Assessing the effectiveness of non-structural flood management measures in the Thames Estuary under conditions of socio-economic and environmental change

Risk analysis and appraisal of the benefits of structural flood risk management measures such as embankments is well established. Here, a method to quantify, over extended timescales, the effectiveness of non-structural measures such as land use spatial planning, insurance and flood resilient construction is presented. The integrated approach couples socio-economic and climate change scenarios with long term land use modelling and flood risk analysis to generate maps and time series of expected annual damages. The analysis has been applied on a case study in the Thames Estuary in the UK. Stakeholders helped develop a number of scenarios that might lead to substantial changes in existing planning and insurance policies in the UK. The effectiveness of these changes was analysed and showed the substantial benefits in terms of reduction of future flood risks that are achievable with changes in planning policy, financial incentives and resilient property construction in the floodplain. Moreover, the reward can be increased through earlier action. Subsequently, the benefits of a range of policies are explored under the UK Foresight socio-economic scenarios. Different structural and non structural flood management interventions are tested and the results demonstrate that despite the potential for large increases in flood risk in the Thames Estuary, in all scenarios substantial flood risk reductions are possible. The effectiveness of non-structural measures is however sensitive to socio-economic changes and governance arrangements. The analysis described here will help to identify portfolios of non-structural and structural options that are robust to uncertainties.     

Puu Hou littoral cones,Hawaii

The Puu Hou littoral cones, on the south shoreline of Hawaii, were built in 5 days by steam explosions from two narrow lava streams of the 1868 Mauna Loa lava flows as they entered the sea. Explosions occurred in localized areas of both streams, from foci that migrated seaward as the flow built jetties into the sea. Debris, radially ejected from the migrating explosion centers, fell partly on land and partly at sea, and thus formed crescent shaped rims (half-cones) on land which overlap one another. The half-cones are breached through their centers by debris-free basalt corridors, because fragments that fell onto the flowing lava were carried seaward beyond the accumulating rims.Gray and red clastic layers are draped smoothly over the rim areas; thus the rims resemble anticlinal arches in cross section. Some beds can be traced from clastic layers on the ridges into irregular agglomeratic masses interbedded with basalt units of the source lava near the foci. The lower layers in the clastic sequence contain less olivine than those high in the sequence, which corresponds in time to an increasing olivine content during the 5 day flow, as recognized in the source lava.Fragments are angular to subangular blocks, lapilli and ash of crystalline basalt mixed with more abundant quickly chilled cognate material of similar sizes. The ash is mostly sideromelane in angular particles and rounded droplets (5–95%), tachylite (2–70%), crystalline basalt (1–40%), and broken olivine phenocrysts (1–9%). In some samples, the sideromelane droplets are partly oxidized on their surfaces, and internally are dark brown (R. I.=1.610–1.616), possibly due to dehydration and/or oxidation during the explosions. Samples with externally oxidized glass also contain etched olivine crystals and some iddingsite. Unaltered sideromelane droplets are pale yellowish-brown with R. I.=1.592–1.600, and are associated with unaltered, angular to subangular olivine crystals. The refractive index of the unaltered sideromelane droplets is the same as sideromelane crusts of pahoehoe on the lava flow farther inland, suggesting that the droplets are not hydrated or highly oxidized. None of the sideromelane fragments are palagonitized, presumably because little or no hydration has taken place since 1868.

