Predictions of Energy and Helicity in Four Major Eruptive Solar Flares

In order to better understand the solar genesis of interplanetary magnetic clouds (MCs), we model the magnetic and topological properties of four large eruptive solar flares and relate them to observations. We use the three-dimensional Minimum Current Corona model (Longcope, 1996, Solar Phys. 169, 91) and observations of pre-flare photospheric magnetic field and flare ribbons to derive values of reconnected magnetic flux, flare energy, flux rope helicity, and orientation of the flux-rope poloidal field. We compare model predictions of those quantities to flare and MC observations, and within the estimated uncertainties of the methods used find the following: The predicted model reconnection fluxes are equal to or lower than the reconnection fluxes inferred from the observed ribbon motions. Both observed and model reconnection fluxes match the MC poloidal fluxes. The predicted flux-rope helicities match the MC helicities. The predicted free energies lie between the observed energies and the estimated total flare luminosities. The direction of the leading edge of the MC’s poloidal field is aligned with the poloidal field of the flux rope in the AR rather than the global dipole field. These findings compel us to believe that magnetic clouds associated with these four solar flares are formed by low-corona magnetic reconnection during the eruption, rather than eruption of pre-existing structures in the corona or formation in the upper corona with participation of the global magnetic field. We also note that since all four flares occurred in active regions without significant pre-flare flux emergence and cancelation, the energy and helicity that we find are stored by shearing and rotating motions, which are sufficient to account for the observed radiative flare energy and MC helicity.     

Estimating spatial efficiency using cyber search,GIS, and spatial optimization: a case study of fire service deployment in Los Angeles County

ABSTRACT

The efficiency of public investments and services has been of interest to geographic researchers for several decades. While in the private sector inefficiency often leads to higher prices, loss of competitiveness, and loss of business, in the public sector inefficiency in service provision does not necessarily lead to immediate changes. In many cases, it is not an entirely easy task to analyze a particular service as appropriate data may be difficult to obtain and hidden in detailed budgets. In this paper, we develop an integrative approach that uses cyber search, Geographic Information System (GIS), and spatial optimization to estimate the spatial efficiency of fire protection services in Los Angeles (LA) County. We develop a cyber-search process to identify current deployment patterns of fire stations across the major urban region of LA County. We compare the results of our search to existing databases. Using spatial optimization, we estimate the level of deployment that is needed to meet desired coverage levels based upon the location of an ideal fire station pattern, and then compare this ideal level of deployment to the existing system as a means of estimating spatial efficiency. GIS is adopted throughout the paper to simulate the demand locations, to conduct location-based spatial analysis, to visualize fire station data, and to map model simulation results. Finally, we show that the existing system in LA County has considerable room for improvement. The methodology presented in this paper is both novel and groundbreaking, and the automated assessments are readily transferable to other counties and jurisdictions.     

Sea Level Rise in Miami Beach: Vulnerability and Real Estate Exposure

Sea level rise threatens coastal communities throughout the United States, and South Florida is on the front line. The iconic and built-up city of Miami Beach, Florida, has a well-developed, high-value property market, and the municipality has been lauded for proactively taking action to adapt to anticipated sea level rise. Moving beyond hyperbole and piecemeal evidence, we compile a comprehensive inventory of adaptation and mitigation measures implemented by various municipal agencies. We employ these data sets to measure exposure and readiness for the entire city and make a preliminary effort to develop a city vulnerability index. Our findings reveal that exposure throughout the city is high and that readiness is concentrated near stormwater drainage systems, leading to high vulnerability along the coast. When we compare the spatial patterns of the vulnerability index and the residential property values, we find a mismatch. The most vulnerable regions are characterized by high income, transiency, and an apparent unresponsiveness to sea level rise. No doubt our findings illustrate a lag effect, but if sea level rise increases, the real estate market could reach a tipping point unless state and federal agencies also fund more comprehensive adaptation.     

Petrological,petrofabric, and oxygen isotopic study of five ungrouped meteorites related to brachinites

Northwest Africa (NWA) 6112, Miller Range (MIL) 090206 (plus its pairs: MIL 090340 and MIL 090405), and Divnoe are olivine‐rich ungrouped achondrites. We investigated and compared their petrography, mineralogy, and olivine fabrics. We additionally measured the oxygen isotopic compositions of NWA 6112. They show similar petrography, mineralogy, and oxygen isotopic compositions and we concluded that these five meteorites are brachinite clan meteorites. We found that NWA 6112 and Divnoe had a c axis concentration pattern of olivine fabrics using electron backscattered diffraction (EBSD). NWA 6112 and Divnoe are suggested to have been exposed to magmatic melt flows during their crystallization on their parent body. On the other hand, the three MIL meteorites have b axis concentration patterns of olivine fabrics. This indicates that the three MIL meteorites may be cumulates where compaction of olivine grains was dominant. Alternatively, they formed as residues and were exposed to olivine compaction. The presence of two different olivine fabric patterns implies that the parent body(s) of brachinite clan meteorites experienced diverse igneous processes.     

