Spatio-temporal variation of transition probability of bursting events over the ripples at the bed of open channel

In this study, the turbulent flow structure over the ripples at the bed of open channel was investigated experimentally. An analysis of bursting process was used to recognize the susceptible regions for sediment entrainment and deposition over the ripples. Two artificial ripples were built according to the ripples, formed by nature. Three different configurations of ripples were used by changing the wavelength. According to analysis of bursting event it was found that at the stoss side of ripples, quadrants (II) and (IV) were dominant to the quadrants (I) and (III) and at the lee side of the ripple it was vice versa. Also the transition probabilities of the bursting events were determined. The results showed that stable organizations of each class of the events had highest transition probabilities whereas cross organizations had lowest transition probabilities. Additionally, an effort was made to find the average inclination angle of the bursting events in quadrants (II) and (IV). The results showed that the mean angle of events in quadrants (II) and (IV) increases at the downstream of stoss side to the crest in each experimental test. Also, at the lee side where the sediment particles were deposited, the inclination angles had the highest values.     

Earthquake hazard assessment in the Zagros Orogenic Belt of Iran using a fuzzy rule-based model

Producing accurate seismic hazard map and predicting hazardous areas is necessary for risk mitigation strategies. In this paper, a fuzzy logic inference system is utilized to estimate the earthquake potential and seismic zoning of Zagros Orogenic Belt. In addition to the interpretability, fuzzy predictors can capture both nonlinearity and chaotic behavior of data, where the number of data is limited. In this paper, earthquake pattern in the Zagros has been assessed for the intervals of 10 and 50 years using fuzzy rule-based model. The Molchan statistical procedure has been used to show that our forecasting model is reliable. The earthquake hazard maps for this area reveal some remarkable features that cannot be observed on the conventional maps. Regarding our achievements, some areas in the southern (Bandar Abbas), southwestern (Bandar Kangan) and western (Kermanshah) parts of Iran display high earthquake severity even though they are geographically far apart.     

Linear and non-linear approaches to predict the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor of overland flow using the extreme learning machine approach

In modeling of overland flow and erosion, the overland flow friction factor (f), is a crucial factor. Due to the importance of a good understanding of f and its variability, the current study aimed to investigate the capability of non-linear approaches to estimate the Darcy-Weisbach friction factor of overland flow and its components (sediment transport, wave, form, and grain friction factors) through the Extreme Learning Machine (ELM) approach. Four datasets were used herein which were obtained from flume experiments done by different researchers. In order to investigate the effects of different parameters on the friction factor, numerous models consisting of various parameters were utilized to predict the friction factor using the ELM approach. The modeling procedure was established in two stages; the first stage aimed to model the overland flow friction factor and investigate the effect of the different parameters on the friction factor using non-linear separation via the ELM approach. In the second stage, the friction factor was linearly separated into different types of friction factors and then the separate components were estimated. Sensitivity analysis results confirmed the key role of Froude number (Fr) values for most of the models. On the other hand, the results obtained for estimated values of the friction factor were acceptable and outperformed available empirical approaches.     

Modification of the DRASTIC Framework for Mapping Groundwater Vulnerability Zones

The DRASTIC technique is commonly used to assess groundwater vulnerability. The main disadvantage of the DRASTIC method is the difficulty associated with identifying appropriate ratings and weight assignments for each parameter. To mitigate this issue, ratings and weights can be approximated using different methods appropriate to the conditions of the study area. In this study, different linear (i.e., Wilcoxon test and statistical approaches) and nonlinear (Genetic algorithm [GA]) modifications for calibration of the DRASTIC framework using nitrate (NO₃) concentrations were compared through the preparation of groundwater vulnerability maps of the Meshqin-Shahr plain, Iran. Twenty-two groundwater samples were collected from wells in the study area, and their respective NO₃ concentrations were used to modify the ratings and weights of the DRASTIC parameters. The areas found to have the highest vulnerability were in the eastern, central, and western regions of the plain. Results showed that the modified DRASTIC frameworks performed well, compared to the unmodified DRASTIC. When measured NO₃ concentrations were correlated with the vulnerability indices produced by each method, the unmodified DRASTIC method performed most poorly, and the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC method proved optimal. Compared to the unmodified DRASTIC method with an R² of 0.22, the Wilcoxon–GA–DRASTIC obtained a maximum R² value of 0.78. Modification of DRASTIC parameter ratings was found to be more efficient than the modification of the weights in establishing an accurately calibrated DRASTIC framework. However, modification of parameter ratings and weights together increased the R² value to the highest degree.     

Evaluation of Negative Economic-Environmental Externalities of Overextraction of Groundwater

In recent decades, increased extraction of groundwater for human and agriculture consumption has led to a substantial drop in groundwater level in large areas of across the world. Declining groundwater levels is a serious problem in itself and has multiple economic, social, cultural, political, security-related, and environmental externalities. The negative economic-environmental externalities of overextraction of groundwater in the Orzouiyeh plain in the Kerman Province, Iran, were evaluated using methods such as replacement cost, production function, market prices, shadow price, and the value of the input marginal product. After evaluating externalities, the Positive Mathematical Programming method was used to evaluate different water policies to reduce the consumption of groundwater. The total economic losses due to the externalities were calculated to equal 2.8 U.S. million dollars. The damages caused by environmental externalities were calculated to equal 436.1 U.S. million dollars. The results related to the positive planning model show that the best policy among different options, such as deficit irrigation policy or combined policies, involves implementation of pressurized irrigation systems.     

