Persian Gulf response to a wintertime shamal wind event

The results from a～1 km resolution HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), forced by 1/2° Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) atmospheric data, were used in order to study the dynamic response of the Persian Gulf to wintertime shamal forcing. Shamal winds are strong northwesterly winds that occur in the Persian Gulf area behind southeast moving cold fronts. The period from 20 November to 5 December 2004 included a well defined shamal event that lasted 4–5 days. In addition to strong winds (16 m s^?1) the winter shamal also brought cold dry air (T_a=20 °C, q_a=10 g kg^?1) which led to a net heat loss in excess of 1000 W m^?2 by increasing the latent heat flux. This resulted in SST cooling of up to 10 °C most notably in the northern and shallower shelf regions. A sensitivity experiment with a constant specific humidity of q_a=15 g kg^?1 confirmed that about 38% of net heat loss was due to the air–sea humidity differences. The time integral of SST cooling closely followed the air–sea heat loss, indicating an approximate one-dimensional vertical heat balance. It was found that the shamal induced convective vertical mixing provided a direct mechanism for the erosion of stratification and deepening of the mixed layer by 30 m. The strong wind not only strengthened the circulation in the entire Persian Gulf but also established a northwestward flowing Iranian Coastal Current (ICC, 25–30 cm s^?1) from the Strait of Hormuz to about 52°E, where it veered offshore. The strongest negative sea level of 25–40 cm was generated in the northernmost portion of the Gulf while the wind setup against the coast of the United Arab Emirates established a positive sea level of 15–30 cm. The transport through the Strait of Hormuz at 56.2°E indicated an enhanced outflow of 0.25 Sv (Sv≡10⁶ m³ s^?1) during 24 November followed by an equivalent inflow on the next day.     

Terminal velocities of pure and hydrate coated CO2 droplets and CH4 bubbles rising in a simulated oceanic environment

Understanding the upward motion of CO₂ droplets or CH₄ bubbles in oceanic waters is prerequisite to predict the vertical distribution of the two most important greenhouse gases in the water column after these have been released from the seabed. One of the key parameters governing the fate of droplets or bubbles dissolving into the surrounding seawater as they rise, is the terminal velocity, u_T. The latter is strongly influenced by the ability of both compounds to form skins of gas hydrate, if pressure and temperature satisfy thermodynamic framework conditions. Experimental efforts aiming to elucidate the rise properties of CO₂ droplets and CH₄ bubbles and specifically the influence of hydrate skins open the possibility to obtain a parameterization of u_T applicable to both hydrate-coated and pure fluid particles of CH₄ and CO₂. With the present study, we report on experimentally determined terminal velocities of single CH₄ bubbles released to pressurized and temperature-regulated seawater. Hydrate skins were identified by high bubble sphericities and changed motion characteristics. Based on these experiments as well as published data on the rise of hydrate-coated and pure liquid CO₂ droplets and physical principles previously successfully used for clean bubbles near atmospheric pressures, a new parameterization of u_T is proposed. Model predictions show a good agreement with the data base established from the laboratory-based measurements.     

Authigenic carbonates from the eastern Black Sea as an archive for shallow gas hydrate dynamics – Results from the combination of CT imaging with mineralogical and stable isotope analyses

Authigenic carbonates associated with cold seeps provide valuable archives of changes in the long-term seepage activity. To investigate the role of shallow-buried hydrates on the seepage strength and fluid composition we analysed methane-derived carbonate precipitates from a high-flux hydrocarbon seepage area (“Batumi seep area”) located on the south-eastern Black Sea slope in ca. 850 m. In a novel approach, we combined computerized X-ray tomography (CT) with mineralogical and isotope geochemical methods to get additional insights into the three-dimensional internal structure of the carbonate build-ups.     

