Natural disasters' influence on industrial growth,foreign direct investment,and export performance in the South Asian region of Belt and road initiative

Natural Hazards - The study was conducted to elaborate on the impact of two main components of natural disasters (Population affected and damages) on FDI, industrial growth, and export performance...     

The relationship between geology and rock weathering on the rock instability along Mugling–Narayanghat road corridor, Central Nepal Himalaya

The present study was conducted along the Mugling–Narayanghat road section and its surrounding region that is most affected by landslide and related mass-movement phenomena. The main rock types in the study area are limestone, dolomite, slate, phyllite, quartzite and amphibolites of Lesser Himalaya, sandstone, mudstone and conglomerates of Siwaliks and Holocene Deposits. Due to the important role of geology and rock weathering in the instabilities, an attempt has been made to understand the relationship between these phenomena. Consequently, landslides of the road section and its surrounding region have been assessed using remote sensing, Geographical information systems and multiple field visits. A landslide inventory map was prepared and comprising 275 landslides. Nine landslides representing the whole area were selected for detailed studies. Field surveys, integrated with laboratory tests, were used as the main criteria for determining the weathering zones in the landslide area. From the overall study, it is seen that large and complex landslides are related to deep rock weathering followed by the intervention of geological structures as faults, joints and fractures. Rotational types of landslides are observed in highly weathered rocks, where the dip direction of the foliation plane together with the rock weathering plays a principle role. Shallow landslides are developed in the slope covered by residual soil or colluviums. The rock is rather fresh below these covers. Some shallow landslides (rock topples) are related to the attitude of the foliation plane and are generally observed in fresh rocks. Debris slides and debris flows occur in colluviums or residual soil-covered slopes. In few instances, they are also related to the rock fall occurring at higher slopes. The materials from the rock fall are mixed with the colluviums and other materials lying on the slope downhill and flow as debris flow. Rock falls are mainly related to the joint pattern and the slope angle. They are found in less-weathered rocks. From all these, it is concluded that the rock weathering followed by geological structures has prominent role in the rock slope instability along Mugling–Narayanghat road section and its surrounding regions.     

Landslide susceptibility mapping using certainty factor, index of entropy and logistic regression models in GIS and their comparison at Mugling�CNarayanghat road section in Nepal Himalaya

Landslide susceptibility maps are vital for disaster management and for planning development activities in the mountainous country like Nepal. In the present study, landslide susceptibility assessment of Mugling?CNarayanghat road and its surrounding area is made using bivariate (certainty factor and index of entropy) and multivariate (logistic regression) models. At first, a landslide inventory map was prepared using earlier reports and aerial photographs as well as by carrying out field survey. As a result, 321 landslides were mapped and out of which 241 (75?%) were randomly selected for building landslide susceptibility models, while the remaining 80 (25?%) were used for validating the models. The effectiveness of landslide susceptibility assessment using GIS and statistics is based on appropriate selection of the factors which play a dominant role in slope stability. In this case study, the following landslide conditioning factors were evaluated: slope gradient; slope aspect; altitude; plan curvature; lithology; land use; distance from faults, rivers and roads; topographic wetness index; stream power index; and sediment transport index. These factors were prepared from topographic map, drainage map, road map, and the geological map. Finally, the validation of landslide susceptibility map was carried out using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. The ROC plot estimation results showed that the susceptibility map using index of entropy model with AUC value of 0.9016 has highest prediction accuracy of 90.16?%. Similarly, the susceptibility maps produced using logistic regression model and certainty factor model showed 86.29 and 83.57?% of prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, the ROC plot showed that the success rate of all the three models performed more than 80?% accuracy (i.e. 89.15?% for IOE model, 89.10?% for LR model and 87.21?% for CF model). Hence, it is concluded that all the models employed in this study showed reasonably good accuracy in predicting the landslide susceptibility of Mugling?CNarayanghat road section. These landslide susceptibility maps can be used for preliminary land use planning and hazard mitigation purpose.     

