Seismic vulnerability assessment of a mixed masonry–RC building aggregate by linear and nonlinear analyses

From the beginning of the twentieth century, and due to the rapid increase of reinforced concrete (RC) usage, mixed masonry–RC buildings have emerged. In Lisbon, Portugal, old mixed masonry–RC buildings appeared between 1920 and 1960, representing the transition period between masonry and proper RC. These buildings are often integrated in blocks, and frequently share the side-walls, implying, thus, the need to assess the seismic vulnerability of building aggregates. The present paper approaches the seismic vulnerability assessment of a specific type of old mixed masonry–RC buildings in Lisbon. The study comprises the analysis of a building, both as an isolated structure and inserted in its aggregate, using two approaches: (1) linear dynamic analysis with SAP2000 and (2) nonlinear static analysis by means of 3Muri/Tremuri software. A comparison of both approaches derives a good matching between the obtained results. However, a nonlinear analysis is required to identify, in an adequate manner, the critical areas of the structure requiring strengthening.     

Global climate models as forcing for regional ocean modeling: a sensitivity study in the Iberian Basin (Eastern North Atlantic)

This work evaluates the performance of several global climate models (GCMs) as forcing of a regional ocean model configuration centered in the Iberian Basin. The study is divided in two parts. First, the output of nine GCMs is analyzed based on the fields needed to force the ocean model (Regional Ocean Modelling System—ROMS). GCMs differ greatly between them and their performance depends on the field. In the second part, the two GCMs with the worst performances in both extremes of the ensemble are used as forcing for two ROMS simulations, with the purpose of assessing the range of uncertainty comprised in this set of GCMs. Two other ROMS runs are setup: one climatologically forced control run, and one forced with the average of all the nine GCMs—the ensemble mean. Results show that the tendency of overestimation/underestimation of the forcings is reflected in the modeled hydrography, both at the surface and deeper layers down to 500 m. Nevertheless, in terms of circulation, all four runs reproduce the Azores Current, as well as the coastal transition zone seasonality (winter poleward flow and summer upwelling-associated equatorward flow). The CGCMs output performance as forcing depends on the forcing variable: one performs well for one or more variables, but badly for others, and which field is well or badly reproduced varies for each CGCM. Therefore, there is not a single CGCM having the best forcing for all variables. Hence, our results indicate that the most adequate approach consists of using the ensemble mean as forcing rather than using an individual model. This is supported by the general low overall (i.e. for all forcing variables) errors of the ensemble mean regarding the control climatological dataset, and the good comparison of the ensemble-forced ROMS run with the control run.     

Assessing food web dynamics and relative importance of organic matter sources for fish species in two Portuguese estuaries: a stable isotope approach

Stable carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ13C, δ1?N) were used to analyse food web dynamics of two of the main estuaries of the Portuguese coast: Tejo and Mira. The ultimate sources of organic matter supporting production of some of the most abundant and commercially important fish species were determined; and seasonal, inter- and intra- estuarine differences in the trophic relations among producers and consumers were identified. Stable isotope analysis was performed in different producers, primary consumers (main prey items for fish) and fish species (Solea solea, Solea senegalensis, Pomatoschistus microps, Dicentrarchus labrax, Liza ramada, Diplodus vulgaris and Atherina presbyter) of two areas in each estuary, in July and October 2009. Model calculations showed that the main prey for the fish species in the Tejo estuary used mostly salt marsh-derived organic matter as nutritional sources, with no marked differences between the sampled months. Trophic levels of fish species from the same estuary differed at multiple scales: inter-species, seasonally and spatially (both between and within estuaries). Significant differences in isotopic composition of fish species were more pronounced spatially (between the two sampled areas in the estuary) than seasonally (between sampled months). Trophic relationships in both estuaries demonstrated that organic matter is transferred to higher trophic positions mainly through benthic pathways. This shows the flexibility of these species to share resources and to exploit temporary peaks in prey populations. The present results showed that extensive disturbance in intertidal habitats from both estuaries may potentially change the balance of organic matter in the base of these complex food webs.     

Stochastic Simulation Model for the Spatial Characterization of Lung Cancer Mortality Risk and Study of Environmental Factors

This paper presents a study in which the lung cancer risk in males was characterized based on a simulation model of mortality rates. Block sequential simulation of mortality rates, measured in counties of different sizes, was implemented and applied to a normal grid of continental Portugal with high spatial resolution. The uncertainty in the mortality rate measurements, directly related to differences in the population size of each county, was integrated in a block direct sequential simulation through Poisson kriging of local means and variances. Three age groups were examined: 50–59, 60–69, and 70–79 years. After the continuous geographic patterns of lung cancer risk were obtained, factors potentially associated with the main areas of risk were analyzed for southern Portugal. Thus, a defined class of land use and dry weather events, related to airborne particulate matter, were found to be associated with high-risk areas, resulting in high local spatial correlation patterns in all three age groups.     

The effect of an arctic polynya on the Northern Hemisphere mean circulation and eddy regime: a numerical experiment

The feedback of an arctic polynya, which is a large ice-free zone within the sea ice, on the hemispheric climate is studied with the ECMWF T21 GCM. For this purpose a control and an anomaly integration, in which a polynya was introduced in the Kara Sea, are compared. As the GCM, like the real atmosphere, shows a high level of low frequency variability, the mean response to the changed boundary conditions is obscured by internal noise. The necessary significance analyses are thus performed to enhance the signal-tonoise ratio within the framework of an a priori chosen guess pattern and a multivariate test statistic. The sensible and latent heat fluxes increased above the polynya, which resulted in a warming of the lower troposphere above and near the polynya. No statistically significant local or global sea-level pressure changes are associated with this heating. However we find a significant change of hemispheric extent of the geopotential fields at 300 hPa, if we use as guess patterns the eigenmodes of the barotropic vorticity equation. The different mean flow field is accompanied by significant changes of the synoptic transient eddy field. We find a significant variation in the barotropic and baroclinic forcing of the mean flow by the eddies, a change in the location and intensity of the storm tracks and in the conversion between eddy available and eddy kinetic energy. The additional heat flux from the polynya results in a reduction of the meridional heat flux by the synoptic eddies on the western Atlantic.     

The political ecology of territoriality: territorialities in farmer–herder relationships in Northern Ghana

Fulani herder and farmer relationships in West Africa have always been troublesome as a result of farmers’ fundamental rejection of the herders’ inroads into their areas and also because of increased competition for available resources. In countries such as Ghana, local and even national campaigns have been launched to expel the herders but they persist. This case-study which utilised interviews and group discussions involving farmers and herders, sought to understand the dynamics and subtleties of herders’ resilience in an environment where natural resource access and use rights are tied to common property principles and where herders have no enshrined land and resource rights. Using territoriality as the analytical capsule, we found that the herders’ persistence is related to mainly non-territoriality where the goal is to influence relationships and resource access but not control area. Categorising their non-territorial expression into persuasive and aggressive forms, we provide a new platform for deconstructing farmer-herder relationships in the West African sub-region.