Comparative Study of the Three-Dimensional Thermodynamical Structure of the Inner Corona of Solar Minimum Carrington Rotations 1915 and 2081

Using differential emission measure tomography (DEMT) based on time series of EUV images, we carry out a quantitative comparative analysis of the three-dimensional (3D) structure of the electron density and temperature of the inner corona (\(r<1.25\,\mathrm{R}_{\odot}\)) between two specific rotations selected from the last two solar minima, namely Carrington Rotations (CR)1915 and CR-2081. The analysis places error bars on the results because of the systematic uncertainty of the sources. While the results for CR-2081 are characterized by a remarkable north–south symmetry, the southern hemisphere for CR-1915 exhibits higher densities and temperatures than the northern hemisphere. The core region of the streamer belt in both rotations is found to be populated by structures whose temperature decreases with height (called “down loops” in our previous articles). They are characterized by plasma \(\beta\gtrsim1\), and may be the result of the efficient dissipation of Alfvén waves at low coronal heights. The comparative analysis reveals that the low latitudes of the equatorial streamer belt of CR-1915 exhibit higher densities than for CR-2081. This cannot be explained by the systematic uncertainties. In addition, the southern hemisphere of the streamer belt of CR-1915 is characterized by higher temperatures and density scale heights than for CR-2081. On the other hand, the coronal hole region of CR-1915 shows lower temperatures than for CR-2081. The reported differences are in the range \({\approx}\,10\,\mbox{--}\,25\%\), depending on the specific physical quantity and region that is compared, as fully detailed in the analysis. For other regions and/or physical quantities, the uncertainties do not allow assessing the thermodynamical differences between the two rotations. Future investigation will involve a DEMT analysis of other Carrington rotations selected from both epochs, and also a comparison of their tomographic reconstructions with magnetohydrodynamical simulations of the inner corona.     

Covariance structure and morphometric analysis—A contribution to paleogenetics

A method of analysis of covariance structure proposed by A. P. Dempster complements, in some respects, a recently suggested procedure by the author. The method is based on the comparison of ratios of generalized statistical distances and distancelike quantities. An analysis of septivariate data on the foraminiferTextilina mexicana (Cushman) shows general differences in covariance structure in which the sample rest linear discriminators also differ. This difference in covariance structure is thought to be genetic in origin. Two species of Middle Devonian brachiopods,Martinia inflata (Schnur) andUncites gryphus von Schlotheim), also show differences in covariance structure—the former slightly, the latter strongly. This is further analyzed forUncites by the author's methods and good agreement between the two approaches obtained.     

Quantitative taxonomy and biostratigraphy of Middle Cambrian trilobites from Montana and Wyoming

This study was made to revise the taxonomy and biostratigraphy of Middle Cambrian trilobites from Montana and Wyoming. Both numerical and conventional analyses were made of the taxonomic and biostratigraphic data. Numerical taxonomy was performed on a sample of 210 OTU's (Operational Taxonomic Units) using 66 characters which were determined on cranidia of Middle Cambrian ptychopariid trilobites. These characters consisted of linear measurements which were transformed to indices proportional to glabellar length, quantitative-qualitative shape or angle measurements, and multistate attributes. The similarity coefficients calculated were average taxonomic distances and Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient. The matrices of similarity coefficients were clustered by single-linkage and unweighted pair-group algorithms. The coordinates of OTU's in a three-dimensional A-space defined by the first three principal axes also were calculated. A phenogram of the distance matrix clustered by UPGMA (which yielded the highest cophenetic correlation coefficient) and a three-dimensional pin-and-ball model were used to interpret the trilobite taxonomy. Insufficiently clear clustering in both representations of taxonomic structure necessitated also a conventional taxonomic study guided by the numerical phenetics. Numerical biostratigraphy was performed with 79 collections as OTU's and 43 trilobite genera as characters. Jaccard coefficients were used as similarity coefficients, and the results were clustered by UPGMA. The resultant phenogram was readily interpretable, and seven faunal assemblage zones (Albertella, Glossopleura, Ehmaniella, Bolaspis-Glyphaspis, Ehmania, Parehmania, and Bolaspidella)are defined for the Middle Cambrian in the study area. Two of the zones (Ehmaniellaand Parehmania)are new and replace part of the previously defined “Bathyuriscus-Elrathina”zone. Bolaspis-Glyphaspis, Ehmania,and Parehmaniazones may have only regional validity.     

The northern limits of glacial lake Algonquin in upper Michigan

A number of ancient shorelines formed by late-Pleistocene proglacial lakes have been found in eastern upper Michigan. These shorelines delimit several water planes, the uppermost of which is correlated with the Main Lake Algonquin stage. This correlation is based on the continuity of the highest water plane with Main Algonquin shorelines in Wisconsin and Ontario, the strength of the shoreline features, its altitudinal relationship with lower water planes, and a reinterpretation of radiocarbon dates from the Sault Ste. Maria area. The isobases of this water plane have a bearing of S75°E. At the time of the maximum extent of Lake Algonquin, ca. 10,600 yr B.P., its northern, ice-limited border lay along the Munising moraine, the northernmost of the two main morainic systems of eastern upper Michigan. This interpretation lends support to the idea of a period of slow deglaciation from ca. 11,000 to 10,000 yr B.P. An ice lobe occupied the central Lake Superior basin until early Holocene time. Radiocarbon dates on wood found beneath till or outwash at several sites indicate a minor ice readvance from the central Lake Superior basin ca. 10,000 yr B.P. If true, this would have prevented the development of the post-Duluth series of glacial lakes in the western Lake Superior basin until ca. 9900 yr B.P., well after the end of the main Lake Algonquin stage.