Eruptive versus non-eruptive behaviour of large calderas: the example of Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy)

Caldera eruptions are among the most hazardous of natural phenomena. Many calderas around the world are active and are characterised by recurrent uplift and subsidence periods due to the dynamics of their magma reservoirs. These periods of unrest are, in some cases, accompanied by eruptions. At Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc), which is an area characterised by very high volcanic risk, the recurrence of this behaviour has stimulated the study of the rock rheology around the magma chamber, in order to estimate the likelihood of an eruption. This study considers different scenarios of shallow crustal behaviour, taking into account the earlier models of CFc ground deformation and caldera eruptions, and including recent geophysical investigations of the area. A semi-quantitative evaluation of the different factors that lead to magma storage or to its eruption (such as magma chamber size, wall-rock viscosity, temperature, and regional tectonic strain rate) is reported here for elastic and viscoelastic conditions. Considering the large magmatic sources of the CFc ignimbrite eruptions (400–2,000 km³) and a wall-rock viscosity between 10¹⁸ and 10²⁰ Pa s, the conditions for eruptive failure are difficult to attain. Smaller source dimensions (a few cubic kilometres) promote the condition for fracture (eruption) rather than for the flow of wall rock. We also analyse the influence of the regional extensional stress regime on magma storage and eruptions, and the thermal stress as a possible source of caldera uplift. The present study also emphasises the difficulty of distinguishing eruption and non-eruption scenarios at CFc, since an unambiguous model that accounts for the rock rheology, magma-source dimensions and locations and regional stress field influences is still lacking.     

The Kozai resonance in the outer solar system and the dynamics of long-period comets

We consider the secular evolution of the orbits of bodies in the Outer Solar System under the perturbations of the jovian planets assumed on coplanar and circular orbits. Through the approach used for asteroidal belt by Yoshihide Kozai in 1962, we obtain that the Kozai resonance do not affect the behavior of bodies belonging to the Kuiper belt but concerns the long-timescale evolution of long-period comets. In particular this resonance appears as a process contributing to produce Sun-grazer comets.     

Quantitative risk assessment of slope hazards along a section of railway in the Canadian Cordillera—a methodology considering the uncertainty in the results

Railway alignments through the Canadian Cordillera are constantly exposed to slope instabilities. Proactive mitigation strategies have been in place for a few decades now, and instability record keeping has been recognized as an important aspect of them. Such a proactive strategy has enhanced the industry’s capacity to manage slope risks, and some sections have been recognized as critical due to the frequency of instabilities. At these locations, quantification of the risks becomes necessary. Risk analysis requires knowledge of some variables for which statistical data are scarce or not available, and elicitation of subjective probabilities is needed. A limitation of such approaches lies in the uncertainty associated to those elicited probabilities. In this paper, a quantitative risk analysis is presented for a section of railway across the Canadian Cordillera. The analysis focused on the risk to life of the freight train crews working along this section. Upper and lower bounds were elicited to cope with the uncertainties associated with this approach. A Monte Carlo simulation technique was then applied to obtain the probability distribution of the estimated risks. The risk probability distribution suggests that the risk to life of the crews is below previously published evaluation criteria and within acceptable levels. The risk assessment approach proposed focuses on providing a measure of the uncertainty associated with the estimated risk and is capable of handling distributions that cover more than two orders of magnitude.     

Spatial and temporal heterogeneity of Lake Lugano sediment composition

The concentrations of eighteen elements (Al, C, Ca, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, N, Ni, P, Pb, S, Si, Ti, and Zn) in 76 sediment samples collected in Lake Lugano in 1973 and in 83 samples collected in 1985 were measured and used to draw distribution maps. The chemical compositions of sediments from the three lake subbasins were statistically compared, and used to describe the state of the lake at two time-points twelve years apart. The results obtained seem to be consistent with the available information about the recent evolution of Lake Lugano; both phosphorus and nitrogen are statistically higher in the 1985 samples than in those of 1973, confirming the reported tendency of the lake to evolve towards higher trophic conditions in this period of time. For both metals and mobile elements, the differences between the two sampling years and the literature data reflect fluctuations in the normal geochemical supply from the catchment basin, rather than significant contamination phenomena. However, elements like Ni, Cr, Zn, Pb and Cu tend to be more abundant in the most recent layers of the sediments, so further studies are needed to assess whether potentially hazardous conditions will evolve in the future.The work was performed at the EEC — Environment Institute, Joint Research Centre, I-21020 Ispra (Varese) Italy     

On the dynamics in the asteroids belt. Part I : General theory

The classical problem of the dynamics in the asteroids belt is revisited in the light of recently developed perturbation methods. We consider the spatial problem of three bodies both in the circular and in the elliptic case, looking for families of periodic or quasi periodic orbits. Some criteria for deciding the stability of these families are also indicated.     

Sterols as markers of sewage contamination in a tropical urban estuary (Guanabara Bay, Brazil): space–time variations

Guanabara Bay, located adjacent to Rio de Janeiro in Brazil, is highly contaminated by substances derived from domestic and industrial effluents as well as from agricultural runoff. In the present work, sedimentary coprostanol and other faecal sterols were used to investigate historical trends in sewage contamination. Sediment cores were collected from eight different (and characterized) locations in the bay and were sectioned into dated segments. Organic carbon was determined by dry combustion and sterols were separated and quantified by GC/MS. The space-distribution of organic carbon and faecal sterol concentrations generally coincided with the presence of known pollution sources. Concentrations of coprostanol as high as 40 μg g⁻¹ were found, indicating areas of severe sewage contamination. Faecal sterol ratios, commonly used as tools to investigate contamination in temperate environments, however, were found to have limited applicability to this tropical estuarine system, probably due to the influence of intensive primary production and microbial processes.     

Evaluation of wave model performance in the South Atlantic Ocean: a study about physical parameterization and wind forcing calibration

Ocean Dynamics - This paper evaluates the performance of the spectral wave model WAVEWATCH III for the South Atlantic Ocean forced by wind inputs from the most recent reanalyses, NCEP/CFSR and...     

Far UV radiation transfer and H2CO lifetime in dense interstellar clouds

The UV radiation transfer within spherical interstellar dust clouds is analyzed using the method of successive scatterings. The results are used to determine the lifetime of interstellar H₂CO against photo-destruction. The effectiveness of this process is compared with those of chemical mechanisms.     

Do small marinas drive habitat specific impacts? A case study from Mediterranean Sea

Many human activities add new structures to the marine landscape. Despite the fact that human structures cause some inevitable impacts, surprisingly little information exists on the effects of marina on natural marine assemblages. The aim of this paper is to assess habitat-specific response of benthic sessile organisms of rocky shores in relation to the presence of a small marina. Sampling was carried out at three coastal habitats (midshore, lowshore and subtidal) by means of visual censuses adopting an after-control-impact (ACI) experimental design. It appears that the marina affects the structure and composition of benthic communities of both the midshore and the lowshore. Little effect was evident on shallow subtidal assemblage structure. The results of the present study clearly show habitat-specific responses of coastal benthic assemblages to the presence of infrastructure.