Climate Change Impacts for the Conterminous USA: An Integrated Assessment Summary

This special issue of Climatic Change describes an effort to improve methodology for integrated assessment of impacts and consequences of climatic change. Highlights of the seven foregoing Parts (papers) that constitute this special issue are summarized here. The methodology developed involves construction of scenarios of climate change that are used to drive individual sectoral models for simulating impacts on crop production, irrigation demand, water supply and change in productivity and geography of unmanaged ecosystems. Economic impacts of the changes predicted by integrating the results of the several sectoral simulation models are calculated through an agricultural land-use model. While these analyses were conducted for the conterminous United States alone, their global implications are also considered in this summary as is the need for further improvements in integrated assessment methodology.     

Summer temperature variability across four urban neighborhoods in Knoxville,Tennessee, USA

The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 ^°C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 ^°C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 ^°C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being.     

An Observational Study of the Mesoscale Mistral Dynamics

We investigate the mesoscale dynamics of the mistral through the wind profiler observations of the MAP (autumn 1999) and ESCOMPTE (summer 2001) field campaigns. We show that the mistral wind field can dramatically change on a time scale less than 3 hours. Transitions from a deep to a shallow mistral are often observed at any season when the lower layers are stable. The variability, mainly attributed in summer to the mistral/land–sea breeze interactions on a 10-km scale, is highlighted by observations from the wind profiler network set up during ESCOMPTE. The interpretations of the dynamical mistral structure are performed through comparisons with existing basic theories. The linear theory of R. B. Smith [Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 31, 1989, Academic Press, 1–41] and the shallow water theory [Schär, C. and Smith, R. B.: 1993a, J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1373–1400] give some complementary explanations for the deep-to-shallow transition especially for the MAP mistral event. The wave breaking process induces a low-level jet (LLJ) downstream of the Alps that degenerates into a mountain wake, which in turn provokes the cessation of the mistral downstream of the Alps. Both theories indicate that the flow splits around the Alps and results in a persistent LLJ at the exit of the Rhône valley. The LLJ is strengthened by the channelling effect of the Rhône valley that is more efficient for north-easterly than northerly upstream winds despite the north–south valley axis. Summer moderate and weak mistral episodes are influenced by land–sea breezes and convection over land that induce a very complex interaction that cannot be accurately described by the previous theories.     

Comparative analysis of different underlying surfaces using a high-resolution assimilation dataset in semi-arid areas in China

To study the land surface and atmospheric meteorological characteristics of non-uniform underlying surfaces in the semi-arid area of Northeast China, we use a “High-Resolution Assimilation Dataset of the water-energy cycle in China (HRADC)”. The grid points of three different underlying surfaces were selected, and their meteorological elements were averaged for each type (i.e., mixed forest, grassland, and cropland). For 2009, we compared and analyzed the different components of leaf area index (LAI), soil temperature and moisture, surface albedo, precipitation, and surface energy for various underlying surfaces in Northeast China. The results indicated that the LAI of mixed forest and cropland during the summer is greater than 5 m² m^?2 and below 2.5 m² m^?2 for grassland; in the winter and spring seasons, the Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) is below 30%. The soil temperature and moisture both vary greatly. Throughout the year, the mixed forest is dominated by latent heat evaporation; in grasslands and croplands, the sensible heat flux and the latent heat flux are approximately equal, and the GVF contributed more to latent heat flux than sensible heat flux in the summer. This study compares meteorological characteristics between three different underlying surfaces of the semi-arid area of Northeast China and makes up for the insufficiency of purely using observations for the study. This research is important for understanding the water-energy cycle and transport in the semi-arid area.     

Verification of Carbon Sink Assessment: Can We Exclude Natural Sinks?

Any human-induced terrestrial sink is susceptible to the effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate variability and other natural or indirect human-induced factors. It has been suggested in climate negotiations that the effects of these factors should be excluded from estimates of carbon sequestration used to meet the emission reduction commitments under the Kyoto Protocol. This paper focuses on the methodologies for factoring out the effects of atmospheric and climate variability/change. We estimate the relative magnitude of the non-human induced effects by using two biosphere models and discuss possibilities for narrowing estimate uncertainty.     

