染，水土流失扩大及气候异常；全球性影响除区域集聚效应外，则是农业活动中产生的温室气体对全球气候的影响等，采取的调控对策主要是：保持合理开发，适当减轻土地压力，优化农业开发模式，更新农业耕作技术。强化环境整治与生态建设。     

Geochemistry and mineralogy of shallow alluvial aquifers in Daudkandi upazila in the Meghna flood plain, Bangladesh

The shallow alluvial aquifers of the delta plains and flood plains of Bangladesh, comprises about 70% of total land area are mostly affected by elevated concentrations of arsenic (As) in groundwater exposing a population of more than 35 million to As toxicity. Geochemical studies of shallow alluvial aquifer in the Meghna flood plain show that the uppermost yellowish grey sediment is low in As (1.03 mg/kg) compared to the lower dark grey to black sediment (5.24 mg/kg) rich in mica and organic matter. Sequential extraction data show that solid phase As bound to poorly crystalline and amorphous metal (Fe, Mn, Al)-oxyhydroxides is dominant in the grey to dark grey sediment and reaches its maximum level (3.05 mg/kg) in the mica rich layers. Amount of As bound to sulphides and organic matter also peaks in the dark grey to black sediment. Vertical distributions of major elements determined by X-ray fluorescence (XRF) show that iron (Fe₂O₃), aluminum (Al₂O₃) and manganese (MnO) follow the general trend of distribution of As in the sediments. Concentrations of As, Mn, Fe, HCO₃ ⁻, SO₄ ²⁻ and NO₃ ⁻ in groundwater reflect the redox status of the aquifer and are consistent with solid phase geochemistry. Mineralogical analysis by X-ray diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) fitted with energy dispersive X-ray spectrometer (EDS) revealed dominance of crystalline iron oxides and hydroxides like magnetite, hematite and goethite in the oxidised yellowish grey sediment. Amorphous Fe-oxyhydroxides identified as grain coating in the mica and organic matter rich sediment suggests weathering of biotite is playing a critical role as the source of Fe(III)-oxyhydroxides which in turn act as sink for As. Presence of authigenic pyrite in the dark grey sediment indicates active reduction in the aquifer.     

山东长岛特色旅游资源研究

文章从海岛角度出发 ,在分析山东长岛旅游资源条件及开发现状的基础上 ,提出了该岛发展特色旅游应坚持独特性、时代性和系统性的原则及若干建议。     

汶川M_S8.0地震对甘肃陇东地区的破坏影响与特征分析

在汶川MS8.0地震后甘肃陇东地区的详细灾害调查基础上,对该区地震破坏进行了分类研究,给出了各种建筑物及工程结构的破坏程度及破坏特征.结合该区独特的地质地理环境对产生地震破坏的原因进行了分析.认为该区地震破坏相对严重的原因除与建筑物本身质量及结构有关外,还与远震和地形影响的长周期效应及持时较长有关.     

Recent glacial retreat in High Asia in China and its impact on water resource in Northwest China

There are about 46298 glaciers in the High Asiain China, the total glacial area is about 59406 km , andtotal glacial volume about 5590 km3. These glaciersmainly concentrate around the Himalayas Mountains,Nyainqentanglha Mountains, Kunlun Mountains,Karakoram Mountains and Tianshan Mountains. Theglaciers in the Tibetan Plateau are the major compo-nent of the glaciers in the High Asia in China. Theseglaciers extend north to the arid and desert regions,and become the main water resource in …     

Geochemical characteristics of Cretaceous basaltic rocks in South China and constraints on Pacific plate subduction

The South China, including Yangzi Craton and the Cathaysian Block, belongs to the southern part of East Asia continent. It borders Pacific plate on the east side and Qinling-Dabie Orogen on the north side. During the middle-late Cretaceous, a number of downfaulted red basins (the terrestrial sedimentary basins in Fig. 1) and volcanic- sedimentary basins had been developed in South China[1,2], in which the con-temporaneous basaltic rocks were generally distributed (Fig. 1). Although the …