Cosmological systematics beyond nuisance parameters: form-filling functions

In the absence of any compelling physical model, cosmological systematics are often misrepresented as statistical effects and the approach of marginalizing over extra nuisance systematic parameters is used to gauge the effect of the systematic. In this article, we argue that such an approach is risky at best since the key choice of function can have a large effect on the resultant cosmological errors.
As an alternative we present a functional form-filling technique in which an unknown, residual, systematic is treated as such. Since the underlying function is unknown, we evaluate the effect of every functional form allowed by the information available (either a hard boundary or some data). Using a simple toy model, we introduce the formalism of functional form filling. We show that parameter errors can be dramatically affected by the choice of function in the case of marginalizing over a systematic, but that in contrast the functional form-filling approach is independent of the choice of basis set.
We then apply the technique to cosmic shear shape measurement systematics and show that a shear calibration bias of  | m ( z )| ≲ 10⁻³ (1 + z )^0.7  is required for a future all-sky photometric survey to yield unbiased cosmological parameter constraints to per cent accuracy.
A module associated with the work in this paper is available through the open source icosmo code available at http://www.icosmo.org .     

Perpendicular Transport in the Inner Heliosphere: A Quick and Dirty Approach

In previous studies, transport of solar energetic particles in the inner heliosphere was regarded as one-dimensional along the Archimedean field spiral; i.e., any perpendicular transport is neglected. We extend Roelof’s equation of focused transport for solar energetic particles to accommodate perpendicular transport in the plane of the ecliptic. Numerically, this additional term is solved with an implicit Laasonen scheme. In this first approximation, it is solved for azimuthal instead of perpendicular transport – these are similar in the inner heliosphere where the Archimedean field is almost radial. The intent of the study is to estimate the possible influence of perpendicular transport, but not to fit energetic particle events; thus, the particle source stays fixed on the Sun. For typical ratios κ _⊥ /κ _‖ between 0.02 and 0.1 at 1 AU scaled with r ² as suggested in nonlinear guiding-center theory, we find that i) an azimuthal spread over some 10° occurs within a few hours, ii) the variation of maximum intensities with longitude is comparable to the ones inferred from multispacecraft observations, and iii) on a given field line, intensity and anisotropy-time profiles are modified such that fits with the two-dimensional transport model give different combinations of injection profiles and mean free paths. Implications for the interpretation of intensity and anisotropy-time profiles observed in interplanetary space and consequences for our understanding of particle propagation and acceleration in space are discussed.     

A Full-Sun Magnetic Index from Helioseismology Inferences

Solar magnetic indices are used to model the solar irradiance and ultimately to forecast it. However, the observation of such indices is generally limited to the Earth-facing hemisphere of the Sun. Seismic maps of the far side of the Sun have proven their capability to locate and track medium–large active regions at the non-visible hemisphere. We present here the possibility of using the average signal from these seismic far-side maps, combined with similarly calculated near-side maps, as a proxy to the full-Sun magnetic activity.     

Amazonian northern mid-latitude glaciation on Mars: A proposed climate scenario

Recent geological observations in the northern mid-latitudes of Mars show evidence for past glacial activity during the late Amazonian, similar to the integrated glacial landsystems in the Dry Valleys of Antarctica. The large accumulation of ice (many hundreds of meters) required to create the observed glacial deposits points to significant atmospheric precipitation, snow and ice accumulation, and glacial flow. In order to understand the climate scenario required for these conditions, we used the LMD (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique) Mars GCM (General Circulation Model), which is able to reproduce the present-day water cycle, and to predict past deposition of ice consistent with geological observations in many cases. Prior to this analysis, however, significant mid-latitude glaciation had not been simulated by the model, run under a range of parameters.In this analysis, we studied the response of the GCM to a wider range of orbital configurations and water ice reservoirs, and show that during periods of moderate obliquity (? = 25-35°) and high dust opacity (τ_dust = 1.5-2.5), broad-scale glaciation in the northern mid-latitudes occurs if water ice deposited on the flanks of the Tharsis volcanoes at higher obliquity is available for sublimation. We find that high dust contents of the atmosphere increase its water vapor holding capacity, thereby moving the saturation region to the northern mid-latitudes. Precipitation events are then controlled by topographic forcing of stationary planetary waves and transient weather systems, producing surface ice distribution and amounts that are consistent with the geological record. Ice accumulation rates of ∼10 mm yr⁻¹ lead to the formation of a 500-1000 m thick regional ice sheet that will produce glacial flow patterns consistent with the geological observations.     

