Using paleoclimate proxy-data to select optimal realisations in an ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium

We present and describe in detail the advantages and limitations of a technique that combines in an optimal way model results and proxy-data time series in order to obtain states of the climate system consistent with model physics, reconstruction of past radiative forcing and proxy records. To achieve this goal, we select among an ensemble of simulations covering the last millennium performed with a low-resolution 3-D climate model the ones that minimise a cost function. This cost function measures the misfit between model results and proxy records. In the framework of the tests performed here, an ensemble of 30 to 40 simulations appears sufficient to reach reasonable correlations between model results and reconstructions, in configurations for which a small amount of data is available as well as in data-rich areas. Preliminary applications of the technique show that it can be used to provide reconstructions of past large-scale temperature changes, complementary to the ones obtained by statistical methods. Furthermore, as model results include a representation of atmospheric and oceanic circulations, it can be used to provide insights into some amplification mechanisms responsible for past temperature changes. On the other hand, if the number of proxy records is too low, it could not be used to provide reconstructions of past changes at a regional scale.     

Seasonal oscillations in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes

Using 3 years of high-quality temperature measurements (2002–2004) recorded from Maui, HI (20.8°N), we have investigated the characteristics of mesospheric seasonal oscillations at low-latitudes. Measurements of the near-infrared OH (6,2) and O₂ (0,1) nightglow emission layers (centered at 87 and 94 km) independently reveal a distinct semi-annual oscillation (SAO) and annual oscillation (AO) with amplitudes of 3.8 and 2.0 K, respectively. An observed asymmetry in the seasonal variation of the nocturnal mean, previously reported by Taylor et al. [2005. Characterization of the semi-annual-oscillation in mesospheric temperatures at low-latitudes. Advances in Space Research 35, doi:10.1016/j.asr.2005.05.111] from this site is shown to be due to a superposed AO of amplitude 50% of the SAO signature. Detailed investigations of the local-time variation of the SAO amplitude and phase combined with TIME-GCM simulations of the seasonal variation of the diurnal tide strongly suggest a large local-time dependence of the amplitude (but not phase) of the observed SAO. These data indicate that the true mean temperature SAO amplitude could be as high as 7 K at this latitude.     

Modelling F2-layer seasonal trends and day-to-day variability driven by coupling with the lower atmosphere

This paper presents results from the TIME-GCM-CCM3 thermosphere–ionosphere–lower atmosphere flux-coupled model, and investigates how well the model simulates known F2-layer day/night and seasonal behaviour and patterns of day-to-day variability at seven ionosonde stations. Of the many possible contributors to F2-layer variability, the present work includes only the influence of ‘meteorological’ disturbances transmitted from lower levels in the atmosphere, solar and geomagnetic conditions being held at constant levels throughout a model year.In comparison to ionosonde data, TIME-GCM-CCM3 models the peak electron density (NmF2) quite well, except for overemphasizing the daytime summer/winter anomaly in both hemispheres and seriously underestimating night NmF2 in summer. The peak height hmF2 is satisfactorily modelled by day, except that the model does not reproduce its observed semiannual variation. Nighttime values of hmF2 are much too low, thus causing low model values of night NmF2. Comparison of the variations of NmF2 and the neutral [O/N₂] ratio supports the idea that both annual and semiannual variations of F2-layer electron density are largely caused by changes of neutral composition, which in turn are driven by the global thermospheric circulation.Finally, the paper describes and discusses the characteristics of the F2-layer response to the imposed ‘meteorological’ disturbances. The ionospheric response is evaluated as the standard deviations of five ionospheric parameters for each station within 11-day blocks of data. At any one station, the patterns of variability show some coherence between different parameters, such as peak electron density and the neutral atomic/molecular ratio. Coherence between stations is found only between the closest pairs, some 2500 km apart, which is presumably related to the scale size of the ‘meteorological’ disturbances. The F2-layer day-to-day variability appears to be related more to variations in winds than to variations of thermospheric composition.     

