Morphological similarities between DBM and a microeconomic model of sprawl

We present a model that simulates the growth of a metropolitan area on a 2D lattice. The model is dynamic and based on microeconomics. Households show preferences for nearby open spaces and neighbourhood density. They compete on the land market. They travel along a road network to access the CBD. A planner ensures the connectedness and maintenance of the road network. The spatial pattern of houses, green spaces and road network self-organises, emerging from agents individualistic decisions. We perform several simulations and vary residential preferences. Our results show morphologies and transition phases that are similar to Dieletric Breakdown Models (DBM). Such similarities were observed earlier by other authors, but we show here that it can be deducted from the functioning of the land market and thus explicitly connected to urban economic theory.     

Accurate ionospheric delay model for real-time GPS-based positioning of LEO satellites using horizontal VTEC gradient estimation

Ionospheric delays compensation is a mandatory step for precise absolute and relative positioning of Low Earth Orbit Satellites (LEO) by GPS measurements. The most frequently used ionosphere model for real-time GPS-based navigation in LEO is an isotropic model proposed by Lear, which uses the Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) above the receiver and a mapping function for TEC evaluation along a given ray path. Based on significant assessed results available for ground-based GPS receivers, we propose the use of a different model relying on the thin shell assumption and a bilinear horizontal variation of the VTEC as a function of latitude and longitude in the shell. It is expected that this model is capable of better describing horizontal gradients in the ionosphere, thus improving ionospheric delay estimation, especially in intense ionospheric conditions. This model is referred to as Linear Thin Shell (LTS). LTS performance in estimating undifferenced and double-differenced ionospheric delays is checked by comparing measured and predicted delays computed using flight data from the GRACE mission. Results show that the LTS always outperforms the isotropic model, especially in case of high solar activity. Moreover, the LTS model provides a higher performance uniformity over a wide range of ionospheric delays, thus ensuring good performance in different conditions. The results obtained demonstrate that the LTS model improves the ionosphere delays estimation accuracy by 20 and 40% for undifferenced and double-differenced delays, respectively. This suggests the LTS model can effectively contribute to improving precision in LEO positioning applications.     

Early middle Holocene climate oscillations recorded in the Beihuqiao Core,Yuhang, Zhejiang Province,China

A long-standing controversy exists concerning the spatial and temporal characteristics of Holocene climate change in China. Zhejiang is located in the southeast of China, where the East Asian monsoon dominates the climate and a Neolithic culture flourished. In recent years, geographers have debated the climatic conditions existing at the time of the Neolithic cultures. This study reconstructed the sedimentary environment between 11.30 and 4.17 cal ka BP based on a multi-proxy analysis of a 14.3 meter sediment core, drilled in Beihuqiao, Zhejiang Province, China. The results show: (1) The climate was getting warm between 11.50 and 8.77 cal ka BP. Grain size became finer from the bottom to the top layer, accompanied by an increase in the chemical index of alteration (CIA), Mg/Sr ratio, the percentage of clay, pollen concentrations, and a decrease in SiO₂/Al₂O₃ ratio, and the value of bases–alumina (ba), as well as other trace elements. (2) Between 8.77 and 7.99 cal ka BP, the sediment is composed of gray-yellow and gray silt. The percentage of CaO and the ratio of CaO + Na₂O + K₂O to Al₂O₃ is much higher. The pollen concentration sharply decreases. The climate was cold and dry in the early stages of this period, but became relatively warmer and wetter in the later stages. (3) The Holocene Climatic Optimum occurred at 7.99–5.68 cal ka BP. Higher contents of clay, total Fe₂O₃, Al₂O₃, CIA, the chemical proxy of alteration, pollen concentration, evergreen pollens, and high values of Mg/Sr are observed at this stage, coinciding with a lower SiO₂/Al₂O₃ value, (CaO + Na₂O + K₂O)/Al₂O₃ ratio, and an obvious reduction in silt/clay, and SiO₂ and CaO concentrations. (4) During the period 5.68–4.17 cal ka BP, the temperature in the study area declined in a stepwise fashion. The grain size became finer, and the Mg/Sr ratio decreased gradually.     

