Mineralogical and Chemical Composition of International Carbon and Oxygen Isotope Calibration Material NBS 19, and Reference Materials NBS 18, IAEA-CO-1 and IAEA-CO-8

International carbon and oxygen isotope calibration material NBS 19 and reference materials NBS 18, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-CO-1 and IAEA-CO-8 are prepared from naturally occurring rock specimens of marble and carbonatite. Mineralogical and chemical analysis showed that only NBS 19 and IAEA-CO-1 represent essentially pure samples of calcite containing < and minimal (< 1%) quantities of quartz. In contrast, both NBS 18 and IAEA-CO-8, although primarily composed of calcite, are contaminated by a range of additional phases. NBS 18 was estimated to contain 1% Fe-dolomite and trace (< 1%) quantities of apatite and quartz. IAEA-CO-8 was estimated to contain at least 4% non-carbonate material (including apatite, barite, biotite and magnetite). NBS 18 and IAEA-CO-8 are both derived from samples of carbonatite and the calcite component of each material is characterised by appreciable substitution of Mg + Mn + Sr ± Fe ± Ba (Σ ≈ 14000–15000 μg g^-1) for Ca. The observations reported in this study complement data in the literature detailing significant grain-scale isotopic heterogeneity in NBS 18 and IAEA-CO-8. Both data sets highlight the need for careful characterisation of calibration materials prior to distribution.     

Combining cap-and-trade with offsets: lessons from the EU-ETS

Linking a cap-and-trade with an offset mechanism has many theoretical advantages: it reduces compliance costs, extends the price signal outside the cap-and-trade, and triggers technology transfer. However, it is feared that such linking will induce outsourcing of emissions reduction at a low price and undermine the price incentive in the cap-and-trade. The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) is the first full-scale example of a cap-and-trade system linked to project-based mechanisms such that offsets have effectively been used by industrial installations. This article is an ex post analysis of EU ETS data for the years 2008 and 2009, and the characteristics of the link and its efficiency are evaluated. Although offsets have been much used, their use is concentrated and not very intense or frequent, which allays the fear that offsets will flood the market. Although the majority of surrendered CERs effectively come from the largest and oldest projects, the credits surrendered are similar to those available on the market. Possible factors that contribute towards inefficiency are the rules for using offsets, transaction costs affecting the participation of small installations, awareness and openness to market-based instruments, and uncertainties regarding CERs offer and demand from other markets. However, the impact on EUA equilibrium price still needs to be quantified.     

Seismic stratigraphical record of Lake Levinson‐Lessing,Taymyr Peninsula: evidence for ice‐sheet dynamics and lake‐level fluctuations since the Early Weichselian

A multi‐channel, high‐resolution seismic reflection survey using a Micro‐GI airgun was carried out in the framework of the Russian‐German project PLOT (Paleolimnological Transect) on Lake Levinson‐Lessing, Taymyr Peninsula, in 2016. In total, ~70 km of seismic reflection profiles revealed in unprecedented detail the glacial and postglacial sedimentary infill of the lake basin. Five main seismic units have been recognized and interpreted as glacial (Unit V), subglacial and proglacial (Unit IV), marine (Unit III), fluvial‐lacustrine (Unit II) and lacustrine (Unit I) sediments. Of particular significance are imbricated, south‐orientated structures present in the southernmost part of the lake basin within Unit V and a large topographic ridge recognized in front of those structures. We interpret these structures as push moraines and an end moraine, respectively, left by the glacier after its retreat. The depositional pattern of the units above the moraines documents past lake‐level fluctuations. We interpret Unit IV, Unit III and Unit I as highstand deposits, and Unit II as lowstand deposits. Gas‐charged sediments dominate the northern part of the lake basin, whilst they occur only sporadically and in limited spatial extent in the central and southern parts of the lake. In the latter areas, the seismic and echo‐sounder data suggest recent tectonic activity. Our study contributes to the reconstruction of environmental conditions in the Taymyr Peninsula directly following the Early Weichselian deglaciation and shows that deep tectonic lake basins affected by several glaciations can preserve important palaeoenvironmental records, which contributes significantly to our understanding of palaeoenvironmental changes in the Taymyr Peninsula and the central Russian Arctic.     

Deglaciation history of Lake Ladoga (northwestern Russia) based on varved sediments

Lake Ladoga in northwestern Russia is Europe's largest lake. The postglacial history of the Ladoga basin is for the first time documented continuously with high temporal resolution in the upper 13.3 m of a sediment core (Co1309) from the northwestern part of the lake. We applied a multiproxy approach including radiographic imaging, (bio‐)geochemical and granulometric analyses. Age control was established combining radiocarbon dating with varve chronology, the latter anchored to a correlated radiocarbon age from a lake close by. The age‐depth model reveals the onset of glacial varve sedimentation at 13 910±140 cal. a BP, when Lake Ladoga was part of the Baltic Ice Lake. Linear extrapolation of published retreat rates of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet provides a formation age of the Luga moraine close to Lake Ladoga's southern shore of 14.5–15.9 cal. ka BP, older than previously assumed. Varve sedimentation covers the Bølling/Allerød interstadial, the Younger Dryas stadial and the Early Holocene. Varve‐thickness variations, conjoined with grain‐size and geochemical variations, inform about the relative position of the Scandinavian Ice Sheet and the climate during the deglaciation phase. The upper limit of the varved succession marks the change from glaciolacustrine to normal lacustrine sedimentation and post‐dates the drainage of the Baltic Ice Lake as well as the formation of the Salpausselkä II moraine north of Lake Ladoga, by c. 250 years. The Holocene sediment record is divided into three periods in the following order: (i) a lower transition zone between the Holocene boundary and c. 9.5 cal. ka BP, characterized by mostly massive sediments with low organic content, (ii) a phase with increased organic content from c. 9.5 to 4.5 cal. ka BP corresponding to the Holocene Thermal Maximum, and (iii) a phase with relatively stable sedimentation in a lacustrine environment from c. 4.5 cal. ka BP until present.     