First observation of CO at 345 GHz in the atmosphere of Saturn with the JCMT: New constraints on its origin

We have performed the first observation of the CO(3-2) spectral line in the atmosphere of Saturn with the James Clerk Maxwell Telescope. We have used a transport model of the atmosphere of Saturn to constrain the origin of the observed CO. The CO line is best-fit when the CO is located at pressures less than (15±2) mbar with a mixing ratio of (2.5±0.6)×10^-8 implying an external origin. By modeling the transport in Saturn’s atmosphere, we find that a cometary impact origin with an impact 200-350 years ago is more likely than continuous deposition by interplanetary dust particles (IDP) or local sources (rings/satellites). This result would confirm that comet impacts are relatively frequent and efficient providers of CO to the atmospheres of the outer planets. However, a diffuse and/or local source cannot be rejected, because we did not account for photochemistry of oxygen compounds. Finally, we have derived an upper limit of ∼1×10^-9 on the tropospheric CO mixing ratio.     

Asteroids were born big

How big were the first planetesimals? We attempt to answer this question by conducting coagulation simulations in which the planetesimals grow by mutual collisions and form larger bodies and planetary embryos. The size frequency distribution (SFD) of the initial planetesimals is considered a free parameter in these simulations, and we search for the one that produces at the end objects with a SFD that is consistent with Asteroid belt constraints. We find that, if the initial planetesimals were small (e.g. km-sized), the final SFD fails to fulfill these constraints. In particular, reproducing the bump observed at diameter in the current SFD of the asteroids requires that the minimal size of the initial planetesimals was also ∼100 km. This supports the idea that planetesimals formed big, namely that the size of solids in the proto-planetary disk “jumped” from sub-meter scale to multi-kilometer scale, without passing through intermediate values. Moreover, we find evidence that the initial planetesimals had to have sizes ranging from 100 to several 100 km, probably even 1000 km, and that their SFD had to have a slope over this interval that was similar to the one characterizing the current asteroids in the same size range. This result sets a new constraint on planetesimal formation models and opens new perspectives for the investigation of the collisional evolution in the Asteroid and Kuiper belts as well as of the accretion of the cores of the giant planets.     

Fundamentally distinct outcomes of asteroid collisional evolution and catastrophic disruption

The outcomes of asteroid collisional evolution are presently unclear: are most asteroids larger than 1 km size gravitational aggregates reaccreted from fragments of a parent body that was collisionally disrupted, while much smaller asteroids are collisional shards that were never completely disrupted? The 16 km mean diameter S-type asteroid 433 Eros, visited by the NEAR mission, has surface geology consistent with being a fractured shard. A ubiquitous fabric of linear structural features is found on the surface of Eros and probably indicates a globally consolidated structure beneath its regolith cover. Despite the differences in absolute scale and in lighting conditions for NEAR and Hayabusa, similar features should have been found on 25143 Itokawa if present. This much smaller, 320 m diameter S-asteroid was visited by the Hayabusa spacecraft. Comparative analyses of Itokawa and Eros geology reveal fundamental differences, and interpretation of Eros geology is illuminated by comparison with Itokawa. Itokawa lacks a global lineament fabric, and its blocks, craters, and regolith may be inconsistent with formation and evolution as a fractured shard, unlike Eros. An object as small as Itokawa can form as a rubble pile, while much larger Eros formed as a fractured shard. Itokawa is not a scaled-down Eros, but formed by catastrophic disruption and reaccumulation.