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Zusammenfassung Die littoralen Spratzkegel von Puu Hou an der Südküste von Hawaii sind innerhalb von 5 Tagen durch Dampfexplosionen in zwei naheliegenden Lavaströmen des Mauna Loa-Ausbruches im Jahre 1868 entstanden, als diese das Meer erreichten. Die Explosionen traten in eng begrenzten Bereichen beider Ströme auf; die Explosionsherde wanderten mit den Lavaströmen seewärts, wobei sich Landzungen in den Ozean bauten. Aus den seewärts wandernden Explosionsherden wurden Fragmente ausgeworfen, die teilweise auf das Land und in den Ozean fielen; es formten sich dabei halbkreisartige Ränder (Halbkegel), die sich am Land überlappen. Die Halbkegel sind in der Mitte von Basaltkorridoren durchbrochen, die frei von Explosionsfragmenten sind, da diese in die strömende Lava fielen und seewärts abtransportiert wurden.Graue und rote pyro-klastische Sedimentlagen legen sich über die Randzonen der Halbkegel, so daß sie im Querschnitt wie Antiklinalstrukturen aussehen. Einige dieser Schichten können mit klastischen Lagen vom randlichen Saum bis zu irregulären Agglomeratmassen verfolgt werden, die zwischen die Basalte nahe der Explosionsherde eingeschaltet sind. Die tieferen Lagen der klastischen Sedimente enthalten weniger Olivin als die höher liegenden. Dieses entspricht einem sich zeitlich vermehrenden Olivingehalt während der fünftägigen Ausbruchszeit, wie er auch in der Originallava erkannt werden kann.Die Bruchstücke bestehen aus angularen bis subangularen Blöcken, Lapilli und Kristallaschen, die mit rasch erkalteten Lavafetzen ähnlicher Korngröße vermischt sind. Die Asche enthält hauptsächlich Sideromelan in eckigen Bruchstücken und gefundeten Tröpfchen (5–95%), Tachylyt (2–70%), Kristallbasalt (1–40%) und zerbrochene Olivineinsprenglinge (1-9%).In einigen Proben sind die Sideromelantröpfchen teilweise auf ihren Oberflächen oxydiert und im Inneren möglicherweise durch Dehydrierung und/oder Oxydation während der Explosionen dunkelbraun gefärbt (R. I.=1.610-1.616).Proben mit äußerlich oxydiertem Glas enthalten auch angeätzte Olivinkristalle und einigen Iddingsit. Unveränderte Sideromelantröpfchen sind blaß gelblichbraun gefärbt (R. I.=1.592–1.600) und mit unveränderten, eckigen bis subangolaren Olivinkristallen vergesellschaftet. Der Brechungsindex der unveränderten Sideromelantröpfchen ist derselbe wie von Sideromelankrusten auf den Lavaströmen Pahoehoes. Daraus kann gefolgert werden, daß die Tröpfchen nicht hydratisiert oder stark oxydiert sind. Die Sideromelanbruchstücke enthalten keinen Palagonit, weil seit 1868 wahrscheinlich wenig oder gar keine Hydratisierung mehr stattgefunden hat.

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Résumé Les cônes littoraux Puu Hou, sur la côte sud d'Hawai' ont été créés en cinq jours par les explosions de vapeur de deux branches étroites de la coulée de lave de Mauna Loa en 1868 lorsqu'elle entrait en contact avec la mer. Les explosions se sont produites dans des points localisés des deux branches de la coulée à partir du centre avançant en direction de la mer à mesure que la lave y construisait des jetées. Les débris projetés à la ronde depuis les centres d'explosion mobiles tombèrement en partie sur terre et en partie en mer formant ainsi sur le sol des bourrelets en forme de croissants (demi-cônes) qui s'entrecoupent. Les demi-cônes sont traversés dans leur centre par des couloirs de basalte dépourvus de débris, les fragments tombés dans la coulée de lave ayant été entraînés vers la mer au delà des bourrelets d'accumulation.Les couches élastiques grises et rouges sont drapées d'une manière égale au-dessus de la zone des bourrelets. Elle ressemble ainsi à des arches anticlinales en coupe. Certains lits peuvent être retracés à partir des couches élastiques sur les crêtes jusqu'à des masses agglomérées irrégulières mélangées à des éléments de basalte de la lave mère. Les couches inférieures de la séquence élastique contiennent moins d'olivine que les couches supérieures ce qui correspond à un accroissement de la proportion d'olivine pendant les 5 jours ue coulée, comme le lit de lave indique.Les fragments sont des blocs angulaires à sous-angulaires, des lapilli et de la cendre de basalte cristallin, mêlés à des matériaux apparentés de taille semblable, plus abondants et rapidement refroidis. La cendre est composée principalement de sidéromélane en particules anguleuses ou en gouttelettes rondes (5–95%), de tachylite (2–70%), de basalte cristallin (1–40%) et d'olivine phénocristale brisée (1–9%). Dans quelques échantillons, les gouttelettes de sidéromélane sont en partie oxydées à la surface et brun-foncé à l'intérieur (R. I.=1.610–1.616), peut-être par suite de déshydratation e/ou oxydation pendant l'explosion. Les échantillons comportant extérieurement du verre oxydé contiennent des cristaux d'olivine attaqués et une certaine proportion d'iddingsite. Les gouttelettes de sidéromélane intactes, sont d'un jaune-brun pâle, R. I.=1.592-1.600, et sont associées à des cristaux d'olivine non-attaquées, angulaires à sous-angulaires. L'indice de réfraction des gouttelettes intactes de sidéromélane est le même que celui de la croûte de sidéromélane du pahoehoe dans la coulée de lave plus à l'intérieur de l'île, suggérant que les gouttelettes ne sont pas hydratées ou très oxydées. Aucun des fragments de sidéromélane n'est palagonisé, sans doute parce que depuis 1868 il n'y a eu que peu ou pas d'hydratation.