Geodetic observation crucial to sea level monitoring

The relative rate of rise of the sea levels measured by a tide gauge is made of a sea and a land component. The first is usually restricted to the global short-term effect of melting icecaps and expansion of water mass due to global temperature change. The second is often limited to the regional long-term effects of glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). Sometimes, the regional subsidence, due to compaction and ground water withdrawal, is considered. Here we show as this assumption of regional subsidence fails to represent the relative sea level patterns of Sandy Hook, NJ, and The Battery, NY, as well as of Venezia Punta Della Salute, Venezia II, Trieste and Trieste II. The subsidence of the tide gauge instrument may only be addressed by the precise monitoring of the tide gauge vs. a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) antenna, even if the GNSS tracking is only recent and not yet very accurate. The relative sea level records are much more complicated than what is thought.     

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessment. A case study from the Ebro Valley evaporite alluvial karst (NE Spain)

Quantitative sinkhole hazard assessments in karst areas allow calculation of the potential sinkhole risk and the performance of cost-benefit analyses. These estimations are of practical interest for planning, engineering, and insurance purposes. The sinkhole hazard assessments should include two components: the probability of occurrence of sinkholes (sinkholes/km² year) and the severity of the sinkholes, which mainly refers to the subsidence mechanisms (progressive passive bending or catastrophic collapse) and the size of the sinkholes at the time of formation; a critical engineering design parameter. This requires the compilation of an exhaustive database on recent sinkholes, including information on the: (1) location, (2) chronology (precise date or age range), (3) size, and (4) subsidence mechanisms and rate. This work presents a hazard assessment from an alluvial evaporite karst area (0.81 km²) located in the periphery of the city of Zaragoza (Ebro River valley, NE Spain). Five sinkholes and four locations with features attributable to karstic subsidence where identified in an initial investigation phase providing a preliminary probability of occurrence of 0.14 sinkholes/km² year (11.34% in annual probability). A trenching program conducted in a subsequent investigation phase allowed us to rule out the four probable sinkholes, reducing the probability of occurrence to 0.079 sinkholes/km² year (6.4% in annual probability). The information on the severity indicates that collapse sinkholes 10–15 m in diameter may occur in the area. A detailed study of the deposits and deformational structures exposed by trenching in one of the sinkholes allowed us to infer a modern collapse sinkhole approximately 12 m in diameter and with a vertical throw of 8 m. This collapse structure is superimposed on a subsidence sinkhole around 80 m across that records at least 1.7 m of synsedimentary subsidence. Trenching, in combination with dating techniques, is proposed as a useful methodology to elucidate the origin of depressions with uncertain diagnosis and to gather practical information with predictive utility about particular sinkholes in alluvial karst settings: precise location, subsidence mechanisms and magnitude, and timing and rate of the subsidence episodes.     

The impacts of natural hazards on Taiwan’s tourism industry

Typhoon Morakot hit Taiwan in 2009, severely damaging the Alishan National Forest Recreation Area, a famous tourist resort in Taiwan. The only highway to this area was under repair for 10 months after the typhoon. Consequently, Alishan’s tourism industry suffered losses estimated at NT$1 billion. This work investigates the impacts of natural hazards on Taiwan’s tourism industry. First, government, university, and industry experts were invited to a focus-group interview to update criteria for tourism development in Taiwan. Next, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was applied to rank the proposed criteria. Last, two tourist attractions, one urban and one rural, are discussed in detail. This work proposes three novel dimensions for Taiwan’s tourism development—destination attraction, destination arrangement, and contingency planning for natural hazards—which comprise nine criteria. Analytical results will provide Taiwan’s tourism industry with references for future policy-making and sustainable development.     