Characteristics of landslides in western Colorado,USA

Mass movement can be activated by earthquakes, rapid snowmelt, or intense rainstorms in conjunction with gravity. Whereas mass movement plays a major role in the evolution of a hillslope by modifying slope morphology and transporting material from the slope to the valley, it is also a potential natural hazard. Determining the relationships of frequency and magnitude of landslides are fundamental to understanding the role of landslides in the study of landscape evolution, hazard assessment, and determination of the rate of hillslope denudation. We mapped 735 shallow and active landslides in the Paonia to McClure Pass area of western Colorado from aerial photographs and field surveys. The study area covers ～815 km². The frequency–magnitude relationships of the landslides illustrate the flux of debris by mass movement in the area. The comparison of the probability density of the landslides with the double Pareto curve, defined by power scaling for negative slope (α), power scaling for positive slope (β), and location of rollover (t), shows that α?=?1.1, β?=?1.9, and t?=?1,600 m² for areas of landslides and α?=?1.15, β?=?1.8, and t?=?1,900 m³ for volumes of landslides. The total area of landslides is 4.8?×?10⁶ m² and the total volume of the landslides is 1.4?×?10⁷ m³. The areas (A) and the volumes (V) of landslides are related by V?=?0.0254?×?A ^1.45. The frequency–magnitude analysis shows that landslides with areas ranging in size from 1,600 to 20,000 m² are the most hazardous landslides in the study area. These landslides are the most frequent and also do a significant amount of geomorphic work. We also developed a conceptual model of hillslope development to upland plateau driven by river incision, shallow landsliding, and deep-seated large landsliding. The gentle slope to flat upland plateau that dominated the Quaternary landscape of the study area was modified to the present steep and rugged topography by the combined action of fluvial incision and glacial processes in response to rock uplift, very-frequent shallow landsliding, and less-frequent deep-seated landsliding.     

Development of Taprang landslide,West Nepal

This paper is about a large landslide located at Taprang, on the right bank of the Madi River in the west Nepal Himalaya. It attempts to reconstruct the evolution of the landslide from its initial state to the present conditions. Many large landslides involve multiple failure incidents in different times to attain their present size and shape. The Taprang landslide has also been active for more than 75 years and experienced many failure episodes. The slide lies in a very complex geological setting characterized by the presence of Main Central Thrust and some other folds as well as several joint sets and shear zones. It is developed on weathered graphitic schists, highly fractured and jointed quartzites, marbles, gneisses, and a few amphibolites. Landslide mapping revealed that the rocks are deformed and fractured. They have also undergone intense weathering. Laboratory analysis of rock and soil samples collected from the landslide and surrounding area shows that the weathered rocks, joint infillings, and shear zones are rich in clay minerals, especially smectite and montmorillonite having swelling properties. Besides, hydrologic, climatic, and anthropogenic factors operating simultaneously since a long time have also contributed significantly to the enlargement of the slide. The study indicates that the landslide has a high potential of future enlargement towards upper slopes.     

Dynamic process-based risk assessment of debris flow on a local scale

After the Wenchuan earthquake in China, debris flows have been more frequent. Multiple debris flows commonly occur in earthquake-affected areas during heavy rainfall, often causing losses of lives and property. We analyzed the dynamic movement of debris flows and proposed a quantitative method of debris flow hazard assessment, based on kinetic energy. Validated using field study of an actual debris flow disaster, these analyzes help determine the type, quantity, distribution, economic worth, and susceptibility of elements at risk. We established a method to determine vulnerability of elements at risk and we propose a systematic and quantitative method for local risk analysis of debris flows. We applied the proposed method to a debris flow in Qipan gully, which caused serious damages for Duwen Highway and Qipan settlements of Sichuan Province in 2013. With the support of a debris-flow movement numerical simulation, remote sensing, and GIS techniques, the proposed method analyzed disaster effects and divided the hazardous areas into three risk zones. Calculated risk zones coincided with the actual distribution and severity of damage of the event, suggesting that the risk assessment generated by the proposed method is consistent with results from the actual disaster.     

Hillslope response under variable microclimate

Solar radiation-controlled microclimatic variation has been considered a major force on hillslope evolution via feedback among geomorphology, vegetation, soil and hydrology. In this study, we investigate the influence of solar radiation on hillslope dynamics on Santa Catalina Island, CA by comparing hillslope morphology and frequency–magnitude relationships of shallow landslides, rills and gullies on slopes receiving low annual solar radiation (LSR) and high annual solar radiation (HSR), which were found equivalent to north- and south-facing slopes, respectively. LSR slopes on Santa Catalina Island were found more vegetated compared to HSR slopes. LiDAR elevation-derived hillslope morphology showed LSR slopes steeper, rougher and more concave than HSR slopes. Similarly, frequency–magnitude plots showed larger relative frequency of high-magnitude shallow landslides, rills and gullies on LSR slopes, and low-magnitude shallow landslides, rills and gullies on HSR slopes. We argue that the morphology, mass movement and erosion characteristics of LSR and HSR slopes reflect the process–response of microclimate-controlled variation in type and density of vegetation cover, soil physical properties – including moisture, texture, structure, infiltration and erodibility – and surface and subsurface hydrology. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.