Mapping global land system archetypes

Land use is a key driver of global environmental change. Unless major shifts in consumptive behaviours occur, land-based production will have to increase drastically to meet future demands for food and other commodities. One approach to better understand the drivers and impacts of agricultural intensification is the identification of global, archetypical patterns of land systems. Current approaches focus on broad-scale representations of dominant land cover with limited consideration of land-use intensity. In this study, we derived a new global representation of land systems based on more than 30 high-resolution datasets on land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. Using a self-organizing map algorithm, we identified and mapped twelve archetypes of land systems for the year 2005. Our analysis reveals similarities in land systems across the globe but the diverse pattern at sub-national scales implies that there are no ‘one-size-fits-all’ solutions to sustainable land management. Our results help to identify generic patterns of land pressures and environmental threats and provide means to target regionalized strategies to cope with the challenges of global change. Mapping global archetypes of land systems represents a first step towards better understanding the global patterns of human–environment interactions and the environmental and social outcomes of land system dynamics.     

Estimates of UK CO2 emissions from aviation using air traffic data

The allocation of CO₂ emissions to specific sources is a major policy issue for international aviation, especially for determining allocations for emissions trading schemes. This paper addresses the problem by recommending a possible methodology to allocate emissions to specific sources using detailed air traffic data. The basis for the calculations is an air traffic sample for one full-day of traffic from the UK. In order to analyse aircraft fuel burn use and hence CO₂ emissions, the Reorganized Air Traffic Control Mathematical Simulator (RAMS Plus) and the Advanced Emission Model (AEM III) are used. The results from these detailed simulations are compared with two of the most widely-used aviation CO₂ emission estimates to have been made for the UK: the SERAS study and NETCEN estimate. Their estimates for the year 2000 are 26.1 and 31.4 Mt, respectively. In addition, the most recent NETCEN estimate for the year 2003 is 34.1 Mt of CO₂. Our estimate of total aviation CO₂ emissions, using detailed simulations and real air traffic data, is 34.7 Mt for the year 2004. In addition, emission estimates are compared with two global aviation emission inventories: AERO2K and SAGE. Contributions of the highest-emitting flights and aircraft types are identified. International departures dominate; 6% of flights account for 50% of total emissions. The largest aircraft emit the most per flight-km, although not per passenger-km. Different methodologies and their implications are also discussed.     

Tracking the lithium isotopic evolution of the mantle using carbonatites

Carbonatites are mantle-derived, intraplate magmas that provide a means of documenting isotopic variations of the Earth's mantle through time. To investigate the secular Li isotopic evolution of the mantle and to test whether Li isotopes document systematic recycling of material processed at or near the Earth's surface into the mantle, we analyzed the Li isotopic compositions of carbonatites and spatially associated mafic silicate rocks. The Li isotopic compositions of Archean (2.7 Ga) to Recent carbonatites (δ⁷Li = 4.1 ± 1.3 (n = 23, 1σ)) overlap the range typical for modern mantle-derived rocks, and do not change with time, despite ongoing crustal recycling. Thus, the average Li isotopic composition of recycled crustal components has not deviated greatly from the mantle value (~ + 4) and/or Li diffusion is sufficiently fast to attenuate significant heterogeneities over timescales of 10⁸ years. Modeling of Li diffusion at mantle temperatures suggests that limited δ⁷Li variation in the mantle through time reflects the more effective homogenization of Li in the mantle compared to radiogenic isotope systems. The real (but limited) variations in δ⁷Li that exist in modern mantle-derived magmas as well as carbonatites studied here may reflect isotopic fractionation associated with shallow-level processes, such as crustal assimilation and diffusive isotopic fractionation in magmatic systems, with some of the scatter possibly related to low-temperature alteration.     

An overview on source rocks and the petroleum system of the central Upper Rhine Graben

International Journal of Earth Sciences - The petroleum system of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) comprises multiple reservoir rocks and four major oil families, which are represented by four distinct...     

