Regional daily baseflow prediction

The purposes of this study are to identify the bias of applying the analysis of a log–log plot of baseflow and to derive an equation to describe successive regional mean baseflow. The function ?dQ/dt = a Q^b has been used to describe baseflow in many studies that obtain the values of a and b from the log–log plot. According to analysis in this study, the value of 1 can be assigned to b in two boundary conditions, but the parameter a is proved to be related to the depth of water table and starting time of recession and thus different values of a may be found for different recession events. This paper points out that no single regression line can be obtained by plotting all baseflow data on a log–log diagram. Instead, there should be parallel lines, and each for a recession event. It implies that no single set of parameters a and b can be applied to predict baseflow. Thus, a new equation describing the relationship between three successive mean baseflows was derived in this study. The bias in the analysis of the log–log plot and the ability of the derived equation to predict baseflow were verified for five watersheds in Taiwan. Results indicate that the formula of mean baseflow prediction can provide reasonable estimates of flows with a leading time of 6 days. Furthermore, stream flows of the Tonkawa creek watershed in USA were used to verify that using average flows can result in better predictions than using instantaneous flows. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) in monitoring slope movements in Nainital,Uttarakhand Lesser Himalaya,India

Orogenic movements and sub-tropical climate have rendered the slopes of the Himalayan region intensely deformed and weathered. As a result, the incidences of slope failure are quite common all along the Himalayan region. The Lesser Himalayan terrane is particularly vulnerable to mass-movements owing to geological fragility, and many parts of it are bearing a high-risk of associated disaster owing to the high population density. An important step towards mitigation of such disasters is the monitoring of slope movement. Towards this, the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) technique can be applied. In the present study, the PSI technique is employed in Lesser Himalayan town of Nainital in Uttarakhand state of India to decipher and monitor slope movements. A total of 15 multi-date ENVISAT ASAR satellite images, acquired during August 2008 to August 2010 period, were subjected to PSI, which revealed a continuous creep movement along the hillslopes located towards the eastern side of the Nainital lake. The higher reaches of the hill seem to be experiencing accelerated creep of \({\sim }21\) mm/year, which decreases downslope to \({\sim }5\) mm/year. Based on spatial pattern of varying PSI Mean LOS Velocity (MLV) values, high (H), moderate (M), low (L) and very low (S) creeping zones have been delineated in the hillslopes. Given the long history of mass movements and continuously increasing anthropogenic activities in Nainital, these results call for immediate measures to avert any future disaster in the town.     

Using multiple‐variable indicator kriging to assess groundwater quality for irrigation in the aquifers of the Choushui River alluvial fan

This work attempted to locate clean and safe groundwater for irrigation use in the Choushui River alluvial fan. Multiple‐variable indicator kriging (MVIK) was adopted to evaluate numerous hydrochemical parameters for a standard of water quality for irrigation in Taiwan. Many hydrochemical parameters in groundwater were distinguished into three main categories—salinity/sodium hazard, nitrogen hazard and heavy metal hazard. Safe and potential hazardous regions of groundwater for irrigation were delineated according to different probabilities estimated by MVIK. The probabilistic results of the classifications gave an opportunity to explore the spatial uncertainty of the hazards and helped government administrators establish a sound policy associated with the development and management of groundwater resources. Analysis of the results indicate that the central distal‐fan and mid‐fan aquifers are the best places to extract clean and safe groundwater for irrigation, and the deep aquifer (exceeding 200 m depth) has wider regions with clean and safe groundwater for irrigation than shallow aquifers. The northern and southern aquifers, with multiple hazards, limit groundwater use for irrigation. Although the proximal‐fan aquifer is a zone of groundwater recharge, the high nitrogen content seriously affects the environment and is not suitable for irrigation use. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Global distribution of thermospheric heat sources: EUV absorption and joule dissipation

The global distribution and temporal variations of thermospheric heating due to Joule dissipation of measured ionospheric electric fields are computed. It is shown that the volume Joule dissipation rate at high and middle latitude is similar in magnitude and altitudinal profile to the global solar EUV absorption rate discussed in the previous papers. Thus, Joule dissipation contributes significantly towards reconciling the quantitatively known sources of thermospheric heat input and that required to maintain the normal thermosphere. The combined heat source due to EUV absorption and Joule dissipation varies with the annual cycle in a manner closely resembling that of the thermospheric density.     

Initial moduli of particulated mass with frictional contacts

The stiffness characteristics of a packing of granules are influenced by the particle interactions at contacts, the void ratio, the co-ordination number and the packing structure. A stress-strain relationship for the packings of spheres is presented. The relationship explicitly includes the contact force-displacement law and the parameters characterizing the packing structure. The initial moduli computed using this relationship are compared with experimental measurements and empirical equations for sands. The theoretical results are also compared with experimental results on packings of glass balls. Closed-form solutions are derived for statistically isotropic packings under initial isotropic stress conditions. Numerical solutions for the stiffness properties are obtained for anisotropic initial stress conditions and anisotropic packing structures.     

