"10.19"全州冰雹的中小尺度分析

用天气学方法对1997年10月19日全州县境内出现的一场历史上罕见的冰雹过程的中小尺度进行分析,揭示这次过程的一些机制,为掌握冰雹发生前中小尺度系统的活动和演变规律积累经验,对提高今后的预报服务能力将有所帮助.     

Taylor定理余项中θ的渐近性和拓广

给出带有m-1项断裂项n+m阶Taylor定理余项中θ的渐近估计,其估计式为 .利用该估计式将Taylor定理推广为 ,其中余项 .最后举例说明该推广在近似计算中的优越性。     

广西1997年气候影响评价

１９９７年度（１９９６年１２月至１９９７年１１月）,广西各地年平均气温１６．６～２３．３℃,属正常;年降水量１２５９．５～２８２５．３ｍｍ,正常到偏多２～５成;年日照时数８５２．８～２１３９．３ｈ,大部地区比常年偏少２００～５００ｈ。１９９７年度,广西主要气候事件及其影响以洪涝和寒露风最为突出,其次是大风和冬旱;日照不足,降水偏多,洪涝及寒露风灾害严重,全年气候条件对工农业生产的影响弊多利少,属偏差年景。     

海河流域夏季旱涝长期天气过程的分析

本文以海河流域15个测站1951—1976年6—8月的降水量确定夏季旱涝年份。用500毫巴欧亚月平均图分析旱涝年的平均环流特征,发现:具有明显的差别。采用西风指数结合西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)西伸脊点,概括得到夏季旱涝型,并揭示亚洲中、高纬西风分布具有一定的稳定性。夏季旱涝的环流特征在春季就有所反映。给出了一些可供长期预报参考的指标。 通过最近三年实况的检验,证明对于海河流域夏季旱涝的西风指数型是可用的,其前期指标是有预报参考价值的。     

呼伦贝尔草原大气浑浊度的测量和尘埃输送的初步探讨

利用相对日射表和玻璃滤光片,于1974—76年的4—7月份在呼伦贝尔草原进行了大气浑浊度的测量。根据测量结果,研究了半干旱草原尘埃输送的特性。通过不同测点的对比,分析了草原开垦对尘埃输送的影响。     

Sediment transport for desert watersheds in erodible materials

Sediment transport for five small watersheds in arid southern Israel, eroded into shales, chalks, anhydrites and alluvium is studied. Analysis includes data from three large watersheds in the southern United States. Results indicate that floodwater heavily laden with suspended load (10-60 per cent, by weight) is characteristic of watersheds cut in erodible materials. No correlation was found between environmental characteristics such as lithology, catchment area, angle of slope or rainfall intensity and suspended-sediment concentration or texture. The carrying capacity for sands, derived both from hillslopes and channel alluvium is greatly increased by high suspended silt concentration, the trend being (where R = ratio, % fines/% sand; C_s = suspended load concentration, per cent by weight). The high concentration of fine sediment effectively causes more sand transport than would normally occur. This is also true for transport of coarser clastics; higher velocities, typical of highly concentrated silt suspensions, increased competence for transporting pebbles and boulders. The action of a large variety of processes (splash, wash, rilling, gullying, sliding, mudflow) combine with low infiltration and high credibility to render every rainstorm erosionally effective, and high concentrations of washload increase both the capacity and competence of coarse clastic transport. Whole basins are thus subjected to high rates of denudation (2-10 mm/yr).     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

Spatial pattern of rural settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River

A quantitative analysis of the spatial pattern of rural settlements in the upper reaches of the Minjiang River was made with the major data sources being the relevant ETM image and the national geographical database of China (including contour line, river and road) at the scale of 1:250 000, and using image interpretation and field investigation to obtain spatial information on rural settlements. The results of the spatial analysis technique of GIS and correlation analysis showed that most settlements (78.2 %) were located in the mountain area at 1500 ∼ 2700 m altitude, and almost half in the arid valley area. More than 80.0 % of settlements had their slopes above 15°. Most settlements had good access to water resources, roads and communications, and tended to cluster close to the road network rather than the river. About half of the rural settlements in the study area were relatively concentrated, while the others were decentralized. Those with higher altitude usually had land with steep slope, inconvenient water and road accesses, and were located far apart from each other. In view of such a situation, further research should be done to make reasonable countermeasures on these settlements for better living conditions and ecosystem stability.     

Meander hydrodynamics initiated by river restoration deflectors

River restoration projects have installed j‐hook deflectors along the outer bank of meander bends to reduce hydraulic erosion, and in this study we use a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model to document how these deflectors initiate changes in meander hydrodynamics. We validated the CFD with streamwise and cross‐channel bankfull velocities from a 193° meander bend flume (inlet at 0°) with a fixed point bar and pool equilibrium bed but no j‐hooks, and then used the CFD to simulate changes to flow initiated by bank‐attached boulder j‐hooks (1^st attached at 70°, then a 2^nd at 160°). At bankfull and half bankfull flow the j‐hooks flattened transverse water surface slopes, formed backwater pools upstream of the boulders, and steepened longitudinal water slopes across the boulders and in the conveyance region off the mid‐channel boulder tip. Streamwise velocity and mass transport jets upstream of the j‐hooks were stilled, mid‐channel jets were initiated in the conveyance region, eddies with a cross‐channel axis formed below boulders, and eddies with a vertical axis were shed into wake zones downstream of the point bar and outer bank boulders. At half bankfull depth conveyance region flow cut toward the outer bank downstream of the j‐hook boulders and the secondary circulation cells were reshaped. At bankfull depth the j‐hook at 160° was needed to redirect bank‐impinging flow sent by the upstream j‐hook. The hooked boulder tip of both j‐hooks funneled surface flow into mid‐channel plunging jets, which reversed the secondary circulation cells and initiated 1 to 3 counter rotating cells through the entire meander. The main outer bank collision zone centered at 50° without the j‐hook was moved by the j‐hook to within and just beyond the 70° j‐hook boulder region, which displaced other mass transport zones downstream. J‐hooks re‐organized water surface slopes, streamwise and cross‐channel velocities, and mass transport patterns, to move shear stress from the outer bank and into the conveyance and mid‐channel zones at bankfull flow. At half bankfull flows a patch of high shear re‐attached to the outer bank below the downstream j‐hook. J‐hook geometry and placement within natural meanders can be analyzed with CFD models to help restoration teams reach design goals and understand hydraulic impacts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.