How long is coal's future?

Nearly all scenarios for future U.S. energy supply systems show heavy dependence on coal. The magnitude depends on assumptions as to reliance on nuclear fission, degree of electrification, and rate of GNP growth, and ranges from 700 million tons to 2300 million tons per year. However, potential climate change resulting from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations may prevent coal from playing a major role. The carbon in the carbon dioxide produced from fossil fuels each year is about 1/10 the net primary production by terrestrial plants, but the fossil fuel production has been growing exponentially at 4.3% per year. Observed atmospheric CO₂ concentrations have increased from 315 ppm in 1958 to 330 ppm in 1974 - in 1900, before much fossil fuel was burned, it was about 290–295 ppm. Slightly over one-half the CO₂ released from fossil fuels is accounted for by the increase observed in the atmosphere; at present growth rates the quantities are doubling every 15–18 years. Atmospheric models suggest a global warming of about 2 K if the concentration were to rise to two times its pre-1900 value - enough to change the global climate in major (but largely unknown) ways. With the current rate of increase in fossil fuel use, the atmospheric concentration should reach these levels by about 2030. A shift to coal as a replacement for oil and gas gives more carbon dioxide per unit of energy; thus if energy growth continues with a concurrent shift toward coal, high concentrations can be reached somewhat earlier. Even projections with very heavy reliance on non-fossil energy (Neihaus) after 2000 show atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reaching 475 ppm.First presented to the symposium, Coal Science and our National Expectations, Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Boston, Massachusetts, February 20, 1976.     

Fluorine in meteorites

Microanalysis using a resonant nuclear reaction was used to measure F concentrations in USGS standard rocks and 21 meteorites. The F appears to be a moderately depleted element, but there were significant variations within each sample. Measurements on separated metal phases suggest that about 20% of meteoritic F is in the metal or in a phase closely associated with it. Simultaneous measurements of F, Mg, Na, Al and Si in the non-magnetic fractions of meteorites suggest plagioclase as a F containing phase.     

Some models for the rate of crystallization of garnet in metamorphic rocks

Information on the form of the equation for the rate of crystallization of garnet in metamorphic rocks may be obtained by combining an expression for the rate of crystal growth, obtained from data on compositional zoning, with an expression for the rate of nucleation, obtained from the crystal-size distribution.Three models for the rate of crystal growth and four for the rate of nucleation are formulated, and these, in different combinations, give rise to ten models for the rate of crystallization. Considerable variation in the form of the growth and nucleation equations produces a relatively small variation in the form of the equation for the rate of crystallization. In the favoured crystallization models, the volume of garnet produced in unit volume of rock is a function of time raised to the power m, where m lies between 3.5 and 5.     

Extreme Nd isotopic variation in the Trinity Ophiolite Complex and the role of melt/rock reactions in the oceanic lithosphere

 Peridotites, dykes and gabbros from the 470–420 Ma Trinity Ophiolite Complex of northern California exhibit large geochemical rare earth element (REE) and Nd isotopic variations on the small scales which are indicative of a complex history. The Trinity Ophiolite, which covers an area of ≈1600 km², consists of three distinct units: (1) a ∼2–4 km-thick sheet of plastically deformed peridotites, including various ultrabasic lithologies (plagioclase and spinel lherzolite, harzburgite, wherlite and dunite); the peridotite unit is a fragment of mantle lithosphere of oceanic affinity; (2) a series of small (∼1 km diameter) undeformed gabbroic massifs; (3) several generations of basic dykes. The peridotites display the largest geochemical and isotopic variations, with ɛ_Nd(T) values ranging from +10 down to 0. In the gabbroic massifs and intrusive dykes, the variation in model ɛ_Nd(T) values is reduced to 7 ɛ_Nd units: 0 to +7. As a general rule, peridotites, gabbros and dykes with ɛ_Nd(T) values around 0 or +3 give less depleted L(light)REE patterns than do those with ɛ_Nd(T) values in the range +7 to +10. In the peridotites, the Nd isotopic variations take place over very short distances, with jumps as large as 7 ɛ_Nd units occurring on scales of less than 20 m. Comparison with available age data indicates that the peridotites with ɛ_Nd(T)≈+10 could be slightly older than the intrusive gabbro massifs and basic dykes (470 Ma vs. 420 Ma). Strontium isotopic data used in connection with Sm-Nd results demonstrate that the 10 ɛ_Nd units variation displayed by the Trinity Peridotite is a primary feature and not an artefact due to REE mobility during seawater interaction. The variable Nd isotopic signatures and variable LREE patterns in the Trinity Peridotite cannot represent mantle source characteristics as there is evidence that this unit was partially melted when it rose as part of the upwelling convecting mantle. Field, petrographic, geochemical and isotopic data rather suggest that the observed heterogeneity is due to local reactions between a 470 Ma proto-peridotite with ɛ_Nd(T)=+10 and younger (420 Ma) basaltic melts with lower ɛ_Nd(T) values (i.e. the gabbroic massifs and the dykes). The gabbros and basic dykes of the Trinity Complex have geochemical and isotopic compositions similar to the arc basalts from the adjacent Copley Formation, so it is proposed that the younger melts are related to arc magmatism. Received: 13 January 1995/Accepted 5 May 1995     

Phase relationship between sea level and abrupt climate change

Direct traces of past sea levels are based on the elevation of old coral reefs at times of sea level highstands. However, these measurements are discontinuous and cannot be easily correlated with climate records from ice cores. In this study we show a new approach to recognizing the imprint of sea level changes in continuous sediment records taken from the continental slope at locations that were continuously submerged, even during periods of sea level lowstand. By using a sediment core precisely synchronized with Greenland ice cores, we were able to recognize major floods of the Mediterranean continental shelf over the past 270 kyr. During the last glacial period five flooding events were observed at the onset of the warmest Greenland interstadials. Consistent correspondence between warm climate episodes and eustatic sea level rises shows that these global flooding events were generated by pronounced melting of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets, due to rapid intensification of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.The method described in this study opens a new perspective for inter-hemispheric synchronization of marine climate records if applied in other continental margins from the Southern Hemisphere or the equatorial regions.     

Titan's Snowline

We show that the “snowline” altitude on Titan, above which the condensed nonideal methane-nitrogen phase is solid, is lower (∼14 km) near the equator than at high latitudes (∼19 km). This counterintuitive result derives from the thermodynamic behavior of the binary condensate. The snowline altitude is an operating constraint on future Titan missions where icing would pose a ceiling on atmospheric flight. These snowline altitudes are higher than likely topography, suggesting that optically bright regions on Titan are not due to veneering caused by methane frost deposition.