Quantitative pore-type characterization from well logs based on the seismic petrophysics in a carbonate reservoir

Quality, availability and consistency of the measured and interpreted well log data are essential in the seismic reservoir characterization methods, and seismic petrophysics is the recommended workflow to achieve data consistency between logs and seismic domains. This paper uses seismic petrophysics workflow to improve well logs and pore geometry interpretations for an oil carbonate reservoir in the Fahliyan Formation in the southwest of Iran. The petrophysical interpreted well logs, rock physics and well-to-seismic tie analysis are integrated into the proposed workflow. Our implementation incorporates revising petrophysical well log interpretations and updating pore geometry characteristics to obtain a better well-tie quality. We first propose an improved pore-type characterization approach based on both P- and S-wave velocities for quantifying pore geometry. Then, seismic logs are estimated accordingly, and the results are used in the well-to-seismic analysis. The quality of the well-tie is improved, furthermore, by iterating on the petrophysical interpreted well logs as well as the calculated pore geometries. For the intervals with high-quality data, our workflow improves the consistency between the results of measured and modelled seismic logs. For the intervals with problematic well logs, the application of our proposed workflow results in the successful replacement of the poor data and subsequently leads to an improved wavelet estimation and well-tie results. In both cases, a higher quantification of pore geometries is achieved, which in turn is confirmed by the core images and formation micro-imager analysis.     

A new solution to estimate the time delay on the topographic site using time domain 3D boundary element method

This study focuses on investigating spatial variation of ground motion that has great influence on the dynamic behavior of the large structures located on the surface topography. One of the most effective parameters on the spatial variation of ground motion is the difference between the arrival time of seismic waves in different points located on the abutments. In this research, a three-dimensional model of the Pacoima Dam site is prepared. The time domain 3 D boundary element method is used to apply non-uniform excitation at the dam supports. This model is subjected to vertically propagating incident SH and P waves. The time delay can be characterized by calculating the value of the time delay for which the cross-correlation between two records is maximized. Finally, to obtain the time delay in a topographic site, a function considering effective parameters such as the height from the canyon base, wave velocity and predominant frequency, is presented. Furthermore, a code was developed for generating the spatially variation of seismic ground motions. The results show that the proposed functions have an acceptable accuracy in estimating the time delay to generate non-uniform ground motion.     

Regional scale rainfall–runoff modeling using VARX–MGARCH approach

Multivariate time series modeling approaches are known as useful tools for describing, simulating, and forecasting hydrologic variables as well as their changes over the time. These approaches also have temporal and cross-sectional spatial dependence in multiple measurements. Although the application of multivariate linear and nonlinear time series approaches such as vector autoregressive with eXogenous variables (VARX) and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) models are commonly used in financial and economic sciences, these approaches have not been extensively used in hydrology and water resources engineering. This study employed VARX and VARX–MGARCH approaches in modeling mean and conditional heteroscedasticity of daily rainfall and runoff records in the basin of Zarrineh Rood Dam, Iran. Bivariate diagonal VECH (DVECH) model, as a main type of MGARCH, shows how the conditional variance–covariance and conditional correlation structure vary over the time between residuals series of the fitted VARX. For this purpose, five model fits, which consider different combinations of twofold rainfall and runoff, including both upstream and downstream stations, have been investigated in the present study. The VARX model, with different orders, was applied to the daily rainfall–runoff process of the study area in each of these model fits. The Portmanteau test revealed the existence of conditional heteroscedasticity in the twofold residuals of fitted VARX models. Therefore, the VARX–DVECH model is proposed to capture the heteroscedasticity existing in the daily rainfall–runoff process. The bivariate DVECH model indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance–covariance matrix related to the twofold innovations of rainfall–runoff processes. Furthermore, the evaluation criteria for the VARX–DVECH model revealed the improvement of VARX model performance.     

Nonlinear modeling of cyclic response of RC beam–column joints reinforced by plain bars

Experience of previous earthquakes shows that a considerable portion of buildings reinforced with plain bars sustain relatively large damages especially at the beam–column joints where the damages are mostly caused by either diagonal shear cracks or intersectional cracks caused by bar slippage. While previous works mainly focus on shear failure mode, in this study, the emphasis is placed on slip based cracks as the dominant failure mode. A systematic procedure is introduced to predict the dominant failure mode at the joint which is based on the dimensional properties, reinforcement details, and axial and shear load at the joint. In addition, a relatively simple and efficient nonlinear model is proposed to simulate pre- and post-elastic behavior of the joints which fail under bar slippage mode. In this model, beam and column components are represented by linear elastic elements, dimensions of the joint panel are defined by rigid elements, and effect of slip is taken into account by a nonlinear rotational spring at the end of the beam. The proposed method is validated by experimental results for both internal and external joints .     

New magnitude scaling relations for earthquake early warning in the Alborz region,Iran

Rapid magnitude estimation relations for earthquake early warning systems in the Alborz region have been developed based on the initial first seconds of the P-wave arrival. For this purpose, a total of 717 accelerograms recorded by the Building and Housing Research Center in the Alborz region with the magnitude (M_w) range of 4.8–6.5 in the period between 1995 and 2013 were employed. Average ground motion period (\( \tau_{\text{c}} \)) and peak displacement (\( P_{\text{d}} \)) in different time windows from the P-wave arrival were calculated, and their relation with magnitude was examined. Four earthquakes that were excluded from the analysis process were used to validate the results, and the estimated magnitudes were found to be in good agreement with the observed ones. The results show that using the proposed relations for the Alborz region, earthquake magnitude could be estimated with acceptable accuracy even after 1 s of the P-wave arrival.