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, 1868 Puu Hou . Ha , .

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Dedicated to Professor Dr. A.Rittmann on the occasion of his 75. birthday     

Morphology and Histology of Lattice-like Ossified Epaxial Tendons in Psittacosaurus (Dinosauria: Ceratopsia)

<正>Epaxial tendons play an important role in the study of the musculoskeletal system and locomotory style of dinosaurs.Although the ossified epaxial tendon lattice is fairly well known in Iguanodontoidea,only recently has knowledge of this complex been extended to ceratopsians.This study concerns the gross morphology and microstructure of the tendon lattice in Psittacosaurus,a basal ceratopsian.As in the neoceratopsian Chasmosaurus,the ossified tendons of Psittacosaurus form a three-layered, lattice-like structure.The microstructure of the tendons in large psittacosaur individuals retains an early stage of ossification,as in juvenile birds and nestling hadrosaurs,suggesting a slow developmental rate of ossification of the tendons in psittacosaur ontogeny.Comparative study indicates that a lattice-like arrangement of three-layered epaxial tendons is widely distributed in Cerapoda.This pattern also extends to Ankylosauria,implying a similar pattern of the epaxial muscles through the ornithischian clade.In addition,comparison with crocodiles implies that the different morphology of ossified tendons in dinosaurs may be associated with adaptive aspects of their paleobiology,not simply a side effect of skeletal ossification.In contrast to the short tendons in quadrupedal Chasmosaurus and Protoceratops,the elongated tendons in Psittacosaurus may be related to the bipedal locomotion characteristic of this taxon.     

Loch lomond stadial glacier at Fan Hir,Mynydd Du (Brecon Beacons), South Wales: Critical evidence and palaeoclimatic implications

The c. 1·2 km long, up to c. 25 m high ridge east of the almost north-south aligned Fan Hir scarp, Mynydd Du, South Wales has been regarded as a remarkable protalus rampart formed in the Loch Lomond Stadial (c. 11–10000 years BP ). New data are presented which indicate that it is a moraine. The main points supporting this glacigenic origin are: its curved plan form at the lower, southern end; its scale and the ample depth for snow to glacier ice transformation; the presence of subsidiary ridges interpreted as recessional moraines; the exceptional rate of rockwall retreat required if it were a protalus rampart; and, most importantly, the presence in the ridge of matrix-supported abraded clasts, up to 20% of which are striated. Useful criteria for differentiating moraines and protalus ramparts are thereby proposed and a sound basis is provided for palaeoclimatic reconstruction. Palaeoclimatic inferences imply that the glacier owed its existence to the combined effect of a mean July temperature of c. 8·5°C and topographically enhanced accumulation, nearly half of which was from wind-blown snow.     

中尺度数值模式中湿过程参数化的敏感性试验

本文利用一个三维中尺度模式，分别采用两种不同的湿过程处理方案ＦＰＡ和ＮＣＡ模拟同一个洋面冷锋个例，以考察模拟结果对湿过程参数化方案的敏感性。两种方案的区别在于前一种使用了次网格湿对流参数化而后者没有。通过比较分别使用ＦＰＡ和ＮＣＡ方案所进行的模拟ＦＰＳ和ＮＣＳ，发现冷锋结构在两者间出现较大差异。从８５０ hPa等压面|Δθe|等值线图所显示的结构看，ＮＣＳ中冷锋呈现为一长一短两条锋带，而ＦＰＳ中冷锋仅呈现为一条锋带。在相应的冷锋横向垂直剖面中，ＮＣＳ中存在两个相邻的锋面垂直环流，而ＦＰＳ中只有一个。另外，ＮＣＳ中对流不稳定的冷锋区出现垂直运动过分发展的现象，而ＦＰＳ中不存在这个问题。通过与卫星云图比较，我们注意到，ＮＣＳ中尽管出现了垂直运动过分发展的现象，但相对于ＦＰＳ而言，其模拟的冷锋结构与实际较为接近，成功地模拟出云图上显示的双冷锋结构。ＮＣＳ中垂直运动过分发展的一个重要原因是模式中采用的静力平衡近似。ＦＰＳ中次网格对流参数化方案的使用，通过减少甚至消除对流不稳定度，一方面使垂直运动的过分发展倾向受到约束，另一方面也可能使在对流不稳定层结下的锋区环境中本应出现的中尺度结构失去了形成的机会。     