A new late Pleistocene subfossil site (Tsaramody,Sambaina basin,central Madagascar) with implications for the chronology of habitat and megafaunal community change on Madagascar's Central Highlands

Madagascar is a complex ‘biodiversity hotspot’ with a rapidly dwindling biota. The Late Quaternary subfossil record includes many extinct species whose loss is attributed to natural climate change and human impacts. Investigation of the chronology of these events is challenging because few localities document pre‐Holocene communities not impacted by humans. Caves with extinct lemurs of large body size comprise some of Madagascar's richest subfossil sites, but provide only a limited window into the island's past. Open highland sites may have fewer primates, but may better document other megafauna, and allow the analysis of the role of the Central Highlands as refugia and as corridors for the dispersal of vertebrates before and after human arrival. Here we present a new subfossil site, Tsaramody (Sambaina basin, Central Madagascar), a high‐altitude wetland area that preserves a diverse late glacial and postglacial vertebrate community. Tsaramody bears testimony to fluctuations in the highland flora during the transition from glacial to postglacial conditions, and the composition of a highland vertebrate community before humans arrived. We compare its biota to those of other sites to begin to document the decline and disappearance of megafauna from some of Madagascar's open ecosystems – wetlands dominated by hippopotamuses and crocodylians. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

OSL chronology of Lynch's Crater,the longest terrestrial record in NE-Australia

Lynch's Crater on the Atherton Tablelands in NE-Australia formed about 230,000 years ago during an explosive eruption, creating a maar more than 80 m deep. Since the eruption, the maar has been filled with lake sediments that are topped by peat material. A 64 m long core was recovered and an OSL dating project was undertaken to extend the chronology beyond 16 m depth, which according to ¹⁴C age control represents ～60 ka. The predominantly organic lake sediments contained abundant fine quartz of aeolian origin, and the Single Aliquot Regenerative Method (SAR) provided satisfactory equivalent dose (D_E) estimates. However, the determination of the dose rate proved both critical and difficult. Extremely low radionuclide contents led to cosmic radiation being the dominant dose rate contribution for most samples. The OSL chronology presented in this paper thus relies on modelling the changing cover by sediments and lake water over the burial time.     

Challenges of modeling current very large lahars at Nevado del Huila Volcano,Colombia

Nevado del Huila, a glacier-covered volcano in the South of Colombia’s Cordillera Central, had not experienced any historical eruptions before 2007. In 2007 and 2008, the volcano erupted with phreatic and phreatomagmatic events which produced lahars with flow volumes of up to about 300 million m³ causing severe damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. The magnitude of these lahars and the prevailing potential for similar or even larger events, poses significant hazards to local people and makes appropriate modeling a real challenge. In this study, we analyze the recent lahars to better understand the main processes and then model possible scenarios for future events. We used lahar inundation depths, travel duration, and flow deposits to constrain the dimensions of the 2007 event and applied LAHARZ and FLO-2D for lahar modeling. Measured hydrographs, geophone seismic sensor data and calculated peak discharges served as input data for the reconstruction of flow hydrographs and for calibration of the models. For model validation, results were compared with field data collected along the Páez and Simbola Rivers. Based on the results of the 2007 lahar simulation, we modeled lahar scenarios with volumes between 300 million and 1 billion m³. The approach presented here represents a feasible solution for modeling high-magnitude flows like lahars and allows an assessment of potential future events and related consequences for population centers downstream of Nevado del Huila.     

On the treatment of uncertainties in the development of fragility functions for earthquake loss estimation of building portfolios

State‐of‐the‐art methods for the assessment of building fragility consider the structural capacity and seismic demand variability in the estimation of the probability of exceeding different damage states. However, questions remain regarding the appropriate treatment of such sources of uncertainty from a statistical significance perspective. In this study, material, geometrical and mechanical properties of a number of building classes are simulated by means of a Monte Carlo sampling process in which the statistical distribution of the aforementioned parameters is taken into consideration. Record selection is performed in accordance with hazard‐consistent distributions of a comprehensive set of intensity measures, and issues related with sufficiency, efficiency, predictability and scaling robustness are addressed. Based on the appraised minimum number of ground motion records required to achieve statistically meaningful estimates of response variability conditioned on different levels of seismic intensity, the concept of conditional fragility functions is presented. These functions translate the probability of exceeding a set of damage states as a function of a secondary sufficient intensity measure, when records are selected and scaled for a particular level of primary seismic intensity parameter. It is demonstrated that this process allows a hazard‐consistent and statistically meaningful representation of uncertainty and correlation in the estimation of intensity‐dependent damage exceedance probabilities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.