一个考虑SST变化的月数值预报结果分析

根据陈隆勋等对海温月季变化研究的结果提出除了从冬到春的过渡月份外,ＳＳＴ距平的相邻月的月际变化不大。在此基础上,选了１９９６年６月并利用ＣＣＭ１动力气候模式作了月数值预报。在预报中,利用１９９６年６月１日００Ｚ中国国家气象中心Ｔ６４的客观分析资料作初值,利用１９９６年５月的ＳＳＴ距平加到６月气候ＳＳＴ作为６月的ＳＳＴ,作了一个月数值预报。结果表明,考虑了ＳＳＴ变化的数值预报优于用气候海温作的数值预报。前者的５００ｈＰａ高度场预报距平、８５０ｈＰａ纬向风预报距平、中国地区气温预报距平和降水预报距平分布均十分接近于实际观测分布。     

Dynamic Behaviour of a Caisson Quaywall Under Strong Earthquake

—Effective stress analysis is performed to evaluate the residual displacement of a caissonquaywall during 1994 Hokkaido-Toho-Oki Earthquake and 1993 Kushiro-Oki Earthquake.Theconstitutive model used in this study is a multiple shear mechanism type defined in strain space and cantake into account the effect of rotation of principal stress axis.The earthquake accelerations recorded atthe outcropping rock during the earthquake are used as input bedrock motion.The results of finite ele-ment analysis are in good agreement with the observed behaviour of the quaywall.The analysis also indi-cates that liquefaction and high excess pore water pressure have a significant effect on the deformation ofthe caisson.Soil improvement is speculated as the most reliable measures against liquefaction.The influ-ence of soil improvement and the reasonable improved area are discussed in the paper.     

A Probabilistic Model for Fatigue Crack Propagation Analysis

A simple probabilistic model for predicting crack growth behavior under random loading is pre-sented.In the model,the parameters c and m in the Paris-Erdogan Equation are taken as random variables,and their stochastic characteristic values are obtained through fatigue crack propagation tests on an offshorestructural steel under constant amplitude loading.Furthermore,by using the Monte Carlo simulation tech-nique,the fatigue crack propagation life to reach a given crack length is predicted.The tests are conducted toverify the applicability of the theoretical prediction of the fatigue crack propagation.     

Mechanics of a Grip System of Three-Key-Board Hydraulic Tongs Developed for Offshore Oil Pipe Lines

-This paper carries out the analysis of mechanics of a grip system of three-key-board hydraulictongs developed for offshore oil pipe lines which has been successfully used in oil fields in China.The mainimprovement of this system is that a lever frame structure is used in the structural design,which reducesgreatly the stresses of the major components of the oil pipe tongs.Theoretical analysis and numerical calcu-lation based on thirteen basic equations developed show that the teeth board of the tongs is not easy to slipas frequently happens to other systems and is of higher reliability.     

一种有效追踪油气运移轨迹的新方法--断面优势运移通道的提出及其应用

作为油气运移的重要通道,断裂的不同部位对油气的输导能力具有很强的不均一性,从而造成沿油源断裂分布的油气圈闭具有明显的油气差异聚集结果。断而优势运移通道的提出改变了以往人们认为开启的断裂都是油气运移通道的错误观念,强调只有沿着断面优势运移通道寻找勘探目标,才可能发现油气藏。本文通过分析断裂带输导能力的不均一性,提出断而优势运移通道概念及其油气汇聚运移原理,断面优势运移通道分析步骤和方法,并以柴达木盆地北缘儿条主要的控油气断裂为例,分析了不同部他油气运移的优势运移通道并对其附近的油气圈闭含油气性进行了评价,结果与勘探成果相符。     

Diagenesis and Restructuring Mechanism of Oil and Gas Reservoir in the Marine Carbonate Formation,Northeastern Sichuan:A Case Study of the Puguang Gas Reservoir

