Diagnostic monitoring of a changing environment: an alternative UK perspective

Adaptive management of the marine environment requires an understanding of the complex interactions within it. Establishing levels of natural variability within and between marine ecosystems is a necessary prerequisite to this process and requires a monitoring programme which takes account of the issues of time, space and scale. In this paper, we argue that an ecosystem approach to managing the marine environment should take direct account of climate change indicators at a regional level if it is to cope with the unprecedented change expected as a result of human impacts on the earth climate system. We discuss the purpose of environmental monitoring and the importance of maintaining long-term time series. Recommendations are made on the use of these data in conjunction with modern extrapolation and integration tools (e.g. ecosystem models, remote sensing) to provide a diagnostic approach to the management of marine ecosystems, based on adaptive indicators and dynamic baselines.     

A Maunder Minimum Scenario Based on Cross-Hemispheric Coupling and Intermittency

A novel scenario for Maunder minimum-like grand minima epochs of reduced solar activity is proposed, based on diffusive coupling between both solar hemispheres, each susceptible to stochastically-driven intermittent behavior. After introducing cross-hemispheric coupling into a well-validated reduced model of the solar cycle based on the Babcock–Leighton mechanism for poloidal field regeneration, simulations are presented demonstrating that even weak coupling can lead to a high degree of synchronicity between the two hemispheres. This is in qualitative agreement with the similar onset and recovery times of sunspot activity at and around the Maunder minimum. Moreover, even weak coupling manages to greatly reduce the frequency and duration of quiescent episodes, again in qualitative agreement with the relative paucity of grand minima in the sunspot and radioisotope records.     

Palaeomagnetism of the Macaronesian Insular Region: The Cape Verde Islands

Palaeomagnetic pole positions have been determined for a collection of igneous rocks, comprising nearly five hundred samples, from the Cape Verde Islands of Santa Antao, Sao Vicente, Sao Nicolao and Sao Tiago. Limited data from the islands of Sal, Maio and Fogo are also presented. Stratigraphic control suggusts that the lavas are overwhelmingly Miocene in age on Sao Tiago and Sao Nicolao. Similarity in the palaeomagnetic pole positions indicates that Miocene lavas are also dominant on Santa Antao and Sao Vicente.
Substantial areas within two of the islands are of reversed polarity only, suggesting either a rapid extrusion rate, or the existence of a long reversed polarity epoch during the Miocene period. The palaeomagnetic pole positions for each island are close to the present geographic pole, excluding the possibility of Post-Miocene differential crustal spreading (or rotation about a vertical axis) in this part of the Atlantic. The palaeomagnetic pole position for the entire survey is consistent with the Miocene geographic pole being removed from, but close to, the present geographic pole; and is in harmony with the European polar wandering curve.     

Spatial and time variations of the interplanetary microparticle flux analysed from deep space probes pioneers 8 and 9

The first results of a comprehensive computer analysis of over 300 front film and grid coincidence events is presented using statistical tests on the observed data. The short term time dependence of the observed flux is entirely commensurate with a random Poisson distribution and any possible contributions from discrete “cometary showers” must certainly be of relatively minor significance compared to the sporadic background for mass > 10^?13 g. Periodic seasonal variations of ～ 20 per cent of the average rate are observed common to Pioneers 8 and 9. These variations could reflect on the cometary nature of the source or alternatively indicate the presence of an interstellar component. The mass spectrum of the flux in the range 10^?11?10^?13 g indicates an increasing flux of particles to the lowest limits of mass detected, with a derived flux of Φ = 1·4 × 10^?12m^?0·68 (g) m^?2 sec^?1(2π ster.)^?1.     

Model-based remote sensing algorithms for particulate organic carbon (POC) in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico

Hydrographic data, including particulate organic carbon (POC) from the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico (NEGOM) study, were combined with remotely-sensed SeaWiFS data to estimate POC concentration using principal component analysis (PCA). The spectral radiance was extracted at each NEGOM station, digitized, and averaged. The mean value and spurious trends were removed from each spectrum. De-trended data included six wavelengths at 58 stations. The correlation between the weighting factors of the first six eigenvectors and POC concentration were applied using multiple linear regression. PCA algorithms based on the first three, four, and five modes accounted for 90, 95, and 98% of total variance and yielded significant correlations with POC with R ² = 0.89, 0.92, and 0.93. These full waveband approaches provided robust estimates of POC in various water types. Three different analyses (root mean square error, mean ratio and standard deviation) showed similar error estimates, and suggest that spectral variations in the modes defined by just the first four characteristic vectors are closely correlated with POC concentration, resulting in only negligible loss of spectral information from additional modes. The use of POC algorithms greatly increases the spatial and temporal resolution for interpreting POC cycling and can be extrapolated throughout and perhaps beyond the area of shipboard sampling.     