Shear-wave velocity estimation using a combination of ambient noise from small aperture array and small-scale active seismic measurements: a case study in the area of the natural gas fields of Northern Germany

In recent years, numerous induced seismic events have occurred in the proximity of the natural gas field in Northern Germany. To monitor the seismicity and to asses the seismic hazard potential, a local monitoring network was installed in the area. Focusing on the seismicity hazard assessment, a major challenge is the characterisation of potential site effects due to local soil characteristics. This is quantitatively performed by estimating the shear-wave velocity (V _s) variation with subsurface layer thickness. Such local effects can only be covered with a coarse spatial resolution due to the limited number of monitoring stations. Profiles were determined at three test sites (Langwedel, Walle and Bomlitz) by using a combined approach of small aperture 2D array ambient noise and small-scale active 1D measurements. The high-resolution frequency-wavenumber (HRFK), spatial autocorrelation (SPAC) and multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) methods were applied to the recorded ambient noise and active seismic data using various array sizes supplemented by the active measurements. This jointly allowed obtaining phase velocity dispersion curves covering a wide frequency range from 2 up to 32 Hz. The inversion of the obtained dispersion curves results in average S-wave velocity profiles down to depths of 70 m, identifying thin near-surface layers of a few meters as well as thicker layers of tens of meters in greater depth. A comparison with available borehole data shows a good correlation with the layering. Additionally, to asses the impact of a seismic event at the test sites, PGV estimations for various seismic events were performed. The final results of the test surveys demonstrate that the combined approach represents a suitable tool for near-surface characterisation, which can be used to improve the seismic hazard assessment in the area of the natural gas fields in Northern Germany.     

IMAGE: a multivariate multi-site stochastic weather generator for European weather and climate

Capturing the spatial and temporal correlation of multiple variables in a weather generator is challenging. A new massively multi-site, multivariate daily stochastic weather generator called IMAGE is presented here. It models temperature and precipitation variables as latent Gaussian variables with temporal behaviour governed by an auto-regressive model whose residuals and parameters are correlated through resampling of principle component time series of empirical orthogonal function modes. A case study using European climate data demonstrates the model’s ability to reproduce extreme events of temperature and precipitation. The ability to capture the spatial and temporal extent of extremes using a modified Climate Extremes Index is demonstrated. Importantly, the model generates events covering not observed temporal and spatial scales giving new insights for risk management purposes.     

Parametric study of vertical vibrations of circular flexible foundations on layered media

The paper presents results of a parametric study of vertical oscillations of a flexible circular plate on the surface of an elastic half-space and an elastic layered system. The solution of the problem is based on the ‘ring method’. Vertical oscillations have been analysed to determine the displacement and soil reaction distributions at the soil-plate interface and the impedance functions. Parameters of the study include material and geometrical properties of a soil system and a plate and the load distribution on the plate. The results indicate significantly different behaviour of a flexible plate from that of a rigid one. Based on the observed behaviour, a classification of plates has been suggested.     

Optimal experimental design for reservoir property estimates in geothermal exploration

During geothermal reservoir development, drilling deep boreholes turns out to be extremely expensive and risky. Thus, it is of great importance to work out the details of suitable borehole locations in advance. Here, given a set of existing boreholes, we demonstrate how a sophisticated numerical technique called optimal experimental design helps to find a location of an additional exploratory borehole that reduces risk and, ultimately, saves cost. More precisely, the approach minimizes the uncertainty when deducing the effective permeability of a buried reservoir layer from a temperature profile measured in this exploratory borehole. In this paper, we (1) outline the mathematical formulation in terms of an optimization problem, (2) describe the numerical implementation involving various software components, and (3) apply the method to a 3D numerical simulation model representing a real geothermal reservoir in northern Italy. Our results show that optimal experimental design is conceptually and computationally feasible for industrial-scale applications. For the particular reservoir and the estimation of permeability from temperature, the optimal location of the additional borehole coincides with regions of high flow rates and large deviations from the mean temperature of the reservoir layer in question. Finally, the presentation shows that, methodologically, the optimization method can be generalized from estimating permeability to finding any other reservoir properties.