鄱阳湖流域史前人类遗址时空分布及其环境响应（英文）

The temporal-spatial geographic distribution of archaeological sites and its feature between 10.0–2.8 ka BP(ka BP= thousands of years before 0 BP, where "0 BP" is defined as the year AD 1950) were determined, based on GIS spatial analysis in the Poyang Lake Basin. The relationship between geographic distribution of sites of different periods under subsistence existence of ancient civilizations, climate and environmental change was investigated. The results revealed numerous archaeological sites of the Neolithic Age(10.0–3.6 ka BP). The sites were mainly located in the northern part of the Poyang Lake Basin, a hilly and mountainous area with many river terraces suitable for the development of human civilization. The number of archaeological sites rapidly increased during the Shang and Zhou dynasties(3.6–2.8 ka BP) and spread widely on the floodplains of the middle and lower reaches of Ganjiang River and onto the west, south, and southeast beach areas of the Poyang Lake. Holocene records of climate change suggested that it was possible that climate fluctuations had a great impact on human evolution in the study area. Before 3.6 ka BP, westward and northward expansion of Neolithic cultures in the Poyang Lake watershed occurred under the background of climate amelioration(becoming warmer and wetter). The ancient people lived in the hilly areas with high elevation. The simple mode of a fishing and gathering economy was mostly suited to this area in the early Neolithic Age. The scope of human activities was expanded and cultural diversity developed in the late Neolithic Age. However, with population growth and increasing survival pressure in a dry-cold climatic stage after 3.6 ka BP, this simple living mode had to be abandoned, and various forms of economy, the majority being agriculture, were developed on flood plains of the lower reaches of numerous rivers around Poyang Lake. This promoted flourishing of the Bronze culture of South China.     

On the role of buoyancy force in the ore genesis of SEDEX deposits: Example from Northern Australia

Finite element modeling on a highly conceptualized 2-D model of fluid flow and heat transport is un-dertaken to simulate the paleo-hydrological system as if the Mount Isa deposits were being formed in the Mount Isa basin, Northern Australia, and to evaluate the potential of buoyancy force in driving ba-sin-scale fluid flow for the formation of sedimentary-exhalative (SEDEX) deposits. Our numerical case studies indicate that buoyancy-driven fluid flow is controlled mainly by the fault penetration depth and i...     

Stability analysis of slope in strain-softening soils using local arc-length solution scheme

Soils with strain-softening behavior — manifesting as a reduction of strength with increasing plastic strain — are commonly found in the natural environment. For slopes in these soils,a progressive failure mechanism can occur due to a reduction of strength with increasing strain. Finite element method based numerical approaches have been widely performed for simulating such failure mechanism,owning to their ability for tracing the formation and development of the localized shear strain. However,the reliability of the currently used approaches are often affected by poor convergence or significant mesh-dependency,and their applicability is limited by the use of complicated soil models. This paper aims to overcome these limitations by developing a finite element approach using a local arc-length controlled iterative algorithm as the solution strategy. In the proposed finite element approach,the soils are simulated with an elastoplastic constitutive model in conjunction with the Mohr-Coulomb yield function. The strain-softening behavior is represented by a piece-wise linearrelationship between the Mohr-Coulomb strength parameters and the deviatoric plastic strain. To assess the reliability of the proposed finite element approach,comparisons of the numerical solutions obtained by different finite element methods and meshes with various qualities are presented. Moreover,a landslide triggered by excavation in a real expressway construction project is analyzed by the presented finite element approach to demonstrate its applicability for practical engineering problems.     

Trends and variability of meteorological drought over the districts of India using standardized precipitation index

Meteorological drought during the southwest monsoon season and for the northeast monsoon season over five meteorological subdivisions of India for the period 1901–2015 has been examined using district and all India standardized precipitation index (SPI). Whenever all India southwest monsoon rainfall was less than ?10% or below normal, for those years all India SPI was found as ?1 or less. Composite analysis of SPI for the below normal years, viz., less than ?15% and ?20% of normal rainfall years indicate that during those years more than 30% of country’s area was under drought condition, whenever all India southwest monsoon rainfall was –15% or less than normal. Trend analysis of monthly SPI for the monsoon months identified the districts experiencing significant increase in drought occurrences. Significant positive correlation has been found with the meteorological drought over most of the districts of central, northern and peninsular India, while negative correlation was seen over the districts of eastern India with NINO 3.4 SST. For the first time, meteorological drought analysis over districts and its association with equatorial pacific SST and probability analysis has been done for the northeast monsoon over the affected regions of south peninsular India. Temporal correlation of all India southwest monsoon SPI and south peninsular India northeast monsoon SPI has been done with the global SST to identify the teleconnection of drought in India with global parameters.