Community vulnerability to hazards: introducing local expert knowledge into the equation

The accuracies of three different evolutionary artificial neural network (ANN) approaches, ANN with genetic algorithm (ANN-GA), ANN with particle swarm optimization (ANN-PSO) and ANN with imperialist competitive algorithm (ANN-ICA), were compared in estimating groundwater levels (GWL) based on precipitation, evaporation and previous GWL data. The input combinations determined using auto-, partial auto- and cross-correlation analyses and tried for each model are: (i) GWL _t?1 and GWL _t?2; (ii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t ; (iii) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and E _t ; (iv) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2, P _t and E _t ; (v) GWL _t?1, GWL _t?2 and P _t?1 where GWL _t , P _t and E _t indicate the GWL, precipitation and evaporation at time t, individually. The optimal ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained by trying various control parameters. The best accuracies of the ANN-GA, ANN-PSO and ANN-ICA models were obtained from input combination (i). The mean square error accuracies of the ANN-GA and ANN-ICA models were increased by 165 and 124% using ANN-PSO model. The results indicated that the ANN-PSO model performed better than the other models in modeling monthly groundwater levels.     

Relationships between typhoons,climate and crime rates in Taiwan

The literature indicates climate change is likely to cause more frequent and intense extreme weather events along with higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Taiwan frequently suffers from extremes in the form of typhoons, and their effects threaten both social stability and public security. Temperature effects through climate change are also expected to alter crime rates. We examine the immediate and longer-run impacts of typhoons and other climate variables on crime rates in Taiwan. The immediate results suggest that typhoon intensity has a significantly negative influence on rates of crime, including all violent crimes and automobile thefts. They also show that warmer temperatures have a strong positive effect on all violent crimes and all the subtypes of violent crimes. In addition, longer duration typhoons increase the immediate rates of all violent crimes, automobile thefts and muggings while decreasing the rate of burglaries. In the long run, we find that typhoon intensity, duration and landfall have persistent, lagged effects on crime that vary from negative to positive. For example, strong-intensity typhoons have significantly negative lagged effects on crimes 3–5 months in the future but positive lagged effects on crimes in future months 6–9. Finally, projections under the IPCC climate change scenarios show all violent crimes will increase.     

The geochemistry and provenance of Apollo 16 mafic glasses

The regolith of the Apollo 16 lunar landing site is composed mainly of feldspathic lithologies but mafic lithologies are also present. A large proportion of the mafic material occurs as glass. We determined the major element composition of 280 mafic glasses (>10 wt% FeO) from six different Apollo 16 soil samples. A small proportion (5%) of the glasses are of volcanic origin with picritic compositions. Most, however, are of impact origin. Approximately half of the mafic impact glasses are of basaltic composition and half are of noritic composition with high concentrations of incompatible elements. A small fraction have compositions consistent with impact mixtures of mare material and material of the feldspathic highlands. On the basis of major-element chemistry, we identified six mafic glass groups: VLT picritic glass, low-Ti basaltic glass, high-Ti basaltic glass, high-Al basaltic glass, KREEPy glass, and basaltic-andesite glass. These glass groups encompass 60% of the total mafic glasses studied. Trace-element analyses by secondary ion mass spectroscopy for representative examples of each glass group (31 total analyses) support the major-element classifications and groupings. The lack of basaltic glass in Apollo 16 ancient regolith breccias, which provide snapshots of the Apollo 16 soil just after the infall of Imbrium ejecta, leads us to infer that most (if not all) of the basaltic glass was emplaced as ejecta from small- or moderate-sized impacts into the maria surrounding the Apollo 16 site after the Imbrium impact. The high-Ti basaltic glasses likely represent a new type of basalt from Mare Tranquillitatis, whereas the low-Ti and high-Al basaltic glasses possibly represent the composition of the basalts in Mare Nectaris. Both the low-Ti and high-Al basaltic glasses are enriched in light-REEs, which hints at the presence of a KREEP-bearing source region beneath Mare Nectaris. The basaltic andesite glasses have compositions that are siliceous, ferroan, alkali-rich, and moderately titaniferous; they are unlike any previously recognized lunar lithology or glass group. Their likely provenance is within the Procellarum KREEP Terrane, but they are not found within the Apollo 16 ancient regolith breccias and therefore were likely deposited at the Apollo 16 site post-Imbrium. The basaltic-andesite glasses are the most ferroan variety of KREEP yet discovered.     

纳米级微粒地球化学测量中异常重现性研究

纳米级微粒测量是寻找隐伏矿的新方法,选取实地模拟实验和在已知隐伏矿区,利用液态捕集剂和等离子体质谱分析测试样品,进行重复测量试验,研究结果表明,不同成矿元素,在地表形成异常的运移富集速率不同,其运移速率主要取决于纳米级微粒本身的地球化学性质,地下上升气流、断裂等裂隙有利于微粒的上升运移富集;纳米级微粒地球化学重复测量时,异常可具有良好的重现性,但异常重现较常规气体缓慢,通常需要2~3个月。     

Effects of the 'Prestige' oil spill on macroalgal assemblages: large-scale comparison

An assessment of the effects of the 'Prestige' oil spill on intertidal, macroalgal assemblages was carried out comparing abundance data obtained before and after the spill. Four zones in the North and Northwest coast of Spain were sampled, one of them located at the immediate vicinity of the spill, the zone most heavily oiled. Macroalgal assemblages had similar structure between years. Neither critical decrease in abundance of the dominant macroalgae, nor increase in opportunistic species were found. Some differences in abundance were observed, but they did not show any pattern, being more likely the result of the natural variability of the assemblage. Extensive, but not intense fuel deposition on the shores and a limited use of aggressive cleanup methods are suggested as possible causes for the lack of the effects in these assemblages after the 'Prestige' oil spill.     