On the excitation of short-term variations in the length of the day and polar motion

Variations in the distribution of mass within the atmosphere, and changes in the pattern of winds produce fluctuations in all three components of the angular momentum of the atmosphere on time-scales upwards of a few days. It, has been shown that variations in theaxial component of atmospheric angular momentum during the Special Observing Periods in the recent First GARP Global Experiment (FGGE, where GARP is the Global Atmospheric Research Programme) are well correlated with short-term changes in the length of the day. They are consistent with the total angular momentum of the atmosphere and solid Earth being conserved on short timescales (allowing for lunar and solar effects), without requiring significant angular momentum transfer between the Earth's liquid core and solid mantle on timescales of weeks or months. It has also been shown that fluctuations, in the equatorial components of atmospheric angular momentum make a major contribution to the observed wobble of the instantaneous pole of the Earth's rotation with respect to the Earth's crust. A necessary step in the investigation was a re-examination of the underlying theory of non-rigid body rotational dynamics and angular momentum exchange between the atmosphere and solid Earth. Since only viscous or topographic coupling between the atmosphere and solid Earth can transfer angular momentum, no atmospheric flow that everywhere satisfied inviscid equations (including, but not solely, geostrophic flow) could affect the rotation of a spherical solid Earth. New effective angular momentum functions were introduced in order to exploit the available data and allow for rotational and surface loading deformation of the Earth. A theoretical basis has now been established for future routine determinations of atmopheric, angular momentum fluctuations for the purpose of meteorological and geophysical research, including the assessment of the extent to which movements in the solid Earth associated with very large earthquakes contribute to the excitation of the Chandlerian wobble.     

The snowball Earth aftermath: Exploring the limits of continental weathering processes

Carbonates capping Neoproterozoic glacial deposits contain peculiar sedimentological features and geochemical anomalies ascribed to extraordinary environmental conditions in the snowball Earth aftermath. It is commonly assumed that post-snowball climate dominated by CO₂ partial pressures several hundred times greater than modern levels, would be characterized by extreme temperatures, a vigorous hydrological cycle, and associated high continental weathering rates. However, the climate in the aftermath of a global glaciation has never been rigorously modelled. Here, we use a hierarchy of numerical models, from an atmospheric general circulation model to a mechanistic model describing continental weathering processes, to explore characteristics of the Earth system during the supergreenhouse climate following a snowball glaciation. These models suggest that the hydrological cycle intensifies only moderately in response to the elevated greenhouse. Indeed, constraints imposed by the surface energy budget sharply limit global mean evaporation once the temperature has warmed sufficiently that the evaporation approaches the total absorbed solar radiation. Even at 400 times the present day pressure of atmospheric CO₂, continental runoff is only 1.2 times the modern runoff. Under these conditions and accounting for the grinding of the continental surface by the ice sheet during the snowball event, the simulated maximum discharge of dissolved elements from continental weathering into the ocean is approximately 10 times greater than the modern flux. Consequently, it takes millions of years for the silicate weathering cycle to reduce post-snowball CO₂ levels to background Neoproterozoic levels. Regarding the origin of the cap dolostones, we show that continental weathering alone does not supply enough cations during the snowball melting phase to account for their observed volume.     

Spatial interpolation of snow water equivalency using surface observations and remotely sensed images of snow‐covered area

As demand for water continues to escalate in the western Unites States, so does the need for accurate monitoring of the snowpack in mountainous areas. In this study, we describe a simple methodology for generating gridded‐estimates of snow water equivalency (SWE) using both surface observations of SWE and remotely sensed estimates of snow‐covered area (SCA). Multiple regression was used to quantify the relationship between physiographic variables (elevation, slope, aspect, clear‐sky solar radiation, etc.) and SWE as measured at a number of sites in a mountainous basin in south‐central Idaho (Big Wood River Basin). The elevation of the snowline, obtained from the SCA estimates, was used to constrain the predicted SWE values. The results from the analysis are encouraging and compare well to those found in previous studies, which often utilized more sophisticated spatial interpolation techniques. Cross‐validation results indicate that the spatial interpolation method produces accurate SWE estimates [mean R² = 0·82, mean mean absolute error (MAE) = 4·34 cm, mean root mean squared error (RMSE) = 5·29 cm]. The basin examined in this study is typical of many mid‐elevation mountainous basins throughout the western United States, in terms of the distribution of topographic variables, as well as the number and characteristics of sites at which the necessary ground data are available. Thus, there is high potential for this methodology to be successfully applied to other mountainous basins. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Facies characteristics, morphology and depositional models of clay-slide deposits in terraced fjord valleys, Norway