A verification framework for interannual-to-decadal predictions experiments

Decadal predictions have a high profile in the climate science community and beyond, yet very little is known about their skill. Nor is there any agreed protocol for estimating their skill. This paper proposes a sound and coordinated framework for verification of decadal hindcast experiments. The framework is illustrated for decadal hindcasts tailored to meet the requirements and specifications of CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5). The chosen metrics address key questions about the information content in initialized decadal hindcasts. These questions are: (1) Do the initial conditions in the hindcasts lead to more accurate predictions of the climate, compared to un-initialized climate change projections? and (2) Is the prediction model’s ensemble spread an appropriate representation of forecast uncertainty on average? The first question is addressed through deterministic metrics that compare the initialized and uninitialized hindcasts. The second question is addressed through a probabilistic metric applied to the initialized hindcasts and comparing different ways to ascribe forecast uncertainty. Verification is advocated at smoothed regional scales that can illuminate broad areas of predictability, as well as at the grid scale, since many users of the decadal prediction experiments who feed the climate data into applications or decision models will use the data at grid scale, or downscale it to even higher resolution. An overall statement on skill of CMIP5 decadal hindcasts is not the aim of this paper. The results presented are only illustrative of the framework, which would enable such studies. However, broad conclusions that are beginning to emerge from the CMIP5 results include (1) Most predictability at the interannual-to-decadal scale, relative to climatological averages, comes from external forcing, particularly for temperature; (2) though moderate, additional skill is added by the initial conditions over what is imparted by external forcing alone; however, the impact of initialization may result in overall worse predictions in some regions than provided by uninitialized climate change projections; (3) limited hindcast records and the dearth of climate-quality observational data impede our ability to quantify expected skill as well as model biases; and (4) as is common to seasonal-to-interannual model predictions, the spread of the ensemble members is not necessarily a good representation of forecast uncertainty. The authors recommend that this framework be adopted to serve as a starting point to compare prediction quality across prediction systems. The framework can provide a baseline against which future improvements can be quantified. The framework also provides guidance on the use of these model predictions, which differ in fundamental ways from the climate change projections that much of the community has become familiar with, including adjustment of mean and conditional biases, and consideration of how to best approach forecast uncertainty.     

Impacts of extreme weather on wheat and maize in France: evaluating regional crop simulations against observed data

Extreme weather conditions can strongly affect agricultural production, with negative impacts that can at times be detected at regional scales. In France, crop yields were greatly influenced by drought and heat stress in 2003 and by extremely wet conditions in 2007. Reported regional maize and wheat yields where historically low in 2003; in 2007 wheat yields were lower and maize yields higher than long-term averages. An analysis with a spatial version (10?×?10?km) of the EPIC crop model was tested with regards to regional crop yield anomalies of wheat and maize resulting from extreme weather events in France in 2003 and 2007, by comparing simulated results against reported regional crops statistics, as well as using remotely sensed soil moisture data. Causal relations between soil moisture and crop yields were specifically analyzed. Remotely sensed (AMSR-E) JJA soil moisture correlated significantly with reported regional crop yield for 2002–2007. The spatial correlation between JJA soil moisture and wheat yield anomalies was positive in dry 2003 and negative in wet 2007. Biweekly soil moisture data correlated positively with wheat yield anomalies from the first half of June until the second half of July in 2003. In 2007, the relation was negative the first half of June until the second half of August. EPIC reproduced observed soil dynamics well, and it reproduced the negative wheat and maize yield anomalies of the 2003 heat wave and drought, as well as the positive maize yield anomalies in wet 2007. However, it did not reproduce the negative wheat yield anomalies due to excessive rains and wetness in 2007. Results indicated that EPIC, in line with other crop models widely used at regional level in climate change studies, is capable of capturing the negative impacts of droughts on crop yields, while it fails to reproduce negative impacts of heavy rain and excessively wet conditions on wheat yield, due to poor representations of critical factors affecting plant growth and management. Given that extreme weather events are expected to increase in frequency and perhaps severity in coming decades, improved model representation of crop damage due to extreme events is warranted in order to better quantify future climate change impacts and inform appropriate adaptation responses.     

Continuous zircon growth during long-lived granulite facies metamorphism: a microtextural,U–Pb,Lu–Hf and trace element study of Caledonian rocks from the Arctic

