On the treatment of uncertainty in seismic vulnerability and portfolio risk assessment

In a related study developed by the authors, building fragility is represented by intensity‐specific distributions of damage exceedance probability of various damage states. The contribution of the latter has been demonstrated in the context of loss estimation of building portfolios, where it is shown that the proposed concept of conditional fragility functions provides the link between seismic intensity and the uncertainty in damage exceedance probabilities. In the present study, this methodology is extended to the definition of building vulnerability, whereby vulnerability functions are characterized by hazard‐consistent distributions of damage ratio per level of primary seismic intensity parameter—Sa(T₁). The latter is further included in a loss assessment framework, in which the impact of variability and spatial correlation of damage ratio in the probabilistic evaluation of seismic loss is accounted for, using test‐bed portfolios of 2, 5, and 8‐story precode reinforced concrete buildings located in the district of Lisbon, Portugal. This methodology is evaluated in comparison with current state‐of‐the‐art methods of vulnerability and loss calculation, highlighting the discrepancies that can arise in loss estimates when the variability and spatial distributions of damage ratio, influenced by ground motion properties other than the considered primary intensity measure, are not taken into account.     

Postglacial to Holocene landscape evolution and process rates in steep alpine catchments

Climate change and high magnitude mass wasting events pose adverse societal effects and hazards, especially in alpine regions. Quantification of such geomorphic processes and their rates is therefore critical but is often hampered by the lack of appropriate techniques and the various spatiotemporal scales involved in these studies. Here we exploit both in situ cosmogenic beryllium-10 (¹⁰Be) and carbon-14 (¹⁴C) nuclide concentrations for deducing exposure ages and tracing of sediment through small alpine debris flow catchments in central Switzerland. The sediment cascade and modern processes we track from the source areas, through debris flow torrents to their final export out into sink regions with cosmogenic nuclides over an unprecedented five-year time series with seasonal resolution. Data from a seismic survey and a 90 m core revealed a glacially overdeepened basin, filled with glacial and paraglacial sediments. Surface exposure dating of fan boulders and radiocarbon ages constrain the valley fill from the last deglaciation until the Holocene and show that most of the fan existed in early Holocene times already. Current fan processes are controlled by episodic debris flow activity, snow (firn) and rock avalanches. Field investigations, digital elevation models (DEMs) of difference and geomorphic analysis agree with sediment fingerprinting with cosmogenic nuclides, highlighting that the bulk of material exported today at the outlet of the subcatchments derives from the lower fans. Cosmogenic nuclide concentrations steadily decrease from headwater sources to distal fan channels due to the incorporation of material with lower nuclide concentrations. Further downstream the admixture of sediment from catchments with less frequent debris flow activity can dilute the cosmogenic nuclide signals from debris flow dominated catchments but may also reach thresholds where buffering is limited. Consequently, careful assessment of boundary conditions and driving forces is required when apparent denudation rates derived from cosmogenic nuclide analysis are upscaled to larger regions. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterizing Non-Industrial Private Forest Landowners' Forest Management Engagement and Advice Sources

Non-industrial private forestland (NIPF) owners have options for engagement by following management strategies that reduce wildfire risk on their forestlands. Forest management engagement is a broad term with underlying categories and management implications. To better understand these categories, we examine interview data on the engagement of forest landowners from a case study of private forestland owner perspectives in northeast Oregon, USA. NIPF landowners outline two types of forest management engagement, one for property and one for community-focused forestland management. NIPF owners describe actions for engagement in public forestland management and how these actions differ from engagement in private management. Additionally, NIPF owners establish barriers to engagement in both public and private forestland management. Our findings can be used to better identify unengaged private forestland owners in the U.S. West, informing the design and implementation of extension and outreach for NIPF owners.     

Constrained Kriging: An Alternative to Predict Global Recoverable Resources

Natural Resources Research - In most NI-43-101 resource assessment reports the prediction of global in situ resources is performed by either inverse distance weighting, ordinary kriging (OK) or...     

The Relationship between El Niño and the Duration and Frequency of the Santa Ana Winds of Southern California

This study examines the variability of the duration and frequency of Santa Ana winds due to El Niño over a thirty‐three‐year period. Daily Weather Maps and NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis were used to study large‐scale upper‐level and surface circulation patterns during wind events. A Student's t‐test was used to determine statistically significant changes in the winds during March of El Niño winters. A significant decrease in the duration and frequency of wind events was found in March during El Niño. This can be attributed to the decrease in strength and frequency of the Great Basin high pressure and the increase in wintertime cyclones in southern California.     

Hydrothermal overprint on Cenozoic sediments in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero of Minas Gerais: implications for precious metals in cratonic terrains

Cenozoic sediments deposited in graben‐like basins in the Quadrilátero Ferrífero, southern São Francisco craton, Brazil, have anomalous contents of Hg and Sb. Two localities have been studied: the topaz deposit of Antônio Pereira, and the remains of the old opencast workings at Cata Preta, one of the earliest Au mines of Minas Gerais that dates back to about 1690. At Cata Preta, a brecciated wad‐like rock exhibits geochemical fingerprints that point to fractionation of Pt and Pd from Ag. This metal fractionation, reflected in the Au ingots produced in the region, genetically links Cata Preta to the near‐surface bonanza ore of Serra Pelada, which formed as a result of a Late‐Cretaceous hydrothermal overprint in the Amazon craton. Here, we propose that anorogenic hydrothermal activity in cratonic terrains prepared the ground for the enrichment in precious metals that gave rise to two of the most important Au rushes in Brazilian history.     

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674987114000334

The Musgrave Province developed at the nexus of the North,West and South Australian cratons and its Mesoproterozoic evolution incorporates a 100 Ma period of ultra-high temperature(UHT) metamorphism from ca.1220 to ca.1120 Ma.This was accompanied by high-temperature A-type granitic magmatism over an 80 Ma period,sourced in part from mantle-derived components and emplaced as a series of pulsed events that also coincide with peaks in UHT metamorphism.The tectonic setting for this thermal event(the Musgrave Orogeny) is thought to have been intracontinental and the lithospheric architecture of the region is suggested to have had a major influence on the thermal evolution.We use a series of two dimensional,fully coupled thermo-mechanical-petrological numerical models to investigate the plausibility of initiating and prolonging UHT conditions under model setup conditions appropriate to the inferred tectonic setting and lithospheric architecture of the Musgrave Province.The results support the inferred tectonic framework for the Musgrave Orogeny,predicting periods of UHT metamorphism of up to 70 Ma,accompanied by thin crust and extensive magmatism derived from both crustal and mantle sources.The results also appear to be critically dependent upon the specific location of the Musgrave Province,constrained between thicker cratonic masses.     

Wildfire-Migration Dynamics: Lessons from Colorado's Fourmile Canyon Fire

The number of people living in wildfire-prone wildland–urban interface (WUI) communities is on the rise. However, no prior study has investigated wildfire-induced residential relocation from WUI areas after a major fire event. To provide insight into the association between sociodemographic and sociopsychological characteristics and wildfire-related intention to move, we use data from a survey of WUI residents in Boulder and Larimer counties, Colorado. The data were collected 2 months after the devastating Fourmile Canyon fire destroyed 169 homes and burned more than 6,000 acres of public and private land. Although this study is working with a small migrant sample, logistic regression models demonstrate that survey respondents intending to move in relation to wildfire incidence do not differ sociodemographically from their nonmigrant counterparts. They do, however, show significantly higher levels of risk perception. Investigating destination choices shows a preference for short-distance moves.