Regional Considerations of Coastline Change,Tsunami Damage and Recovery along the Southern Coast of the Bay of Izmit (The Kocaeli (Turkey) Earthquake of 17 August 1999)

Co-seismic phenomena along the south coastline included liquefaction, subsidenceand tsunami. Construction on areas composed of fluvial and alluvial sediments aswell as unconsolidated fill increased the risk by creating potential for amplificationof seismic waves. Cyclic mobility liquefaction was common along the coastline, andlevel-ground liquefaction was observed. Flow liquefaction is held forth as a possibilityin the Deirmendere submarine landslide. Damage to structures was markedly more in areas of unconsolidated sediments. One or more tsunami struck immediately after the event; the uniformity of tsunami impact indicating a wave coming from 310° suggests that submarine faulting was the major source of tsunami. Over 800,000 m² of subsidence resulted from sediment slumping, fault controlled subsidence, and possibly post-liquefaction sediment compaction. After a brief period of post-event abandonment, reclamation and use of coastal areas is well underway. This creates a tension between human desires pushing for quick and inexpensive re-inhabitation of the coastal areas, and the needs for zoning and building codes for risk reduction. In this high-risk area suchcontrary cultural mandates cannot yield ideal results. It is suggested that an alternativemodel of immediate post-event creation of parks and natural areas that would yield benefit is preferable in coastal areas rather than the enforcement approach currently favored.     

Dynamical and compositional assessment of near‐Earth object mission targets

Abstract— Using an H‐plot analysis, we identify 234 currently known near‐Earth objects that are accessible for rendezvous with a “best case” delta‐V of less than 7 km/s. We provide a preliminary compositional interpretation and assessment of these potential targets by summarizing the taxonomic properties for 44 objects. Results for one‐half (22) of this sample are based on new spectroscopic measurements presented here. Our approach provides an easy‐to‐update method for giving guidelines to both observers and mission analysts for focusing on objects for which actual mission opportunities are most likely to be found. Observing prospects are presented for categorizing the taxonomic properties of the most accessible targets that are not yet measured.     

The radiative forcing benefits of “cool roof” construction in California: quantifying the climate impacts of building albedo modification

Exploiting surface albedo change has been proposed as a form of geoengineering to reduce the heating effect of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs). Recent modeling experiments have projected significant negative radiative forcing from large-scale implementation of albedo reduction technologies (“cool” roofs and pavements). This paper complements such model studies with measurement-based calculations of the direct radiation balance impacts of replacement of conventional roofing with “cool” roof materials in California. This analysis uses, as a case study, the required changes to commercial buildings embodied in California’s building energy efficiency regulations, representing a total of 4300 ha of roof area distributed over 16 climate zones. The estimated statewide mean radiative forcing per 0.01 increase in albedo (here labeled RF01) is ?1.38 W/m². The resulting unit-roof-area mean annual radiative forcing impact of this regulation is ?44.2 W/m². This forcing is computed to counteract the positive radiative forcing of ambient atmospheric CO₂ at a rate of about 41 kg for each square meter of roof. Aggregated over the 4300 ha of cool roof estimated built in the first decade after adoption of the State regulation, this is comparable to removing about 1.76 million metric tons (MMT) of CO₂ from the atmosphere. The point radiation data used in this study also provide perspective on the spatial variability of cool roof radiative forcing in California, with individual climate zone effectiveness ranging from ?37 to ?59 W/m² of roof. These “bottom-up” calculations validate the estimates reported for published “top down” modeling, highlight the large spatial diversity of the effects of albedo change within even a limited geographical area, and offer a potential methodology for regulatory agencies to account for the climate effects of “cool” roofing in addition to its well-known energy efficiency benefits.     

