Sensitivity of physical parameterizations on prediction of tropical cyclone Nargis over the Bay of Bengal using WRF model

Comprehensive sensitivity analyses on physical parameterization schemes of Weather Research Forecast (WRF-ARW core) model have been carried out for the prediction of track and intensity of tropical cyclones by taking the example of cyclone Nargis, which formed over the Bay of Bengal and hit Myanmar on 02 May 2008, causing widespread damages in terms of human and economic losses. The model performances are also evaluated with different initial conditions of 12?h intervals starting from the cyclogenesis to the near landfall time. The initial and boundary conditions for all the model simulations are drawn from the global operational analysis and forecast products of National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP-GFS) available for the public at 1° lon/lat resolution. The results of the sensitivity analyses indicate that a combination of non-local parabolic type exchange coefficient PBL scheme of Yonsei University (YSU), deep and shallow convection scheme with mass flux approach for cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch), and NCEP operational cloud microphysics scheme with diagnostic mixed phase processes (Ferrier), predicts better track and intensity as compared against the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimates. Further, the final choice of the physical parameterization schemes selected from the above sensitivity experiments is used for model integration with different initial conditions. The results reveal that the cyclone track, intensity and time of landfall are well simulated by the model with an average intensity error of about 8?hPa, maximum wind error of 12?m?s^?1and track error of 77?km. The simulations also show that the landfall time error and intensity error are decreasing with delayed initial condition, suggesting that the model forecast is more dependable when the cyclone approaches the coast. The distribution and intensity of rainfall are also well simulated by the model and comparable with the TRMM estimates.     

Delineation of coalfield surface fires by thresholding Landsat TM-7 day-time image data

Surface fires are common in coalfields where coal is mined or exposed to sunlight for long durations of time. The heat energy emitted from these fires affects the signal recorded by sensors operating in the shortwave infrared regions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The Landsat TM/ETM+ band-7 is sensitive to solar reflected radiation as well as emitted radiation from a target. The ‘maximum solar reflection threshold’ method proposed in this study uses the highest spectral radiance that can be attributed to solar reflection as the conservative threshold to segregate the pixels with emitted component from those with reflected component of the EM energy. Investigations with Landsat TM/ETM+ data indicate a reflectance value of 0.23–0.25 as the most representative highest reflectance (threshold) in coal mining areas. The method apparently has the advantage that it is based on the reflectance characteristics of materials (sandstone-shale mixtures) typically found in coal mining areas.     

Urban cadastral mapping using very high resolution remote sensing data

With growing urban expanses, one of the pre-requisites for effective governance is Urban Information Systems (UIS) with content down to individual properties (and individuals). The basic input i.e., a map, in UIS should show individual property boundaries showing the plan outline of all structures existing within, at a scale of 1:1000 and larger with sub-metre to centimeters planimetric and geometric accuracy. With very high resolution remote sensing data of the order of 1m available in hand, it is possible to prepare maps with high resolution spatial content. The present exercise demonstrates a method of preparing a geometrically and planimetrically accurate urban cadastral map on very large scale for a small area of about 5 sq km. IKONOS merged data with 1m resolution is used for the purpose. Mapping was done in conjunction with on-site measurements and sketches. Guides are used to maintain shape symmetry and accuracy of buildings and other features. Working out cost of mapping per unit area is another objective in the present exercise. For want of fully or semi-automatic methods of information extraction from very high resolution remote sensing data, it is imperative that mapping should be carried out in conjunction with some on-site measurements wherever necessary.     

Evaluating a thermal image sharpening model over a mixed agricultural landscape in India

Fine spatial resolution (e.g., <300 m) thermal data are needed regularly to characterise the temporal pattern of surface moisture status, water stress, and to forecast agriculture drought and famine. However, current optical sensors do not provide frequent thermal data at a fine spatial resolution. The TsHARP model provides a possibility to generate fine spatial resolution thermal data from coarse spatial resolution (≥1 km) data on the basis of an anticipated inverse linear relationship between the normalised difference vegetation index (NDVI) at fine spatial resolution and land surface temperature at coarse spatial resolution. The current study utilised the TsHARP model over a mixed agricultural landscape in the northern part of India. Five variants of the model were analysed, including the original model, for their efficiency. Those five variants were the global model (original); the resolution-adjusted global model; the piecewise regression model; the stratified model; and the local model. The models were first evaluated using Advanced Space-borne Thermal Emission Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) thermal data (90 m) aggregated to the following spatial resolutions: 180 m, 270 m, 450 m, 630 m, 810 m and 990 m. Although sharpening was undertaken for spatial resolutions from 990 m to 90 m, root mean square error (RMSE) of <2 K could, on average, be achieved only for 990–270 m in the ASTER data. The RMSE of the sharpened images at 270 m, using ASTER data, from the global, resolution-adjusted global, piecewise regression, stratification and local models were 1.91, 1.89, 1.96, 1.91, 1.70 K, respectively. The global model, resolution-adjusted global model and local model yielded higher accuracy, and were applied to sharpen MODIS thermal data (1 km) to the target spatial resolutions. Aggregated ASTER thermal data were considered as a reference at the respective target spatial resolutions to assess the prediction results from MODIS data. The RMSE of the predicted sharpened image from MODIS using the global, resolution-adjusted global and local models at 250 m were 3.08, 2.92 and 1.98 K, respectively. The local model consistently led to more accurate sharpened predictions by comparison to other variants.     

