Would different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure lead to different risk levels? A case study of the Brazilian industry

Energy-intensive industries play an important role in low-carbon development, being particularly exposed to climate policies. Concern over possible carbon leakage in this sector poses a major challenge for designing effective carbon pricing instruments (CPI). Different methodologies for assessing carbon leakage exposure are currently used by different jurisdictions, each of them based on different approaches and indicators. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which the use of different methodologies leads to different results in terms of exposure to the risk of carbon leakage, using the Brazilian industry sector as a case study. Results indicate that carbon leakage exposure is an expected outcome of eventual CPI implementation in Brazilian industry. However, results vary according to the chosen methodology, so the definition of the criteria is paramount for assessing sectoral exposure to the risk of carbon leakage.

Key policy insights

• Despite increasing discussion about the implementation of carbon pricing on the Brazilian industrial sector, the evaluation of carbon leakage risks is still neglected.

• Assessments of the risk of carbon leakage are directly related to the indicators and criteria used by each methodology. Thus, a given subsector may present different levels of exposure to carbon leakage depending on the methodological choice.

• More than a purely technical discussion, the methodological definition of carbon leakage risk is a political discussion – it can be well-conducted, leading to the success of a CPI, or even sabotaged, by implicitly subsidizing energy-intensive industries.

     

Early-Morning Flow Transition in a Valley in Low-Mountain Terrain Under Clear-Sky Conditions

We investigate the evolution of the early-morning boundary layer in a low-mountain valley in south-western Germany during COPS (convective and orographically induced precipitation study) in summer 2007. The term low-mountain refers to a mountainous region with a relief of gentle slopes and with an absolute altitude that remains under a specified height (usually 1,500 m a.s.l.). A subset of 23 fair weather days from the campaign was selected to study the transition of the boundary-layer flow in the early morning. The typical valley atmosphere in the morning hours was characterized by a stable temperature stratification and a pronounced valley wind system. During the reversal period—called the low wind period—of the valley wind system (duration of 1–2 h), the horizontal flow was very weak and the conditions for free convection were fulfilled close to the ground. Ground-based sodar observations of the vertical wind show enhanced values of upward motion, and the corresponding statistical properties differ from those observed under windless convective conditions over flat terrain. Large-eddy simulations of the boundary-layer transition in the valley were conducted, and statistical properties of the simulated flow agree with the observed quantities. Spatially coherent turbulence structures are present in the temporal as well as in the ensemble mean analysis. Thus, the complex orography induces coherent convective structures at predictable, specific locations during the early-morning low wind situations. These coherent updrafts, found in both the sodar observations and the simulation, lead to a flux counter to the gradient of the stably stratified valley atmosphere and reach up to the heights of the surrounding ridges. Furthermore, the energy balance in the surface layer during the low wind periods is closed. However, it becomes unclosed after the onset of the valley wind. The partition into the sensible and the latent heat fluxes indicates that missing flux components of sensible heat are the main reason for the unclosed energy balance in the considered situations. This result supports previously published investigations on the energy balance closure.     

Building Web-Based Spatial Information Solutions around Open Specifications and Open Source Software

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are moving from isolated, standalone, monolithic, proprietary systems working in a client‐server architecture to smaller web‐based applications and components offering specific geo‐processing functionality and transparently exchanging data among them. Interoperability is at the core of this new web services model. Compliance with Open Specifications (OS) enables interoperability. Web‐GIS software's high costs, complexity and special requirements have prevented many organizations from deploying their data and geo‐processing capabilities over the World Wide Web. There are no‐cost Open Source Software (OSS) alternatives to proprietary software for operating systems, web servers, and Relational Database Management Systems. We tested the potential of the combined use of OS and OSS to create web‐based spatial information solutions. We present in detail the steps taken in creating a prototype system to support land use planning in Mexico with web‐based geo‐processing capabilities currently not present in commercial web‐GIS products. We show that the process is straightforward and accessible to a broad audience of geographic information scientists and developers. We conclude that OS and OSS allow the development of web‐based spatial information solutions that are low‐cost, simple to implement, compatible with existing information technology infrastructure, and have the potential of interoperating with other systems and applications in the future.     