Abstract: Based on the technology of balanced cross-section and physical simulation experiments associated with natural gas geochemical characteristic analyses, core and thin section observations, it has been proven that the Puguang gas reservoir has experienced two periods of diagenesis and restructuring since the Late Indo-Chinese epoch. One is the fluid transfer controlled by the tectonic movement and the other is geochemical reconstruction controlled by thermochemical sulfate reduction (TSR). The middle Yanshan epoch was the main period that the Puguang gas reservoir experienced the geochemical reaction of TSR. TSR can recreate the fluid in the gas reservoir, which makes the gas drying index higher and carbon isotope heavier because C2+ (ethane and heavy hydrocarbon) and 12C (carbon 12 isotope) is first consumed relative to CH4 and 13C? (carbon 13 isotope). However, the reciprocity between fluid regarding TSR (hydrocarbon, sulfureted hydrogen (H2S)?, and water) and reservoir rock results in reservoir rock erosion and anhydrite alteration, which increases porosity in reservoir, thereby improving the petrophysical properties. Superimposed by later tectonic movement, the fluid in Puguang reservoir has twice experienced adjustment, one in the late Yanshan epoch to the early Himalayan epoch and the other time in late Himalayan epoch, after which Puguang gas reservoir is finally developed.     

青藏高原那曲地区雷电特征初步分析

通过对2002年夏季青藏高原那曲地区雷暴过程及闪电观测资料的初步分析,发现该地区雷暴电荷结构具有多样性和复杂性,地闪明显偏少. 对高原地闪的一些基本特征参量的统计分析表明,无论正地闪还是负地闪梯级先导前都具有持续时间较长的云内放电过程,地闪以单次回击为主. 与中低纬度地区相比,高原地闪中正地闪比例明显要高,为33髎;负地闪为67髎;正、负地闪回击后常常伴随短时间的连续电流.     

北京地区Pi2脉动和地磁AE指数的关系

分析了北京地区1998年1月1日至3月26日和4月24日至6月13日共136天记录的Pi2脉动事件特性,并与同时期亚暴AE指数进行了对比.结果发现,在北京地区越靠近日侧,观测到的Pi2脉动事件越少,幅度也越小.并不是每次亚暴都能激发空腔振荡模,亚暴强度的增加也并不代表空腔振荡模产生概率的增加.随着亚暴AE指数的增大,Pi2脉动的平均幅度基本上也在增大.但也有例外,可能是由于北京观测地点距离亚暴电流楔位置较远造成的.北京地区的Pi2脉动可以发生于亚暴的整个过程中,从AE指数开始增长期间（亚暴增长相）,一直到亚暴AE指数恢复正常（亚暴膨胀相后期）.某些亚暴没有对应着Pi2脉动事件,其AE指数从小于200nT一直到800nT以上.从观测数据来看,北京地区虽然纬度分区在低纬区域,但其Pi2脉动的特性与中纬Pi2特性更为靠近.所以不宜用北京地区Pi2来预报亚暴,以避免误报和漏报.     

青藏高原闪电活动的时空分布特征

利用卫星上携带的闪电探测仪所获取的8年闪电资料(1995～2002)对青藏高原闪电活动的时空分布以及高原季风期间闪电活动对地面热力学特征的响应进行了研究.结果表明,高原上的平均闪电密度为3fl·a-1·km-2,并在高原中部（32°N, 88°E）出现闪电密度峰值5.1fl·a-1·km-2.闪电活动主要发生在6～8月,并在6月下旬至7月中旬最为活跃.大部分地区的闪电活动日变化峰值出现在14:00～16:00 LT,在中西部的显著高山地区早于这一时刻,而在显著低海拔的塔里木和柴达木盆地晚于这一时刻.夏季季风期间高原上的闪电活动明显依赖于地表的热力学特征,并与地表鲍恩比和感热通量呈明显的线性正相关,相关系数分别为0.7和0.6,鲍恩比有可能作为调整闪电产生效率的量度.     

共反射元弧叠加方法在火山岩成像中的应用

常规叠加方法假设叠加的地震道集的反射波来自地下同一个反射点,而地表观测到 的反射波场在空间上小于菲涅尔体范围是不可分辨的. 本文根据火山岩体特征,用元弧描述 火山岩的反射界面. 将来自菲涅尔体范围内的反射波沿着元弧界面求和,进而扩大叠加次数 ,达到增加反射信号能量提高地震反射波的叠加成像质量的目的. 文中给出了反射波走时参 数与地下元弧反射界面之间的联系和叠加实现的步骤. 计算结果表明,元弧叠加方法能够提 高剖面的信噪比,增加反射波同相轴的连续性.