Atmospheric density from the low altitude satellite 1970-48A: Comparison of orbital decay measurements,accelerometer measurements and atmospheric models

Atmospheric densities have been deduced from high resolution radar-determined orbital decay data and from data obtained from a uniaxial accelerometer flown onboard the low altitude satellite 1970-48A. Data were obtained during late June and early July, 1970. The orbital decay-deduced densities, having an effective 6 hr temporal resolution, were determined at an altitude of 143 km, essentially one-half scale height above perigee. The accelerometer deduced densities at the same altitude were obtained on both the approaching-perigee and leaving-perigee portions of each of fifty-nine orbits. A detailed comparison of the densities derived from both types of data is presented. In general, agreement is very good. A comparison of both types of data has also been made with the Jacchia 1970 and 1971 atmospheric models as well as the new OGO-6 atmospheric model. The Jacchia models display reasonable agreement with the data, but the OGO-6 model is unsuitable as a representation of atmospheric density at this altitude.     

Large-scale environmental controls on the seasonal statistics of rapidly intensifying North Atlantic tropical cyclones

This study is concerned with the connections between the large-scale environment and the seasonal occurrence of rapid intensification (RI) of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. Physically-motivated statistical analysis using observations and reanalysis products suggests that for tropical cyclones over the open tropical North Atlantic, the interannual variability of the probability of storms undergoing RI is influenced by seasonal large-scale atmospheric and oceanic variables, but not so for storms over the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean Sea. We suggest that this differentiated response is due to the former region exhibiting a strong negative correlation between the seasonal anomalies of vertical wind shear and potential intensity. Differences in the mean climatology and subseasonal variations of the large-scale environment in these regions appear to play an insignificant role in the distinctive seasonal environmental controls on RI. We suggest that the interannual correlation of vertical wind shear and potential intensity is an indicator of seasonal predictability of tropical cyclone activity (including RI) across the tropics .     

Atmospheric density at 169 km from accelerometer measurements and orbital decay of a low altitude satellite

Atmospheric densities at 169 km have been obtained for the period 19 August–3 September 1970 from the measurements of an accelerometer on a low altitude satellite and from the orbital decay of the same satellite. Three different sets of local time and latitude conditions were provided by the data; two from the accelerometer measurements, before and after perigee, and one at perigee, from the orbital decay data. Under the generally quiet magnetic activity conditions that prevailed during the data-taking period, the short term density fluctuations were found to be poorly correlated with the small K_p variations. However, on the greater time scale of a day, a definite relationship was found between the daily average density and the daily geomagnetic index A_p. Further, the increase in the density corresponding to A_p was largest at the highest latitude. The high latitude accelerometer data exhibited a quasi-daily periodicity, with maximum densities occurring when the satellite was within the dayside cusp. This effect also appeared to depend on the degree of auroral electrojet activity as defined by the AE index. Comparisons of the data with the Jacchia?70 and ?71 models indicated that these models may give density values which are too small for the conditions and time period corresponding to the data.     

Glacially derived material in an Inner Mongolian desert lake during Marine Isotope Stage 2

Establishing the precise timing of continental glacial dynamics and abrupt high‐latitude climate events is crucial to understanding the causes of global climate change. Here we present multi‐proxy records in a lake sediment core from arid Inner Mongolia (Wuliangsuhai Lake) that show two distinct glacially derived sedimentation events at ～26.2–21.8 and ～17.3–11.5k cal a BP. Fine sediments from the Last Glacial Maximum separate these glacially derived coarse sediments. Within these intervals, the occurrence of granite clasts at ～24–23.5, 17.3–17 and 15.6–14.1k cal a BP implies either sediment discharge by meltwater as well as strong current flow in the Yellow River and/or sediment influx through hill‐slope mass wasting and landsliding from the nearby Yin Mountains. Surface microfeatures of quartz grains and spot elemental analysis of black specks in these intervals, however, indicate that physical weathering is dominant and that the provenance of the rocks is probably from a glacial source. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time glacier‐derived materials have been detected in any desert lake in the Yellow River basin. The occurrence of granite clasts roughly correlates with Heinrich events in the North Atlantic, suggesting synchronous ice sheet dynamics in high‐ and mid‐latitude regions during the Last Glacial period. Although our data provide unprecedented evidence for the influence of glacier‐related processes in arid Inner Mongolia, further well‐dated records are clearly needed to re‐evaluate the correlative inference drawn between granite clast layers in Wuliangsuhai Lake and Heinrich events in the North Atlantic. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Tracking rapidly changing dynamical systems using a non‐parametric statistical method based on wavelets

A non‐parametric statistical method of tracking rapidly changing dynamical systems is introduced. The method implements the non‐linear wavelet thresholding estimator to estimate the evolutionary transfer function of the system. The consistency and optimality of the resulting estimate of our method on rapidly changing systems are stated, while no linear estimator can achieve the same optimality. Two examples of real data are studied using this non‐parametric method, including two vertical seismic array case studies and a series of seismic slope experiments. The analysis results are consistent with previous research for the vertical seismic array data. Moreover, our estimate is superior to those from previous research in the sense that our estimate is neither over‐smoothed nor under‐smoothed. The ana‐ lysis results are also consistent with the experimental observations for the seismic slope experimental data. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.