Microtextural, U–Pb, trace element and Lu–Hf analyses of zircons from gneisses dredged from the Chukchi Borderland indicate a long-lived, Cambrian–Ordovician, granulite facies metamorphism. These results reveal a complete prograde, peak and cooling history of zircon growth during anatexis. Early increasing temperatures caused modification and Pb-loss of Precambrian zircons by recrystallization and dissolution/re-precipitation of existing grains. Small variations in initial ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf results (0.282325–0.282042) and flat HREE patterns of these zircons indicate that they grew by dissolution/re-precipitation in the presence of garnet. Zircons subsequently crystallized from a partial melt during peak to post-peak metamorphism from 530 to 485 Ma. A broad range of initial ¹⁷⁶Hf/¹⁷⁷Hf ratios (0.282693–0.282050) and mineral inclusions within zircons suggest that this phase of growth incorporated Zr and Hf obtained from the breakdown of Zr-enriched phases. Microtextural evidence along with trace element and isotopic data suggests that final growth of metamorphic rims on zircon occurred during slow cooling and crystallization of residual partial melts during the early Ordovician (485–470 Ma). Younger, late Ordovician–Silurian (420–450 Ma) euhedral, oscillatory-zoned, trace element-enriched zircons crystallized within leucocratic veins that intrude the gneisses. Their age corresponds to granitoids dated from this same dredge. The intrusives and veins provide evidence that the Chukchi Borderland rifted from a position near Pearya and northwest Svalbard, which represent the northern continuation of the Caledonian orogen. Evidence for earlier Cambrian metamorphism has not been reported from this region. The age of granulite facies metamorphism reported here represents the earliest phase of deformation in the Arctic Caledonides.     

Iron isotope fractionation in subduction-related high-pressure metabasites (Ile de Groix,France)

Characterisation of mass transfer during subduction is fundamental to understand the origin of compositional heterogeneities in the upper mantle. Fe isotopes were measured in high-pressure/low-temperature metabasites (blueschists, eclogites and retrograde greenschists) from the Ile de Groix (France), a Variscan high-pressure terrane, to determine if the subducted oceanic crust contributes to mantle Fe isotope heterogeneities. The metabasites have δ⁵⁶Fe values of +0.16 to +0.33‰, which are heavier than typical values of MORB and OIB, indicating that their basaltic protolith derives from a heavy-Fe mantle source. The δ⁵⁶Fe correlates well with Y/Nb and (La/Sm)_PM ratios, which commonly fractionate during magmatic processes, highlighting variations in the magmatic protolith composition. In addition, the shift of δ⁵⁶Fe by +0.06 to 0.10‰ compared to basalts may reflect hydrothermal alteration prior to subduction. The δ⁵⁶Fe decrease from blueschists (+0.19 ± 0.03 to +0.33 ± 0.01‰) to eclogites (+0.16 ± 0.02 to +0.18 ± 0.03‰) reflects small variations in the protolith composition, rather than Fe fractionation during metamorphism: newly-formed Fe-rich minerals allowed preserving bulk rock Fe compositions during metamorphic reactions and hampered any Fe isotope fractionation. Greenschists have δ⁵⁶Fe values (+0.17 ± 0.01 to +0.27 ± 0.02‰) similar to high-pressure rocks. Hence, metasomatism related to fluids derived from the subducted hydrothermally altered metabasites might only have a limited effect on mantle Fe isotope composition under subsolidus conditions, owing to the large stability of Fe-rich minerals and low mobility of Fe. Subsequent melting of the heavy-Fe metabasites at deeper levels is expected to generate mantle Fe isotope heterogeneities.     

Titanium- and water-rich metamorphic olivine in high-pressure serpentinites from the Voltri Massif (Ligurian Alps,Italy): evidence for deep subduction of high-field strength and fluid-mobile elements

Titanium- and water-rich metamorphic olivine (Fo 86–88) is reported from partially dehydrated serpentinites from the Voltri complex, Ligurian Alps. The rocks are composed of mostly antigorite and olivine in addition to magnetite, chlorite, clinopyroxene and Ti-clinohumite. In situ secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) data show that metamorphic olivine has very high and strongly correlated H₂O (up to 0.7 wt%) and TiO₂ contents (up to 0.85 wt%). Ti-rich olivine shows colourless to yellow pleochroism. Olivine associated with Ti-clinohumite contains low Ti, suggesting that Ti-rich olivine is not the breakdown product of Ti-clinohumite. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) absorption spectra show peaks of serpentine, Ti-clinohumite and OH-related Si vacancies. Combining FTIR and SIMS data, we suggest the presence of clustered planar defects or nanoscale exsolutions of Ti-clinohumite in olivine. These defects or exsolutions contain more H₂O (x ~ 0.1 in the formula 4Mg₂SiO₄·(1?x)Mg(OH,F)₂·xTiO₂) than Ti-clinohumite in the sample matrix (x = 0.34–0.46). In addition to TiO₂ and H₂O, secondary olivine contains significant Li (2–60 ppm), B (10–20 ppm), F (10–130 ppm) and Zr (0.9–2.1 ppm). It is enriched in ¹¹B (δ¹¹B = +17 to +23 ‰). Our data indicate that secondary olivine may play a significant role in transporting water, high-field strength and fluid-mobile elements into the deeper mantle as well as introduce significant B isotope anomalies. Release of hydrogen from H₂O-rich olivine subducted into the deep mantle may result in strongly reduced mantle domains.