The Ashima/MIT Mars GCM and argon in the martian atmosphere

We investigate the ability of modern general circulation models (GCMs) to simulate transport in the martian atmosphere using measurements of argon as a proxy for the transport processes. Argon provides the simplest measure of transport as it is a noble gas with no sinks or sources on seasonal timescales. Variations in argon result solely from ‘freeze distillation’, as the atmosphere condenses at the winter poles, and from atmospheric transport. Comparison of all previously published models when rescaled to a common definition of the argon enhancement factor (EF) suggest that models generally do a poor job in predicting the peak enhancement in southern winter over the winter pole – the time when the capability of the model transport approaches are most severely tested. Despite observed peak EF values of ～6, previously published model predictions peaked at EF values of only 2–3. We introduce a new GCM that provides a better treatment of mass conservation within the dynamical core, includes more sophisticated tracer transport approaches, and utilizes a cube–sphere grid structure thus avoiding the grid-point convergence problem at the pole that exists for most current Mars GCMs. We describe this model – the Ashima Research/Massachusetts Institute of Technology Mars General Circulation Model (Ashima/MIT Mars GCM) and use it to demonstrate the significant sensitivity of peak EF to the choices of transport approach for both tracers and heat. We obtain a peak EF of 4.75 which, while over 50% higher than any prior model, remains well short of the observed value. We show that the polar EF value in winter is primarily determined by the competition between two processes: (1) mean meridional import of lower-latitude air not enriched in argon and (2) the leakage of enriched argon out of the polar column by eddies in the lowest atmospheric levels. We suggest possibilities for improving GCM representation of the CO₂ cycle and the general circulation that may further improve the simulation of the argon cycle. We conclude that current GCMs may be insufficient for detailed simulation of transport-sensitive problems like the water cycle and potentially also the dust cycle.     

N-body simulations of cohesion in dense planetary rings: A study of cohesion parameters

We present results from a large suite of simulations of Saturn’s dense A and B rings using a new model of particle sticking in local simulations (Perrine, R.P., Richardson, D.C., Scheeres, D.J. [2011]. Icarus 212, 719–735). In this model, colliding particles can be incorporated into or help fragment rigid aggregations on the basis of certain user-specified parameters that can represent van der Waals forces or interlocking surface frost layers.Our investigation is motivated by laboratory results that show that interpenetration of surface layers can allow impacting frost-covered ice spheres to stick together. In these experiments, cohesion only occurs below specific impact speeds, which happen to be characteristic of impact speeds in Saturn’s rings. Our goal is to determine if weak bonding is consistent with ring observations, to constrain cohesion parameters in light of existing ring observations, to make predictions about particle populations throughout the rings, and to discover other diagnostics that may constrain bonding parameters.We considered the effects of five parameters on the equilibrium characteristics of our ring simulations: speed-based merge and fragmentation limits, bond strength, ring surface density, and patch orbital distance (i.e., the A or B ring), some with both monodisperse and polydisperse comparison cases. In total, we present data from 95 simulations.We find that weak cohesion is consistent with observations of the A and B rings (e.g., French, R.G., Nicholson, P.D. [2000]. Icarus 145, 502–523), and we present a range of simulation parameters that reproduce the observed size distribution and maximum particle size. It turns out that the parameters that match observations differ between the A and B rings, and we discuss the potential implications of this result. We also comment on other observable consequences of cohesion for the rings, such as optical depth and scale height effects, and discuss whether very large objects (e.g., “propeller” source objects) are grown bottom-up from cohesion of smaller ring particles.     

Numerical simulations of granular dynamics II: Particle dynamics in a shaken granular material

Surfaces of planets and small bodies of our Solar System are often covered by a layer of granular material that can range from a fine regolith to a gravel-like structure of varying depths. Therefore, the dynamics of granular materials are involved in many events occurring during planetary and small-body evolution thus contributing to their geological properties.We demonstrate that the new adaptation of the parallel N-body hard-sphere code pkdgrav has the capability to model accurately the key features of the collective motion of bidisperse granular materials in a dense regime as a result of shaking. As a stringent test of the numerical code we investigate the complex collective ordering and motion of granular material by direct comparison with laboratory experiments. We demonstrate that, as experimentally observed, the scale of the collective motion increases with increasing small-particle additive concentration.We then extend our investigations to assess how self-gravity and external gravity affect collective motion. In our reduced-gravity simulations both the gravitational conditions and the frequency of the vibrations roughly match the conditions on asteroids subjected to seismic shaking, though real regolith is likely to be much more heterogeneous and less ordered than in our idealised simulations. We also show that collective motion can occur in a granular material under a wide range of inter-particle gravity conditions and in the absence of an external gravitational field. These investigations demonstrate the great interest of being able to simulate conditions that are to relevant planetary science yet unreachable by Earth-based laboratory experiments.