Temperature predictability in the Great Mediterranean Area

Summary ¶Long range forecasting of annual and seasonal average temperatures has been considered from two different approaches in an area centered over the Mediterranean Sea. They both are statistical approaches trying to forecast annual or seasonal mean temperature values several months in advance. The methods are Optimate Climate Normals and an extension of this called Climate Normal Functions. Both methods try to forecast temperature from the past behavior of the series. Their performances are examined and compared. The best results are obtained for Southern Europe, while Eastern Europe exhibits the poorest predictability. The results suggest that the North Atlantic Oscillation can be a major factor ruling predictability in some areas of the region considered.Received January 28, 2003; revised October 24, 2002; accepted December 7, 2002 Published online June 2, 2003     

Variability in the Hydrographic and Biological Features of the Gulf of Naples

Abstract. Recent observations of physico-chemical and biological parameters in the Gulf of Naples are summarized. The water masses present within the Gulf during the various periods of the year are described. The temporal and spatial distribution of surface nutrients (N-NO₃, P-PO₄, Si-SiO₄) and chlorophyll a are reported and the areas exposed to local eutrophication are identified. Biweekly sampling at a reference station has permitted us also to identify both phytoplankton and zooplankton seasonal cycles. The morphology of the basin and the uneven land runoff distribution are interpreted as causal to the variability of chemico-physical parameters and of the associated biological communities, giving rise to two subsystems (coastal and "open water") within the Gulf.     

Interannual variability of cut-off low systems over the European sector: The role of blocking and the Northern Hemisphere circulation modes

Summary An earlier developed multidecadal database of Northern Hemisphere cut-off low systems (COLs), covering a 41 years period (from 1958 to 1998) is used to study COLs interannual variability in the European sector (25°–47.5° N, 50° W–40° E) and the major factors controlling it. The study focus on the influence on COLs interannual variability, of larger scale phenomena such as blocking events and other main circulation modes defined over the Euro-Atlantic region. It is shown that there is a very large interannual variability in the COLs occurrence at the annual and seasonal scales, although without significant trends. The influence of larger scale phenomena is seasonal dependent, with the positive phase of the NAO favoring autumn COL development, while winter COL occurrence is mostly related to blocking events. During summer, the season when more COLs occur, no significant influences were found.     

Letter to the editor Are the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation related in any time-scale?

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Oscillation (SO) are compared from the standpoint of a possible common temporal scale of oscillation. To do this a cross-spectrum of the temporal series of NAO and SO indices was determined, finding a significant common oscillation of 6/8 years. To assure this finding, both series were decomposed in their main oscillations using singular spectrum analysis (SSA). Resulting reconstructed series of 6/8 years oscillation were then cross-correlated without and with pre-whitened, the latter being significant. The main conclusion is a possible relationship between a common oscillation of 6/8 years that represents about 20% of the SO variance and about 25% of the NAO variance.     

Interannual Variability of the Annual Cycle of Temperature over Northern Africa

In this study, the imprints of two major atmospheric variability modes - ENSO and NAO - on the annual cycle of temperature over Northern Africa, a region sensitive to both modes, are investigated. Results from adjusting the annual cycle from daily data on a high resolution grid, indicate that both NAO and ENSO are able to influence significantly the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle and, consequently, that interannual trends found in amplitude and phase can be not exclusively due to greenhouse gases effects.     

The green–blue swing: plasticity of plankton food‐webs in response to coastal oceanographic dynamics

The internal organization of plankton communities plays a key role in biogeochemical cycles and in the functioning of aquatic ecosystems. In this study, the structure of a marine plankton community (including both unicellular and multicellular organisms) was inferred by applying an ecological network approach to species abundances observed weekly at the long‐term ecological research station MareChiara (LTER‐MC) in the Gulf of Naples (Tyrrhenian Sea, Mediterranean Sea) in the summers of 2002–2009. Two distinct conditions, characterized by different combination of salinity and chlorophyll values, alternated at the site: one influenced by coastal waters, herein named ‘green’, and the other reflecting more offshore conditions, named ‘blue’. The green and blue ‘phases’ showed different keystone biological elements: namely, large diatoms and small‐sized flagellates, respectively. Several correlations amongst species belonging to different trophic groups were found in both phases (connectance ~0.30). In the green phase, several links between phytoplankton and mesozooplankton and within the latter were detected, suggesting matter flow from microbes up to carnivorous zooplankton. A microbial‐loop‐like sub‐web, including mixo‐ and heterotrophic dinoflagellates and ciliates, was present in the green phase, but it was relatively more important in the blue phase. The latter observation suggests a more intense cycling of matter at the microbial trophic level in the blue phase. These results show that different modes of ecological organization can emerge from relatively small changes in the composition of aquatic communities coping with environmental variability. This highlights a significant plasticity in the internal structure of plankton webs, which should be taken into account in predictions of the potential effects of climatic oscillations on aquatic ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles therein.