Recent Advances in Prediction and Processing of Strong Ground Motions

We present an overview of our recent results on utilizing small earthquakes in the earthquake engineering practice. Site-specific ground motion time-histories of large earthquakes can be successfully simulated using recordings of small earthquakes which are often referred to as 'empirical Green's functions' in seismology. Another important practical problem is whether and how these observations can be used in seismic risk studies which are based on empirical attenuation relations for ground motion parameters. We study a possibility of extrapolating attenuation relations for small earthquakes, to larger magnitudes using the data from the Garner Valley downhole array in Southern California. Finally we introduce efficient ground motion processing techniques in frequency- and time-domains and apply them to site response estimation.     

An Algorithm for the Determination of All Significant Pathways in Chemical Reaction Systems

When the output of a complex chemical model is analysed, a typical topic isthe determination of pathways, i.e., reaction sequences, that produce ordestroy a chemical species of interest.A representative example is the investigation of catalytic ozone destruction cycles in the stratosphere.An algorithm for the automatic determination of pathways in any given reactionsystem is presented. Under the assumption that reaction rates are known, it finds all significant pathways, i.e., all pathways with a rate above a prescribed threshold.The algorithm forms pathways step by step, starting from single reactions.The chemical species in the system are consecutively considered as `branching points'.For every branching-point species, each pathway producing it is connected witheach pathway consuming it.Rates proportional to `branching probabilities' are calculated.Pathways with a rate that is smaller than a prescribed threshold arediscarded.If a newly formed pathway contains sub-pathways, e.g., null cycles, it is split into these simpler pathways.In order to demonstrate the performance of the algorithm, it has been applied to the determination of catalytic ozone destruction cycles and methaneoxidation pathways in the stratosphere.     

Linear discriminant analysis to describe the relationship between rainfall and landslides in Bogotá, Colombia

Bogotá is located in the central Andean region of Colombia, which is frequently affected by landslide processes. These processes are mostly triggered during the rainy season in the city. This fact remarks the importance of determining what rain-derived parameters (e.g. intensity, antecedent rain, daily rain) are better related with the occurrence of landslides. For this purpose, the linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a technique derived from multivariate statistics, was used. The application of this type of analysis led to obtain simple mathematical functions that represent the probability of occurrence of landslides in Bogotá. The functions also allow to identify the most relevant variables derived from records of rainfall linked to the generation of landslides. A proof of concept using the proposed methodology was done using historic rainfall data from a 9-km² area of homogenous climatology and geomorphology in the south part of Bogotá. Landslides needed to be grouped for the LDA. Each one of these grouping categories represents landslides that occurred in similar geomorphologic conditions. Another set of events with no landslides was generated synthetically. Results of the proof of concept show that rainfall parameters such as normalized rainfall intensity I _MAP, normalized daily rainfall R _MAP and rainy-days normal RDN have the best statistical correlation with the landslides observed in the zone of analysis.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

New UV-source catalogs,UV spectral database,UV variables and science tools from the GALEX surveys

We present a new, expanded and improved catalog of Ultraviolet (UV) sources from the GALEX All-Sky Imaging survey: GUVcat_AIS (Bianchi et al. in Astrophys. J. Suppl. Ser. 230:24, 2017). The catalog includes 83 million unique sources (duplicate measurements and rim artifacts are removed) measured in far-UV and near-UV. With respect to previous versions (Bianchi et al. in Mon. Not. R. Astron. Soc. 411:2770 2011a, Adv. Space Res. 53:900–991, 2014), GUVcat_AIS covers a slightly larger area, 24,790 square degrees, and includes critical corrections and improvements, as well as new tags, in particular to identify sources in the footprint of extended objects, where pipeline source detection may fail and custom-photometry may be necessary. The UV unique-source catalog facilitates studies of density of sources, and matching of the UV samples with databases at other wavelengths.We also present first results from two ongoing projects, addressing respectively UV variability searches on time scales from seconds to years by mining the GALEX photon archive, and the construction of a database of ～120,000 GALEX UV spectra (range ～1300–3000 Å), including quality and calibration assessment and classification of the grism, hence serendipitous, spectral sources.     

Performance of community-based coastal resource management (CBCRM) programs in the Philippines: A meta-analysis

Community-based coastal resource management (CBCRM) is a major conservation and fisheries management strategy in the tropics. In this study, the performance of 16 CBCRM programs in the Philippines was assessed using a meta-analysis of eight indicators that represented the perceptions of local resource users. Overall, the CBCRM programs in the Philippines were perceived to have a significant positive impact. However, the performance of each of the indicators was mixed. Although the CBCRM programs were perceived to be effective in empowering the local fishing communities, their perceived impact on improving the state of the local fisheries resources remained limited. This highlights the importance of incorporating ecological and socio-economic considerations in setting fisheries management regimes.     

A well‐established Early–Middle Pleistocene marine sequence on south‐east Zakynthos island,western Greece: Magneto‐biostratigraphic constraints and palaeoclimatic implications

The chronostratigraphy of a long, onshore Early–Middle Pleistocene marine sedimentary sequence on the south‐east part of Zakynthos island, Greece, is presented. Correlation of the succession with the isotope record of Ocean Drilling Program Site 963 reveals the combined influence of tectonics and eustacy in this area. The sequence is divided into three formations by two main unconformities that apparently relate to sea‐level lowstands associated with two major northern hemisphere glaciations, those of marine isotope stages (MIS) 22 and 12. The Zakynthos sequence in many ways is comparable with the Italian Valle di Manche section. Magnetostratigraphic and rock magnetic analyses, supported by biostratigraphy, document the position of the Matuyama/Brunhes Chron boundary (0.77 Ma), the top and base of the Jaramillo Subchron (0.99–1.07 Ma), the Cobb Mountain Subchron (1.173–1.185 Ma) and the top of the Olduvai Subchron (1.78 Ma). The underlying strata are constrained exclusively by detailed nannofossil biostratigraphy extending at least to the lowermost Pleistocene at around 2.54 Ma and therefore certainly incorporating the base of the Olduvai Subchron (1.95 Ma) and possibly the Gauss/Matuyama Chron boundary (2.58 Ma). In addition, a remarkable increase in sedimentation rate (from 3.2 and 28 cm ka^?1 to 167 cm ka^?1) and hence resolution above the Matuyama/Brunhes boundary (Middle Pleistocene) reveals one short‐lived magnetic excursion, possibly 17a (0.66 Ma), within the normal polarity Brunhes Chron. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.