近代回归分析在交通调查分析建模中的应用

本文以出行发生量模型的建立为例,较为系统地讨论了近代回归分析中的自变量选择及回归诊断方法在交通调查分析建模中的应用。分析了在获取调查数据后,如何借助回归自变量选择方法来选择最佳自变量子集,以确定简捷的回归模型;文中应用回归诊断方法,讨论了修正回归模型、探测错误的调查数据的方法,从而为建立简捷、高精度的交通模型打下了基础。最后,作者提出了应用自变量选择及回归诊断方法建立出行发行量模型的一般步骤。     

CHANGE OF CLIMATE AND ITS INFLUENCE ON THE CROPPING SYSTEM IN CHINA

Tne global change of climate and its influence on the cropping system in China have been investigatedin this paper.It is found that the temperature was increased during the last decade and the precipitationdecreased in northern China and increased in southern China during the last 30 years.The sea level hasbeen rising by about 21—26 cm in the coastal areas south of 30°N in China during the last 100 years.The most of results as simulated by the general circulation models(GCMs)show that the temperature increasewould amount to about 2°—4°C in the most parts of China and precipitation and soil moisture might bedecreased in northern China and increased in sourthern China due to doubling of carbon dioxide(CO_2).The effects of doubled CO_2 on growth period and climatic yield capability in China have been estimatedroughly.It is shown that the regions of the growth period in China would be moved northward about fivedegrees latitude and the climatic yield capability might be increased by about 10％ in the most parts of China.     

Petrochemistry,Age and Petrogenesis of the Shexian Pluton in Southern Anhui

The Shexian gneissic granodiorite in southern Anhui trends NE 55° from Shexian in the west to Guitoujian in the east with a length of 22 km and an outcrop area of 32 km. It was considered formerly to be Caledonian on the basis of a biotite K-Ar age of 474 Ma (1982). However, new evidence indicates that it may be Early Jinning in age as shown by: (1) it is found intruding into the Mid-Proterozoic Shangxi Group and is unconformably overlain by the Sinian Xiuning Formation, and (2) a zircon U-Th-Pb age of 928 Ma is obtained for the pluton. The pluton is composed of plagioclase (An=27.37%), K-feldspar(14%), biotite(16%) and quartz(32%). Accessory minerals are ilmenite (150g/T), xenotime (15g/T). garnet(25g/T), monazite(10g/T), zircon (20g/T) and apatite (104g/T). Petrochemical characteristics of the intrusion are:(l) Al-enrichment (A/NKC=1.30); (2) H₂O enrichment (H₂O= 1.74%); and (3) low oxidation index (f ’=0.10). It belongs to the continental crust transformation type as evidenced by: (1) MF and Mg/Y values of biotite are 0.41 and 0.31 respectively; (2) (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr)=0.71119; (3) δ Eu=0.52; and (4) A/NKC=130. The Shexian pluton is therefore considered as a product of melting of phyllite at depth in the light of similarities in trace element and REE contents with the phyllite of the Banxi Group. Calculations of REE batch partial melting indicate that it may have resulted from 75% melting of the Banxi phyllite.     

亚欧500hPa旬平均形势预报的改进及检验

利用数值预报产品，对原亚欧５００ｈＰａ旬平均形势预报方程作了改进。除对空间和时间尺度上作了改进外，在预报因子的选择上，由亚欧地区的单点相关，扩张至整个北半球的相关；并根据长波天气系统的气候地理分布和遥相关分析等方法，选择关键区作为候选因子，组建了新的形势预报方程。经检验比较，新的形势预报方程高度距平正确和长波系统位置正确率分别提高了０．１５－０．２０和０．１０。     

浙江杭嘉湖平原区土壤中营养元素丰缺状况的评价

根据杭嘉湖平原区区域地球化学调查的结果,对本区土壤中农作物营养元素含量及有效量特征进行了评价研究。研究结果表明,本区土壤中营养元素除Mo、S含量表现缺乏外,其它元素为足量和丰富水平。不同土壤中营养元素有效量水平存在明显差异。在区域分布规律上,营养元素的含量及有效量随成土母质、成土过程和人类耕作等因素的不同而显示其差异特征。评价研究结果为本区农业生产中的合理区划、科学施肥、合理种植、土壤改良等提供了重要的地球化学依据。     

用石灰桩加固软弱地基

石灰桩作为一种技术可靠、经济快速的软弱地基加固方法已得到了广泛应用。本文介绍了武汉岩土力学研究所近一年来利用石灰桩处理软弱地基的成功经验。现场检测表明，对于单层和多层工业与民用建筑而言，采用石灰桩可以使软弱地基获得良好加固且满足设计要求。文中还对石灰桩的加固机理进行了简要分析。     

The abnormal periods of climate in china over the past 5000 years and their causes

This paper points out that (1) there were 5 abnormal periods of climate in China over the last 1000 years, in which the frequency, the severity and the influenced area of such calamities as low temperature, drought and flood increased greatly; (2) there were 3 or 4 worse periods of climate over the past 5000 years which were more severe than the above-mentioned climate; (3) the momental effect of the geocentric synods of nine plan-ets is one of the important causes for the formation of the abnormal and worse periods of climate; and (4) from the 1960s to about 2000 A.D. China and the entire Northern Hemisphere would probably undergo another ab-normal period of climate.     

江西某地钨、碲、铋石英脉型矿床地质及碲的赋存状态

碲是很有价值的分散元素,在国外已得到了广泛的应用.碲主要应用在钢铁工业上,其次才是有色金属工业和化工上.过去,认为碲的主要矿床是超基性岩铜镍矿床和火山岩中的块状硫化矿床,而对钨、铋石英脉中含碲则了解甚少.经过研究,认为钨、铋石英脉型矿床中碲的品位高、碲呈独立矿物存在,规模可达大中型,是独立的钨、碲、铋矿床.