High-precision geoid determination in small areas: A case study in Doñana National Park (Spain)

Doñana National Park is an area of approximately 500 km² located on the SW coast of Spain that shows one of the greatest geoid gradients on the entire Iberian Peninsula, due to its peculiar tectonic characteristics. So, it is necessary to elaborate an accurate geoid model that can be used with GPS for precise surveying, since the existing ones are insufficient, due to their poor resolution and their limited adaptation to a small area with such a strong gradient. The least squares prediction method was tested in order to obtain the undulation from GPS/orthometric points. The results obtained were unsatisfactory because of the strong geoid gradient. In order to improve accuracy the remove-restore technique was used. Global geopotential model EIGEN-CG01C and a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) with a 25 × 25 m resolution and an accuracy better than 3 m were used. Thus, the final geometrical geoid obtained reaches the precision required by other disciplines (3 cm in any point within the Park). Particularly, the geoid model has allowed for the acquisition of a precision DEM that is essential to formulate a hydrodynamic model for the Doñana marsh functions.     

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation: Applications to stability,sensitivity, and predictability

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is a nonlinear generalization of linear singular vector (LSV) and features the largest nonlinear evolution at prediction time for the initial perturbations in a given constraint. It was proposed initially for predicting the limitation of predictability of weather or climate. Then CNOP has been applied to the studies of the problems related to predictability for weather and climate. In this paper, we focus on reviewing the recent advances of CNOP’s applications, which involves the ones of CNOP in problems of ENSO amplitude asymmetry, block onset, and the sensitivity analysis of ecosystem and ocean’s circulations, etc. Especially, CNOP has been primarily used to construct the initial perturbation fields of ensemble forecasting, and to determine the sensitive area of target observation for precipitations. These works extend CNOP’s applications to investigating the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of atmospheric or oceanic systems, even a coupled system, and studying the problem of the transition between the equilibrium states. These contributions not only attack the particular physical problems, but also show the superiority of CNOP to LSV in revealing the effect of nonlinear physical processes. Consequently, CNOP represents the optimal precursors for a weather or climate event; in predictability studies, CNOP stands for the initial error that has the largest negative effect on prediction; and in sensitivity analysis, CNOP is the most unstable (sensitive) mode. In multi-equilibrium state regime, CNOP is the initial perturbation that induces the transition between equilibriums most probably. Furthermore, CNOP has been used to construct ensemble perturbation fields in ensemble forecast studies and to identify sensitive area of target observation. CNOP theory has become more and more substantial. It is expected that CNOP also serves to improve the predictability of the realistic predictions for weather and climate events plays an increasingly important role in exploring the nonlinear dynamics of atmospheric, oceanic and coupled atmosphere-ocean system. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2006CB403606, 2007CB411800), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40830955, 40675030, 40505013), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. IAP07202), and LASG State Key Laboratory Special Fund     

Sobre el caracter general de la clasificacion de las bahias geomagneticas y su ley de aparicion durante el dia

Summary A comparative study of the geomagnetic bays at the Observatories of Cuajimalpa and Teoloyucan (Mexico) and Tortosa, shows: 1) that the grouping of the bays into a certain number of fundamental types, and that the tendency of their frequency maxima to recur in a cyclical order during the day, are general features of geomagnetic bays, at least for all middle geomagnetic latitudes; 2) that the relative importance of the different types and the hour of their maxima varies according to the geomagnetic latitude of the Observatory where the bays are recorded.

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Résumé En comparant les baies géomagnétiques enregistrées aux Observatoires de Cuajimalpa et Teoloyucan (Mexique) avec celles observées à Tortosa, on examine la validité générale de la classification des baies établie à l'Observatoire de l'Ebre et de la loi de succession des différents types le long du jour. L'on arrive aux conclusions suivantes: 1^o La classification des baies géomagnétiques en un certain nombre de types fondamentaux, de même que la tendence à l'apparition de leurs maxima de fréquence dans un ordre cyclique pendant la journée, a un caractère général, tout au moins pour les latitudes géomagnétiques moyennes; 2^o L'importance relative des différents types et l'heure d'apparition de leurs maxima varie d'un Observatoire à l'autre, d'après leur latitude géomagnétique.

     

Seasonal patterns of suspended sediment load and erosion-transport assessment in a Mediterranean basin

ABSTRACT

To assess seasonal patterns of suspended sediment load and its erosion–transport interactions, 17 years of river monitoring data from the Isser River Basin (northwest Algeria) were studied, considering continuous and event-scale approaches. The results show significant differences in sediment yield and transport processes between dry and wet periods. A rate of 8 t ha^?1 year^?1 was estimated from continuous analysis, with values of 4.3 and 13 t ha^?1 year^?1 for wet and dry periods, respectively. Estimates of soil delivery ratio pointed to higher values during dry periods and the dominance of hillslope erosion processes. At the event scale, the hysteresis loops confirmed these seasonal patterns in transport dynamics. The calibration of the MUSLE model highlighted the severity of rainfall during the dry period. These results emphasize the importance of seasonality in erosion and transport processes with special relevance in terms of climate change predictions.