Remote sensing of horticultural plantations in Kumarsain tehsil in Shimla district, Himachal Pradesh

The favourable agroclimatic conditions for orchards especially apples have increased the acreages in Himachal Pradesh (HP) which has significantly contributed in the growth of state economy. Realizing the importance of horticulture in HP and its changing scenario of the land use/land cover, a study was conducted to identify and map apple and almond plantations in the Kumarsain tehsil of Shimla district using Remote Sensing (RS) techniques. IRS-IB LISS-II False Colour Composite (FCC) diapositives of October 27, March 30 and April 20, 1992 were visually analysed for mapping apple and almond plantations. The results indicate that IRS LISS-II data of April 20 on 1∶50,000 scale was found very useful for identification and mapping of apple and almond plantations in this region. Accuracy of interpretation was also tested on sample basis assuming a binomial distribution for the probability of success/failure of sample points. The overall interpretation accuracy assessed based on 40 sample points was found to be 87 per cent at 90 per cent confidence limits.     

Source Parameters of the Deadly M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.6 Kashmir Earthquake of 8 October, 2005

During the last six years, National Geophysical Research Institute, Hyderabad has established a semi-permanent seismological network of 5–8 broadband seismographs and 10–20 accelerographs in the Kachchh seismic zone, Gujarat with a prime objective to monitor the continued aftershock activity of the 2001 M_w 7.7 Bhuj mainshock. The reliable and accurate broadband data for the 8 October M_w 7.6 2005 Kashmir earthquake and its aftershocks from this network as well as Hyderabad Geoscope station enabled us to estimate the group velocity dispersion characteristics and one-dimensional regional shear velocity structure of the Peninsular India. Firstly, we measure Rayleigh-and Love-wave group velocity dispersion curves in the period range of 8 to 35 sec and invert these curves to estimate the crustal and upper mantle structure below the western part of Peninsular India. Our best model suggests a two-layered crust: The upper crust is 13.8 km thick with a shear velocity (Vs) of 3.2 km/s; the corresponding values for the lower crust are 24.9 km and 3.7 km/sec. The shear velocity for the upper mantle is found to be 4.65 km/sec. Based on this structure, we perform a moment tensor (MT) inversion of the bandpass (0.05–0.02 Hz) filtered seismograms of the Kashmir earthquake. The best fit is obtained for a source located at a depth of 30 km, with a seismic moment, Mo, of 1.6 × 10²⁷ dyne-cm, and a focal mechanism with strike 19.5°, dip 42°, and rake 167°. The long-period magnitude (M_A ~ M_w) of this earthquake is estimated to be 7.31. An analysis of well-developed sPn and sSn regional crustal phases from the bandpassed (0.02–0.25 Hz) seismograms of this earthquake at four stations in Kachchh suggests a focal depth of 30.8 km.     

Parabolic density function in sedimentary basin modelling

For modelling sedimentary basins of large thickness from their gravity anomalies, the concept of parabolic density function which explains the variation of true density contrast of the sediments with depth in such basins is introduced inBott's (1960) procedure. The analytical expression the gravity anomaly of a two-dimensional vertical prism with parabolic density contrast needed to estimate the gravity effect of the basin in modelling procedure is derived in a closed form. Two profiles of gravity anomalies, one across San Jacinto Graben, California and the other across Tucson basin, Arizona where the density of sediments is found to vary with depth are interpreted.     

First results from ground-based daytime optical investigation of the development of the equatorial ionization anomaly

A meridional scanning OI 630.0-nm dayglow photometer was operated from Ahmedabad (17.2^°N dip lat.) scanning a region towards the south in the upper atmosphere extending over \sim5^° in latitude from 10.2^°N to 15.2^°N dip latitude. From the spatial and temporal variabilities of the dayglow intensity in the scanning region we show for the first time, evidence for the passage of the crest of the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in the daytime by means of a ground-based optical technique. The relationship between the daytime eastward electric field over the dip equator in the same longitude zone as inferred from the equatorial electrojet strength and the evolutionary pattern of EIA is clearly demonstrated. The latter as inferred from the dayglow measurements is shown to be consistent with our present understanding of the electrodynamical processes in the equatorial region. The present results reveal the potential of this ground-based optical technique for the investigation of ionospheric/thermospheric phenomena with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution.