Identification of extreme storm surges with high-impact potential along the German North Sea coastline

Planning and design of coastal protection rely on information about the probabilities of very severe storm tides and the possible changes that may occur in the course of climate change. So far, this information is mostly provided in the form of high percentiles obtained from frequency distributions or return values. More detailed information and assessments of events that may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences at the coast are so far still unavailable. We describe and compare two different approaches that may be used to identify highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible events from model simulations. Firstly, in the case when consistent wind and tide-surge data are available, different metrics such as the height of the storm surge can be derived directly from the simulated water levels. Secondly, in cases where only atmospheric data are available, the so called effective wind may be used. The latter is the projection of the horizontal wind vector on that direction which is most effective in producing surges at the coast. Comparison of events identified by both methods show that they can identify extreme events but that knowledge of the effective wind alone does not provide sufficient information to identify the highest storm surges. Tracks of the low-pressure systems over the North Sea need to be investigated to find those cases, where the duration of the high wind is too short to induce extreme storm tides. On the other hand, factors such as external surges or variability in mean sea level may enhance surge heights and are not accounted for in estimates based on effective winds only. Results from the analysis of an extended data set suggest that unprecedented storm surges at the German North Sea coast are possible even without taking effects from rising mean sea level into account. The work presented is part of the ongoing project “Extreme North Sea Storm Surges and Their Consequences” (EXTREMENESS) and represents the first step towards an impact assessment for very severe storm surges which will serve as a basis for development of adaptation options and evaluation criteria.     

Line-of-sight velocity distributions of low-luminosity elliptical galaxies

The shape of the line-of-sight velocity distribution (LOSVD) is measured for a sample of 14 elliptical galaxies, predominantly low-luminosity ellipticals. The sample is dominated by galaxies in the Virgo cluster but also contains ellipticals in nearby groups and low-density environments. The parametrization of the LOSVD given by Gerhard and van der Marel & Franx is adopted, which measures the asymmetrical and symmetrical deviations of the LOSVD from a Gaussian by the amplitudes h ₃ and h ₄ of the Gauss–Hermite series. Rotation, velocity dispersion, h ₃ and h ₄ are determined as a function of radius for both major and minor axes. Non-Gaussian LOSVDs are found for all galaxies along the major axes. Deviations from a Gaussian LOSVD along the minor axis are of much lower amplitude if present at all. Central decreases in velocity dispersion are found for three galaxies. Two galaxies have kinematically decoupled cores: NGC 4458 and the well-known case of NGC 3608.     

Shock experiments in support of the Lithopanspermia theory: The influence of host rock composition,temperature, and shock pressure on the survival rate of endolithic and epilithic microorganisms

Abstract– Shock recovery experiments were performed with an explosive set‐up in which three types of microorganisms embedded in various types of host rocks were exposed to strong shock waves with pressure pulse lengths of lower than 0.5 μs: spores of the bacterium Bacillus subtilis, Xanthoria elegans lichens, and cells of the cyanobacterium Chroococcidiopsis sp. 029. In these experiments, three fundamental parameters were systematically varied (1) shock pressures ranging from 5 to 50 GPa, (2) preshock ambient temperature of 293, 233 and 193 K, and (3) the type of host rock, including nonporous igneous rocks (gabbro and dunite as analogs for the Martian shergottites and chassignites, respectively), porous sandstone, rock salt (halite), and a clay‐rich mineral mixture as porous analogs for dry and water‐saturated Martian regolith. The results show that the three parameters have a strong influence on the survival rates of the microorganisms. The most favorable conditions for the impact ejection from Mars for microorganisms would be (1) low porosity host rocks, (2) pressures <10–20 GPa, and (3) low ambient temperature of target rocks during impact. All tested microorganisms were capable of surviving to a certain extent impact ejection in different geological materials under distinct conditions.     

Estimating a Lagrangian Length Scale Using Measurements of CO2 in a Plant Canopy

Analytical Lagrangian equations capable of predicting concentration profiles from known source distributions offer the opportunity to calculate source/sink distributions through inverted forms of these equations. Inverse analytical Lagrangian equations provide a practical means of estimating source profiles using concentration and turbulence measurements. Uncertainty concerning estimates of the essentially immeasurable Lagrangian length scale ( ${\mathcal{L}}$ ), a key input, impedes the operational practicality of this method. The present study evaluates ${\mathcal{L}}$ within a corn canopy by using field measurements to constrain an analytical Lagrangian equation. Measurements of net CO₂ flux, soil-to-atmosphere CO₂ flux, and in-canopy profiles of CO₂ concentration provided the information required to solve for ${\mathcal{L}}$ in a global optimization algorithm for 30-min time intervals. For days when the canopy was a strong CO₂ sink, the optimization frequently located ${\mathcal{L}}$ profiles that follow a convex shape. A constrained optimization then fit the profile shape to a smooth sigmoidal equation. Inputting the optimized ${\mathcal{L}}$ profiles in the forward and inverse Lagrangian equations leads to strong correlations between measured and calculated concentrations and fluxes. Coefficients of the sigmoidal equation were specific to each 30-min period and did not scale with any measured variable. Plausible looking ${\mathcal{L}}$ profiles were associated with negative bulk Richardson number values. Once the canopy senesced, a simple eddy diffusivity profile sufficed to relate concentrations and sources in the analytical Lagrangian equations.     

Pressure effects on past regional sea level trends and variability in the German Bight

The impact on a large-scale sea level pressure field to the regional mean sea level changes of the German Bight is analysed. A multiple linear regression together with an empirical orthogonal function analysis is used to describe the relationship between the sea level pressure and the regional mean sea level considering the time period 1924–2001. Both, the part of the variability and of the long-term trend that can be associated with changes in the sea level pressure, are investigated. Considering the whole time period, this regression explains 58?% of the variance and 33?% of the long-term trend of the regional mean sea level. The index of agreement between the regression result and the observed time series is 0.82. As a proxy for large-scale mean sea level changes, the mean sea level of the North East Atlantic is subsequently introduced as an additional predictor. This further improves the results. For that case, the regression explains 74?% of the variance and 87?% of the linear trend. The index of agreement rises to 0.92. These results suggest that the sea level pressure mainly accounts for the inter-annual variability and parts of the long-term trend of regional mean sea level in the German Bight while large-scale sea level changes in the North East Atlantic account for another considerable fraction of the observed long-term trend. Sea level pressure effects and the mean sea level of the North East Atlantic provide thus significant contributions to regional sea level rise and variability. When future developments are considered, scenarios for their future long-term trends thus need to be comprised in order to provide reliable estimates of potential future long-term changes of mean sea level in the German Bight.     

Effects of ionizing radiation on the survival of bacterial spores in artificial martian regolith

Bacterial spores of Bacillus subtilis were used as a model system to study the effects of ionizing radiation on the survivability of spores uncovered and covered with artificial martian regolith. Spore survival after X-ray exposure was mainly depending on the role of non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) as the major DNA double-strand break repair pathway during germination, the involvement of major small, acid-soluble spore proteins (SASP) as DNA radioprotectants and the coverage by martian regolith, whereas spores covered with martian regolith were significantly more sensitive to X-rays than uncovered spores, which is mainly due to the interaction of X-rays with artificial martian regolith resulting in the formation of secondary electrons and reactive oxygen species.     

闪电的光辐射能分布特征

对TRMM卫星上装载的闪电成像仪(LIS)所获取的闪电光辐射能进行了分析,发现在不同地区和不同的空间、时间尺度上闪电光辐射能都很好地遵循对数正态分布。文中利用了一个国际上公认的一维雷暴云起电和放电模式,对闪电放电中和的电荷量进行了数值模拟。蒙特卡罗算法表明,闪电放电所中和的电荷量也遵循对数正态分布,云中的软雹浓度、破碎系数、温度递减率、放电的电场阈值等参量的综合作用可以对其进行较好的解释,而其中任意一种参量的单独作用则不然。     

Fe–Mg diffusion in olivine I: experimental determination between 700 and 1,200<Emphasis Type="Bold">°</Emphasis>C as a function of composition,crystal orientation and oxygen fugacity

We have determined Fe–Mg diffusion coefficients in olivines from different sources (Nanga Parbat, Pakistan and San Carlos, Arizona, USA) at atmospheric pressure as a function of composition, oxygen fugacity (10⁻⁵–10⁻¹² Pa) and temperature (700–1200°C) using thin films produced by pulsed laser deposition and RBS to analyze the concentration profiles. We have characterized the nano-scale structure and composition of the thin films annealed at various conditions and shown that the nature of the film (e.g. crystallinity, wetting behavior) depends strongly on the annealing conditions. If these variations are not taken into account in the form of boundary conditions for modeling the diffusion profiles, artifacts would result in the diffusion data. The diffusion coefficients obtained from 75 experiments reveal that (i) between fO₂ of 10⁻⁵ and 10⁻¹⁰ Pa, diffusion along all three principal crystallographic directions in olivine, [100], [010] and [001], are described by a constant activation energy of ∼200 kJ/mol, precluding any temperature dependence of diffusion anisotropy and change of mechanism of diffusion at temperatures between 950 and 1200°C, (ii) diffusion coefficients increase with oxygen fugacity at fO₂ > 10⁻¹⁰ Pa, with an fO₂ exponent that lies between 1/4 and 1/7, and (iii) at fO₂ below 10⁻¹⁰ Pa, and consequently at temperatures below ∼900°C, diffusion becomes weakly dependent/independent of fO₂, indicating a change of diffusion mechanism. Activation energy of diffusion at these conditions is slightly higher, ∼220 kJ/mol. The data, including the change of mechanism, are analyzed in terms of point defect chemistry in Part II of this work to derive an equation that allows calculation of diffusivities in olivine over its entire field of stability. Availability of directly measured data at temperatures down to 700°C imply that for the first time diffusion coefficients can be interpolated, rather than extrapolated, for modeling most natural systems.