Open-system chemical behavior in deep Wilcox Group mudstones,Texas Gulf Coast,USA

Wilcox Group mudstones have been mechanically and geochemically transformed over a temperature range of 20–200 °C. Our research controlled for provenance and age by sampling from five wells, parallel to the paleodepositional axis, all within the Houston delta system. Across the sampled depths, mudstone porosity has been reduced from ∼25 to <10% and bulk mineralogical change as documented by quantitative X-ray diffraction includes decreases in quartz, K-feldspar and kaolinite content whereas illite + illite − smectite, chlorite, and plagioclase increase. These mineral transformations transfer elements at a scale of less than 1 mm from one mineralogical form to another, however, X-ray fluorescence data suggest that among major elements only Al₂O₃ and TiO₂ are fully conserved within the system (trace-element ZrO₂ is also conserved). K₂O has been added to and SiO₂ released from the Wilcox Group mudstones. Cathodoluminescence and secondary electron imaging did not find this SiO₂ locally precipitated. We, therefore, document an open-system geochemical behavior.     

Effect of atmospheric CO2 and solar activity on wind regime and water column stability in the major global upwelling areas

It is not clear whether global warming will favour or reduce global ocean phytoplankton productivity in coastal areas. Moreover, the relative contributions made by natural and/or anthropogenic factors to possible changes in phytoplankton productivity are not clear. As the relationship between primary production and alongshore wind forcing is well established for the Eastern Boundary Current (EBC) ecosystems, our aim is to determine whether the changes experienced over the last five decades (1958–2007) in atmospheric CO₂ and solar activity have been able to affect the wind regime and water column stability in the most biologically productive upwelling areas of California, Canary, Humboldt and Benguela. We approached the work by statistically studying the effect of solar activity and atmospheric CO₂ on surface alongshore wind stress and on water column stability. There was an increasing trend in wind stress and water column stability in all the upwelling areas over the period studied (with the single exception of stability in the California EBC system). The analysis of detrended series evidenced significant relationships between atmospheric CO₂ concentration and wind stress and water column stability in the coastal upwelling areas investigated. In addition, wind stress and stability data were found to be consistent, with negative linear relationships between wind stress and CO₂ in most of the sites in the Benguela, Canary and Humboldt regions associated, as expected, to positive relationships when water column stability is used as regressand. The results of the present study suggest that greenhouse gas forcing, independent of its well known general increasing trend, was able to decrease wind stress intensity and increase water column stability for the period 1958 to present in most of the sites of the four Eastern Boundary Ecosystems studied, with the one exception of the California region. Conversely, the impact of solar activity appeared to be quite low compared to the greenhouse gas forcing.     

Rational noncompliance and the liquidation of Northeast groundfish resources

The results of a 2007 survey of fishers, managers, scientists, and enforcement officials indicate that noncompliance is a significant problem in the Northeast multispecies groundfish (NEGF) fishery, as it has been for at least 20 years. The percent of total harvest taken illegally is estimated to be 12–24%, which is significantly higher than estimates of 6–14% in the 1980s. Thirty-seven percent of fishers, 61% of fishery managers and 80% of fishery enforcement staff believe that “the combined adverse impact of all violations on the health and manageability of fish resources” is significant, highly significant, or extremely significant. Many fishers believe that illegal fishing will prevent them from ever benefiting from stock rebuilding programs.     

pT-effects of Pleistocene glacial periods on permafrost,gas hydrate stability zones and reservoir of the Mittelplate oil field,northern Germany