Holocene alluvial stratigraphy in the upper Susquehanna River Basin, New York

Two alluvial terraces and the present flood plain were studied at two locations along the Susquehanna and Unadilla Rivers in south-central New York state. They have formed since deglaciation and incision of the stream channels into the valley train deposits. The higher terrace has noncumulative soil profiles with well-developed color B horizons predominantly of silt loam and very fine sandy loam. The terrace is weathered to a degree similar to nearby glacial outwash terraces that have caps of similarly textured sediments. Incision that produced the terrace occurred before 9705 ± 130 yr B.P. The lower terrace is characterized by relatively thick, vertical-accretion deposits of silt loam that contain sequences of thin, buried A, color B, and C horizons. They were formed between about 3240 ± 110 (¹⁴C data of soil humin) and 235 ± 80 yr B.P. Deposits above the 235 ± 80 yr B.P. stratum are unweathered. The soil stratigraphy and ¹⁴C dates of soil humin from buried A horizons are surprisingly well correlated between sites. Most sediments of the present flood plain have been deposited since 1120 ± 80 yr B.P. Incipient A horizons and oxidation of inherited organic matter in the subsoil are the only evidence of pedogenesis in the flood-plain deposits that are older than 275 ± 80 yr B.P. The most recent flood-plain fill deposited since then is unaltered. These youngest sediments of the flood plain along with the youngest veneer of vertical-accretion deposits on the lowest terrace are associated with an increased rate of deposition largely attributable to clearing of the forests by settlers, beginning in the late 1700s. Comparison of the alluvial stratigraphy with the radiocarbon-dated pollen stratigraphy of southwestern New York (Miller 1973) reveals some apparent time correlations between alluvial events and vegetation changes. This gives reason to speculate that climatic change or forest catastrophes such as disease or drought are causes of some of the alluvial events.     

Calibration of regional pollen data to construct maps of former forest types in southern Sweden

A method was developed to construct maps of former forest types based on regional pollen data in southern Sweden. The considered species were Alnus, Betula, Carpinus, Corylus, Fagus, Fraxinus, Juniperus, Picea, Pinus, Populus, Quercus, Salix, Tilia and Ulmus. A network of 37 regional pollen sites with high data quality from lakes and peat deposits were selected from Sweden south of 60 ° N. Pollen percentage values were calculated and converted into estimates of tree composition. For controlling the reliability of the reconstruction, the estimates from the core-tops were compared with present day forest inventory data, and local pollen diagrams were compared with the regional pollen diagrams. An inverse distance weighted interpolation algorithm was used to generate maps for each tree species distribution at 2000 BP, 1500 BP, 1000 BP, 500 BP and 0 BP. A supervised classification routine was implemented to generate nine different forest types common to the five studied time intervals. The maps show that the amounts and patterns of distribution of the species and the forest types have varied in a significant but systematic manner through time. The changes are due to human activities, migrational patterns and changes in climate. These maps will be of value as a basis for future landscape planning, forestry and conservation of biodiversity.This is the 20th in a series of papers published in this special AMQUA issue. These papers were presented at the 1994 meeting of the American Quaternary Association held 19–22 June, 1994, at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA. Dr Linda C. K. Shane served as guest editor for these papers.     

Seasonal Forecasting for Climate Hazards: Prospects and Responses

One of the most promising developments for early warning of climate hazards is seasonal climate forecasting. Already forecasts are operational in many parts of the tropics and sub-tropics, particularly for droughts and floods associated with ENSO events. Prospects for further development of seasonal forecasting for a range of climatichazards are reviewed, illustrated with case studies in Africa, Australia, the U.S.A. and Europe. A critical evaluation of the utility of seasonal forecasts centres on vulnerability, communicationchannels, and effective responses. In contrast to short-term prediction, seasonal forecasts raise new issues of preparedness and the use of information.     