Spatio-temporal changes in land cover and aquatic macrophytes of the Danube floodplain lake

The aquatic vegetation of ?í?ov Lake in the Danube floodplain, which is listed in the Ramsar Convention, was investigated to address three main questions: (1) how have landscape composition and the structures of the lake and its buffer zone changed from the mid-20th century; (2) how have species richness and the abundance of the aquatic macrophyte assemblage in this lake ecosystem changed over the last 34 years; and (3) which landscape metrics can best explain these temporal changes for floating-leaved macrophytes? Two methodological approaches, remote sensing and botanical field surveys, were applied. Historical (1949, 1970, 1990) and contemporary (2006) aerial photographs were analysed to determine land cover. Landscape configuration and structure were analysed using eight landscape metrics selected in advance to measure spatio-temporal changes and the fragmentation of the lake ecosystem and its corresponding buffer zone. The species diversity, abundance and distribution of true aquatic macrophytes were surveyed eleven times in five survey stretches between 1973 and 2007.At the landscape level, a decrease in the area covered by floating-leaved macrophytes, as well as an increase in open water surface and fragmentation of the land cover classes in the lake ecosystem, were recorded from 1949 to 2006. Overall, 30 true aquatic macrophytes were found from 1973 to 2007. Species richness did not change considerably, but the abundance of aquatic species fluctuated over the years. Three groups of true aquatic vegetation, based on common structural characteristics, were found in 1973–1983, 1989–2002, and 2004–2007 over the last 34 years. The landscape metrics NP, PD, LPI, and SHDI, which all express patterns of landscape fragmentation mostly indicate temporal changes in floating-leaved macrophytes.     

Flux and dispersion of gases from the “Drachenschlund” hydrothermal vent at 8°18' S, 13°30' W on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Hydrothermal emission of mantle helium appears to be directly related to magma production rate, but other processes can generate methane and hydrogen on mid-ocean ridges. In an on-going effort to characterize these processes in the South Atlantic, the flux and distribution of these gases were investigated in the vicinity of a powerful black smoker recently discovered at 8°17.9' S, 13°30.4' W. The vent lies on the shoulder of an oblique offset in the Mid-Atlantic Ridge and discharges high concentrations of methane and hydrogen. Measurements during expeditions in 2004 and 2006 show that the ratio of CH₄ to ³He in the neutrally buoyant plume is quite high, 4 × 10⁸. The CTD stations were accompanied by velocity measurements with lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP), and from these data we estimate the methane transport to have been 0.5 mol s^− 1 in a WSW-trending plume that seems to develop during the ebb tidal phase. This transport is an order of magnitude greater than the source of CH₄ calculated from its concentration in the vent fluid and the rise height of the plume. From this range of methane fluxes, the source of ³He is estimated to be between 0.14 and 1.2 nmol s^− 1. In either case, the ³He source is significantly lower than expected from the spreading rate of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge. From the inventory of methane in the rift valley adjacent to the vent, it appears that the average specific rate of oxidation is 2.6 to 23 yr^− 1, corresponding to a turnover time between 140 and 16 days. Vertical profiles of methane in the surrounding region often exhibited Gaussian-like distributions, and the variances appear to increase with distance from the vent. Using a Gaussian plume model, we obtained a range of vertical eddy diffusivities between 0.009 and 0.08 m²m² s^− 1. These high values may be due to tidally driven internal waves across the promontory on which the vent is located.     