Many bedrock-confined fjord valleys along the Norwegian coast contain thick accumulations of fine-grained sediments that were deposited during and after the last deglaciation. The deposits gradually emerged above sea level due to glacioisostatic uplift, and fjord marine sedimentation was gradually followed by shallow marine and fluvial processes. During emergence terraces and river-cut slopes were formed in the valleys. Subsequent leaching of salt ions from the pore water in the marine deposits by groundwater has led to the development of quick clay. The deposits are subject to river erosion and destructive landslides involving quick clay. Most slides are of prehistoric age. Others are known from modern observations as well as from historic records.Landforms such as distinct slide scars or the hummocky terrain of slide deposits may be strongly modified by secondary processes. In addition, deposits from the most liquid part of quick clay slides may have planar surfaces. Clay-slide deposits on a fluvial or deltaic terrace, therefore, are not always easily recognized from morphology, and only exposures may reveal their internal structures and allow them to be distinguished from overbank flood sediments. Detailed sedimentological work shows that slide deposits in such setting consist of distinct facies containing reworked marine sediments. We propose three facies successions of clay-slide deposits that form a continuum. The dominant components of these succession types are: slightly deformed blocks of laminated clay and silt (A), highly deformed clay and silt with gravel clasts (B) and massive to stratified clay and silt with scattered clasts (C). We suggest that in many cases a basal muddy diamicton is a characteristic, and possibly diagnostic feature. Processes and depositional models are interpreted from the different succession types. The results may be relevant for identifying clay-slide deposits elsewhere and may be useful during general mapping of fjord marine deposits and characterization of slide-prone areas as well as during identification of prehistoric slides.     

Estimating severity of liquefaction-induced damage near foundation

An empirical procedure for estimating the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations of existing buildings is established. The procedure is based on an examination of 30 case histories from recent earthquakes. The data for these case histories consist of observations of the damage that resulted from liquefaction, and the subsurface soil conditions as revealed by cone penetration tests. These field observations are used to classify these cases into one of three damaging effect categories, ‘no damage’, ‘minor to moderate damage’, and ‘major damage’. The potential for liquefaction-induced ground failure at each site is calculated and expressed as the probability of ground failure. The relationship between the probability of ground failure and the damage class is established, which allows for the evaluation of the severity of liquefaction-induced ground damage at or near foundations. The procedure presented herein represents a significant attempt to address the issue of liquefaction effect. Caution must be exercised, however, when using the proposed model and procedure for estimating liquefaction damage severity, because they are developed based on limited number of case histories.     

UV diagnostics for the energy budget of flares and CMEs

Solar flares and coronal mass ejections convert large amounts of magnetic free energy into thermal, kinetic and potential energies, and into energy of non-thermal particles. The partitioning among these forms of energy is fundamental to both the physics of the eruptive events and the space weather consequences of the eruptions. This talk describes some aspects of the energy budget that can be derived from ultraviolet observations of the corona.     

Multivariate statistical techniques applied to pisolitic laterite geochemistry at Golden Grove, Western Australia

Multivariate statistical procedures are applied to pisolitic laterite geochemistry in a study of the Golden Grove massive sulphide district. The objective is to optimize identification of geochemical anomalies caused by base metal mineral deposits.The statistical approach used in this paper depends upon geochemical data for appropriate reference groups (or training sets) being available. The target group consists of orientation data from pisolitic laterite about the Gossan Hill Cu-Zn massive sulphide deposit. A group representing background sequence was selected by combining three subareas in a geochemically quiet part of the prospective acid volcano-sedimentary sequence.A multi-element allocation procedure was set up using data from the reference groups. The exploration samples are then allocated, one sample at a time, to either one of the reference group categories, using the probability of group membership. A map showing the relative probability values for each sample site is the final product for interpretation, aided by ancillary use of an index of typicality.The allocation procedures were carried out using different element combinations, these being based on a procedure for subset selection to give maximum separation of reference groups, and on geochemical insight. Whilst many versions of the allocation procedure gave positive identification of the anomaly related to the blind Scuddles Cu-Zn deposit, allocation using only Cu, Pb, Zn and Ag did not. The results emphasize the importance of pathfinder elements in geochemical studies in weathered terrain.The allocation procedure using the most appropriate element combinations provided more positive identification of the main areas of known mineralization than had the previously used empirically derived methods of Smith and Perdrix (1983). The formal allocation procedure has the following additional advantages: results are not markedly affected by a very high value for any single element since robust procedures are incorporated into the analysis; better discrimination appears to be possible for weaker anomalies; separation of target from background can be optimized by formal calculations instead of by trial and error; and better suppression of background variation results.