Summertime atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of a blue ice area in Queen Maud Land,Antarctica

The surface wind field is an important factor controlling the surface mass balance of Antarctica. This paper focuses on the observed atmospheric circulation during summer of an Antarctic blue ice area in Queen Maud Land. Blue ice areas are characterised by a negative surface mass balance and henceforth provide an interesting location to study the influence of meteorological processes on large local mass balance gradients. During lapse conditions, synoptic forcing determines the surface-layer flow. No significant horizontal temperature gradient with coastal stations could be detected along isobaric surfaces, indicating weak or absent thermal wind. Observations performed at the coastal stations Halley and Georg von Neumayer show the pronounced effects of synoptic forcing. The surface winds in the valley of the blue ice area could be divided into two distinct flow patterns, occurring with about equal frequency during the experiment. Flow type I is associated with cyclonic activity at the coast, resulting in strong easterly winds, precipitation and drifting snow. Flow characteristics inside and outside of the valley are similar during these conditions. Flow type II occurs when a high pressure system develops in the Weddell Sea, weakening the free atmosphere geostrophic winds. A local circulation is able to develop inside the valley of the blue ice area during these tranquil conditions. The transition from flow type II to flow type I is associated with front-like phenomena inside the valley. Some simple theoretical considerations show that surface-layer stability and the upper air geostrophic wind determine the surface flow direction in the valley. Finally, the influence of the observed circulation on the energy and mass balance of the blue ice area is discussed.     

Micromechanical analysis of cyclic and asymptotic behaviors of a granular backfill

The paper examines the mechanics and physics of granular material responses at the macroscopic and microscopic levels during both monotonic and cyclic loadings. A numerical analysis referring to a long retaining wall is conducted using a two-dimensional discrete element model representing a granular system with a free top surface. On one of the lateral boundaries referring to the retaining wall, both active and passive loadings were applied monotonically as well as cyclically. First, the development of sheared zones and classic failure wedges resulting from active and passive monotonic displacements are discussed with respect to Rankine’s and Roscoe’s solution angles. Then, a series of loading cycles were performed using slow small-amplitude displacements at different stress states chosen before the occurrence of failure along the passive monotonic stress response curve. Particular interest is focused on the ultimate asymptotic cyclic response of the granular system, the occurrence of a high-mobility (convective) zone and a detailed macroscopic and microscopic analysis. Finally, major kinematical features that are displayed during cyclic loading from different starting stresses to eventually reach the same asymptotic state were elucidated through particle vortex-like flux formations, including contact rotations. The change in material stiffness was also investigated based on the evolution of strong and weak contact networks, together with the analysis of fabric anisotropy within the entire domain, including the high-mobility zone considered separately.

     

Case Histories of Shallow Time Domain Electromagnetics in Environmental Site Assessment

Time domain electromagnetic (TDEM) soundings were utilized in site assessment studies for the purpose of accomplishing two objectives: (1) measuring the migration of brines from oil and gas field evaporation pits, and (2) mapping the continuity of clay strata. Both case histories are representative of common objectives in site assessment. The data for both examples were analyzed by one-dimensional ridge regression inversions.
Both case histories illustrate that TDEM is an effective method for determining the lateral and vertical resistivity distribution (geoelectric section) of the subsurface in the depth range from about 5 m to 100 m, and it is known from other investigations that depths of investigations up to 2500 m can be achieved with TDEM.
Frequently, the lateral extent of contaminant plumes emanating from localized sources are of limited areal extent. The case history involving the use of TDEM to map a brine plume shows that a TDEM measurement has a relatively small zone of influence, so that meaningful information about the lateral and vertical extent of the plume can be obtained. Both case histories demonstrate the ability of TDEM to determine geoelectric sections below layers of low resistivity.     

Statewide Estimates of Undiscovered Deposits of Gold,Silver, Copper,Lead, and Zinc

Estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits on a statewide basis offer a different perspective on the nation's undiscovered resources of gold, silver, copper, lead, and zinc. Mean estimates of the number of undiscovered deposits statewide were extracted from the estimates of undiscovered deposits nationwide. More than 50 undiscovered deposits are estimated to occur in Alaska, Arizona, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Estimating the number of undiscovered deposits statewide serves as a measure of a state's total remaining mineral resources in known conventional deposit types.