Origins and evolution of rhyolitic magmas in the central Snake River Plain: insights from coupled high-precision geochronology,oxygen isotope,and hafnium isotope analyses of zircon

We present new high-precision CA-ID-TIMS and in situ U–Pb ages together with Hf and O isotopic analyses (analyses performed all on the same grains) from four tuffs from the 15?10 Ma Bruneau–Jarbidge center of the Snake River Plain and from three rhyolitic units from the Kimberly borehole in the neighboring 10?6 Ma Twin Falls volcanic center. We find significant intrasample diversity in zircon ages (ranges of up to 3 Myr) and in δ¹⁸O (ranges of up to 6‰) and ε_Hf (ranges of up to 24 ε units) values. Zircon rims are also more homogeneous than the associated cores, and we show that zircon rim growth occurs faster than the resolution of in situ dating techniques. CA-ID-TIMS dating of a subset of zircon grains from the Twin Falls samples reveals complex crystallization histories spanning 10⁴–10⁶ years prior to some eruptions, suggesting that magma genesis was characterized by the cyclic remelting of buried volcanic rocks and intrusions associated with previous magmatic episodes. Age-dependent trends in zircon isotopic compositions show that rhyolite production in the Yellowstone hotspot track is driven by the mixing of mantle-derived melts (normal δ¹⁸O and ε_Hf) and a combination of Precambrian basement rock (normal δ¹⁸O and ε_Hf down to ??60) and shallow Mesozoic and Cenozoic age rocks, some of which are hydrothermally altered (to low δ¹⁸O values) by earlier stages of Snake River Plain magmatism. These crustal melts hybridize with juvenile basalts and rhyolites to produce the erupted rhyolites. We also observe that the Precambrian basement rock is only an important component in the erupted magmas in the first eruption at each caldera center, suggesting that the accumulation of new intrusions quickly builds an upper crustal intrusive body which is isolated from the Precambrian basement and evolves towards more isotopically juvenile and lower-δ¹⁸O compositions over time.     

Structural chemistry of synthetic cordierite: Evidence for solid solutions and disordered compositional domains in Bi-flux-grown Mg-cordierites

The structure, crystal chemistry, and microstructure of disordered and ordered Mg-cordierites synthesized in a bismuth oxide flux system have been studied by a combination of x-ray and neutron powder diffraction and quantitative x-ray microanalysis using analytical electron microscopy. Microchemical data obtained on Bi-flux cordierites using energy-dispersive x-ray analysis is interpreted through comparison with data collected on stoichiometric Mg₂Al₄Si₅O₁₈ glass and α- and β-cordierite samples synthesized by subsolidus crystallization of the glass. Bi-flux cordierites crystallize in both the hexagonal and orthorhombic polymorphs and contain 5 to 10 at% occupancy of bismuth on the C1 and C2 channel sites. The microstructure of Bi-flux α-cordierite is characterized by the existence of local domains of disordered cordierite solid solutions with variable composition and significant vacancy concentrations on the octahedral site. The β-cordierites have a more homogeneous microstructure but are still Al-deficient, Si-rich solid solutions.     

Volcanic geology and eruption frequency,lower east rift zone of Kilauea volcano,Hawaii

Detailed geologic mapping and radiocarbon dating of tholeiitic basalts covering about 275 km² on the lower east rift zone (LERZ) and adjoining flanks of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, show that at least 112 separate eruptions have occurred during the past 2360 years. Eruptive products include spatter ramparts and cones, a shield, two extensive lithic-rich tuff deposits, aa and pahoehoe flows, and three littoral cones. Areal coverage, number of eruptions and average dormant interval estimates in years for the five age groups assigned are: (I) historic, i.e. A D 1790 and younger: 25%, 5, 42.75; (II) 200–400 years old: 50%, 15, 14.3: (III) 400–750 years old: 20%, 54, 6.6; (IV) 750–1500 years old: 5%, 37, 20.8; (V) 1500–3000 years old: <1%, 1, unknown. At least 4.5–6 km³ of tholeiitic basalt have been erupted from the LERZ during the past 1500 years. Estimated volumes of the exposed products of individual eruptions range from a few tens of cubic meters for older units in small kipukas to as much as 0.4 km³ for the heiheiahulu shield. The average dormant interval has been about 13.6 years during the past 1500 years. The most recent eruption occurred in 1961, and the area may be overdue for its next eruption. However, eruptive activity will not resume on the LERZ until either the dike feeding the current eruption on the middle east rift zone extends farther down rift, or a new dike, unrelated to the current eruption, extends into the LERZ.