Stochastic Lagrangian trajectory model for drifting objects in the ocean

The prediction of drifting object trajectories in the ocean is a complex problem plagued with uncertainties. This problem is usually solved simulating the possible trajectories based on wind and advective numerical and/or instrumental data in real time, which are incorporated into Lagrangian trajectory models. However, both data and Lagrangian models are approximations of reality and when comparing trajectory data collected from drifter exercises with respect to Lagrangian models results, they differ considerably. This paper introduces a stochastic Lagrangian trajectory model that allows quantifying the uncertainties related to: (i) the wind and currents numerical and/or instrumental data, and (ii) the Lagrangian trajectory model. These uncertainties are accounted for within the model through random model parameters. The quantification of these uncertainties consists in an estimation problem, where the parameters of the probability distribution functions of the random variables are estimated based on drifter exercise data. Particularly, it is assumed that estimated parameters maximize the likelihood of our model to reproduce the trajectories from the exercise. Once the probability distribution parameters are estimated, they can be used to simulate different trajectories, obtaining location probability density functions at different times. The advantage of this method is that it allows: (i) site specific calibration, and (ii) comparing uncertainties related to different wind and currents predictive tools. The proposed method is applied to data collected during the DRIFTER Project (eranet AMPERA, VI Programa Marco), showing very good predictive skills.     

Focal depths and mechanisms of Tohoku-Oki aftershocks from teleseismic P wave modeling

Aftershocks of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki great earthquake have a wide range of focal depths and fault plane mechanisms. We constrain the focal depths and focal mechanisms of 69 aftershocks with M _w > 5.4 by modeling the waveforms of teleseismic P and its trailing near-surface reflections pP and sP. We find that the “thrust events” are within 10 km from the plate interface. The dip angles of these thrust events increase with depth from ~5° to ~25°. The “non-thrust events” vary from 60 km above to 40 km below the plate interface. Normal and strike-slip events within the overriding plate point to redistribution of stress following the primary great earthquake; however, due to the spatially variable stress change in the Tohoku-Oki earthquake, an understanding of how the mainshock affected the stresses that led to the aftershocks requires accurate knowledge of the aftershock location.     

智利中部因M8.8地震而最终破裂

智利是世界上部分大地震的发生地：那里大概平均每十年就会发生一次8级地震。这些地震都发生在俯冲带：有的发生在南美和Nazca板块之间的界面上,称为板问破裂;有的发生在Nazca俯冲板块内部,称为板内事件。每个世纪都会发生几次巨大的板内、     

Late Viséan–Serpukhovian foraminiferans and calcareous algae from the Adarouch region (central Morocco), North Africa

Three Upper Viséan to Serpukhovian limestone formations from the Adarouch region (central Morocco), North Africa, have been dated precisely using foraminiferans and calcareous algae. The lower and middle part of the oldest formation, the Tizra Formation (Fm), is assigned to the latest Asbian (upper Cf6γ Subzone), and its upper part to the Early Brigantian (lower Cf6δ Subzone). The topmost beds of this formation are assigned to the Late Brigantian (upper Cf6δ Subzone). The lower part of the succeeding Mouarhaz Fm is also assigned to the Late Brigantian (upper Cf6δ Subzone). The Akerchi Fm is younger than the other formations within the region, ranging from the latest Brigantian (uppermost Cf6δ Subzone) up to the Serpukhovian (E₁–E₂). The base of the Serpukhovian (Pendleian Substage, E₁) is repositioned, to coincide with the appearance of a suite of foraminiferans including Archaediscus at tenuis stage, Endothyranopsis plana, Eostaffella pseudostruvei, Loeblichia ukrainica, Loeblichia aff. minima and Biseriella? sp. 1. The upper Serpukhovian (Arnsbergian Substage, E₂) is marked by the first appearance of Eostaffellina ex. gr. paraprotvae and Globoomphalotis aff. pseudosamarica. The biostratigraphical scheme used for the reassessment of the foraminiferal zones and subzones in the Adarouch area closely compares with that for the British succession in northern England (Pennine Region), where the stratotypes of the Upper Viséan (Asbian and Brigantian) and Early Serpukhovian (Pendleian) substages are located. Thus, a succession equivalent to an interval from the Melmerby Scar Limestone to the Great (or Little) Limestone is recognized. These assemblages are also compared to other foraminiferal zones proposed in other regions of Morocco. Several foraminiferans have been identified that are proposed as potential Serpukhovian markers for other basins in Western Europe, and compared to sequences in Russia and the Donets Basin, Ukraine. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide: a case study of El Berrinche

Slope failure or landslide is a complex geological/geotechnical problem that involves much uncertainty. In this work, a framework for probabilistic assessment of landslide is presented with a focus on the El Berrinche landslide, Honduras. One unique feature of this case study involving the El Berrinche landslide is that the stability analysis has to be carried out with limited data. Another challenge in this study is to assess possible remedial measures in a way that can easily be communicated to the government and the public. A reliability-based framework for a probabilistic assessment is proposed. With this approach, different levels of risk for landslide are assessed and the associated costs are estimated; and all information is integrated into the decision-making process for choosing a remedial action.     

Effects of excitation frequency on detection accuracy of orthogonal wavelet decomposition for structural health monitoring

Accurate estimation of stiffness loss is a challenging problem in structural health monitoring. In this study orthogonal wavelet decomposition is used for identifying the stiffness loss in a single degree of freedom spring-mass-damper system. The effects of excitation frequency on accuracy of damage detection is investigated. Results show that pseudo-alias effects caused by the orthogonal wavelet decomposition (OWD), affect damage detectability. It is demonstrated that theproposed approach is sunable for damage detection when the excitation frequency is relatively low. This study shows how a priori knowledge about the signal and ability to control the sampling frequency can enhance damage detectability.     

On the design of beach nourishment projects using static equilibrium concepts: Application to the Spanish coast

The concept of equilibrium plan form and equilibrium profile has been widely used as an engineering tool in order to design beach nourishment projects. The scope of this paper is to further explore this “equilibrium beach” concept in crenulated bays, as a long-term tool for beach nourishment projects. The proposed methodology is based on González and Medina (2001) and combines the static equilibrium plan and profile for long-term analysis. This methodology includes a modified equilibrium plan form, which is able to define the orientation of the local wave front in the diffracting point, and also to locate the downcoast starting point of the static equilibrium beach from which the parabolic plan form of Hsu and Evans (1989) is valid. This methodology permits the application of any equilibrium profile formulation. An example of the application of this methodology and long-term formulations to the design of the Spanish nourishment project of Poniente Beach (Gijón) is presented. Ten years after its construction, the beach has still got a static equilibrium and remains pretty close to the predicted equilibrium beach in plan and profile.