During the past two million years low surface temperatures as well as episodically advancing ice sheets from Scandinavia acted on the subsurface pT-regime of northern Germany. Their likely effects on the petroleum system of Schleswig-Holstein were investigated. For the entire Quaternary mean annual ground temperature (MAGT) was reconstructed at a resolution of 1000 years by calibrating oxygen isotope records from ODP-site 659 to the climate of northern Germany of the past 120 kyr. The resulting MAGT trend served as input to an ice sheet model and a permafrost model along a 2D section crossing the petroleum bearing south-western part of Schleswig-Holstein. Here advances and retreats of the Scandinavian ice sheet during Saalian and Elsterian glaciation Stages were reconstructed. Maximum ice thicknesses of up to 1700 m and up to 20 periods of regional permafrost in northern Germany were reconstructed for the past 1.25 million years. Based on a basal heat flow of 50 mW/m² permafrost thicknesses exceeded 100 m during most of these periods, temporarily extending down to depths of more than 300 m. Favourable surface temperatures and long durations of cold periods provided favourable conditions for onshore gas hydrate stability zones at Mittelplate. Implementing these glacial dynamics into 2D basin modelling (PetroMod, IES, Aachen, Germany) of the Mittelplate oil field reveals five phases of gas hydrate stability at depths down to 750 m. The latest of these events occurred during the Weichselian about 20 kyr ago. The effect of the ice sheets on pore pressure in the subsurface strongly depends on the hydraulic boundary conditions at the ice base (e.g. frozen vs. temperate ice sheet base). Excess pore pressure in the reservoir of more than 10 MPa during ice overriding is possible and probable. The calculated temperature effect of the Pleistocene cooling on the Mittelplate reservoir is in the range of 3–7 °C. Even today temperature in the reservoir is still lowered by about 4 °C in comparison to pre-Pleistocene times. Despite the fact that a significant influence of glacial effects on petroleum generation can be ruled out at Mittelplate, we state that pT-effects in reservoirs related to glacial processes in formerly glaciated areas have been underestimated in the past.     

Quadrature-based approach for the efficient evaluation of surge hazard

The Joint Probability Method (JPM) has been used for hurricane surge frequency analysis for over three decades, and remains the method of choice owing to the limitations of more direct historical methods. However, use of the JPM approach in conjunction with the modern generation of complex high-resolution numerical models (used to describe winds, waves, and surge) has become highly inefficient, owing to the large number of costly storm simulations that are typically required. This paper describes a new approach to the selection of the storm simulation set that permits reduction of the JPM computational effort by about an order of magnitude (compared to a more conventional approach) while maintaining good accuracy. The method uses an integration scheme called Bayesian or Gaussian-process quadrature (together with conventional integration methods) to evaluate the multi-dimensional joint probability integral over the space of storm parameters (pressure, radius, speed, heading, and any others found to be important) as a weighted summation over a relatively small set of optimally selected nodes (synthetic storms). Examples of an application of the method are shown, drawn from the recent post-Katrina study of coastal Mississippi.     

Analysis of the economic benefits associated with the recovery of threatened marine mammal species in the Canadian St. Lawrence Estuary

This paper examines Canadians' willingness to pay to recover the populations of three marine mammal species found in the St Lawrence Estuary. The valuation approach utilized a stated preference tool that is somewhat a hybrid between contingent valuation and a choice experiment with multiple species recovery program options and choices framed as referenda. Program options involved the use of a marine protected area and restrictions on whale watching and shipping industries. The estimated willingness to pay (WTP) for different levels of marine mammal recovery ranged from $77 to $229 per year per household and varied according to the species affected and the recovery program effort. A series of tests revealed that people would be willing to pay more for programs that contribute to greater increases in marine mammal populations, but the additional value of programs that improve a species status beyond the “at risk” threshold is relatively small.     

Applicability of Individual Transferable Quotas (ITQs) in Japanese fisheries: A comparison of rights-based fisheries management in Iceland, Japan, and United States

ITQs have not yet been introduced by the Government of Japan. In coastal areas, fishery cooperative associations have traditionally played an important role in managing fisheries through self-imposed rules and peer-monitoring systems. Recently, however, the economic competitiveness of Japanese fisheries in the international market is being questioned. In this paper, a detailed examination of the pros and cons of the current system in Japan is compared to the current fishery management measures of Iceland and the United States, where attaining economically or biologically efficient outcomes may be prioritized in making fisheries management decisions. For many coastal fisheries in Japan, maintaining a management scheme in which stakeholders play an active role in determining fisheries measures seems more relevant if their priority is to maintain the stability of coastal communities and equity of stakeholders. Intensive dialog among stakeholders would be necessary to identify shared objectives of their fishery operations and to make decisions to establish specific steps toward the goal of increasing economic efficiency, environmental sustainability, or stability of communities and equity of stakeholders.