CodaQ as a combination of scattering and intrinsic attenuation: Numerical simulations with the boundary integral method

Numerical modelling ofSH wave seismograms in media whose material properties are prescribed by a random distribution of many perfectly elastic cavities and by intrinsic absorption of seismic energy (anelasticity) demonstrates that the main characteristics of the coda waves, namely amplitude decay and duration, are well described by singly scattered waves in anelastic media rather than by multiply scattered waves in either elastic or anelastic media. We use the Boundary Integral scheme developed byBenites et al. (1992) to compute the complete wave field and measure the values of the direct waveQ and coda wavesQ in a wide range of frequencies, determining the spatial decay of the direct wave log-amplitude relation and the temporal decay of the coda envelope, respectively. The effects of both intrinsic absorption and pure scattering on the overall attenuation can be quantified separately by computing theQ values for corresponding models with (anelastic) and without (elastic) absorption. For the models considered in this study, the values of codaQ ^–1 in anelastic media are in good agreement with the sum of the corresponding scatteringQ ^–1 and intrinsicQ ^–1 values, as established by the single-scattering model ofAki andChouet (1975). Also, for the same random model with intrinsic absorption it appears that the singly scattered waves propagate without significant loss of energy as compared with the multiply scattered waves, which are strongly affected by absorption, suggesting its dominant role in the attenuation of coda waves.     

Model prediction capacity of ephemeral gully evolution in conservation tillage systems

Ephemeral gully (EG) erosion has an important impact on agricultural soil losses and increases field surface hydrology connectivity and transport of pollutants to nearby water bodies. Watershed models including an EG component are scarce and not yet properly evaluated. The objective of this study is to evaluate the capacity of one such tool, AnnAGNPS, to simulate the evolution of two EG formed in a conservation tillage system. The dataset for model testing included runoff measurements and EG morphological characteristics during 3 years. Model evaluation focused on EG evolution of volume, width, and length model outputs, and included calibration and testing phases and a global sensitivity analysis (GSA). While the model did not fully reproduce width and length, the model efficiency to simulate EG volume was satisfactory for both calibration and testing phases, supporting the watershed management objectives of the model. GSA revealed that the most sensitive factors were EG depth, critical shear stress, headcut detachment exponent coefficient b, and headcut detachment leading coefficient a. For EG outputs the model was additive, showing low sensitivity to interactions between the inputs. Prediction of EG spatial evolution on conservation tillage systems requires improved development of gully erosion components, since many of the processes were developed originally for traditional tillage practices or larger channel systems. Our results identify the need for future research when EG form within conservation tillage systems, in particular to study gully headcut, soil erodibility, and width functions specific to these practices.     

Life-cycle based design of mass dampers for the Chilean region and its application for the evaluation of the effectiveness of tuned liquid dampers with floating roof

The assessment of the effectiveness of mass dampers for the Chilean region within a multi-objective decision framework utilizing life-cycle performance criteria is considered in this paper. The implementation of this framework focuses here on the evaluation of the potential as a cost-effective protection device of a recently proposed liquid damper, called tuned liquid damper with floating roof (TLD-FR). The TLD-FR maintains the advantages of traditional tuned liquid dampers (TLDs), i.e. low cost, easy tuning, alternative use of water, while establishing a linear and generally more robust/predictable damper behavior (than TLDs) through the introduction of a floating roof. At the same time it suffers (like all other liquid dampers) from the fact that only a portion of the total mass contributes directly to the vibration suppression, reducing its potential effectiveness when compared to traditional tuned mass dampers. A life-cycle design approach is investigated here for assessing the compromise between these two features, i.e. reduced initial cost but also reduced effectiveness (and therefore higher cost from seismic losses), when evaluating the potential for TLD-FRs for the Chilean region. Leveraging the linear behavior of the TLD-FR a simple parameterization of the equations of motion is established, enabling the formulation of a design framework that beyond TLDs-FR is common for other type of linear mass dampers, something that supports a seamless comparison to them. This framework relies on a probabilistic characterization of the uncertainties impacting the seismic performance. Quantification of this performance through time-history analysis is considered and the seismic hazard is described by a stochastic ground motion model that is calibrated to offer hazard-compatibility with ground motion prediction equations available for Chile. Two different criteria related to life-cycle performance are utilized in the design optimization, in an effort to support a comprehensive comparison between the examined devices. The first one, representing overall direct benefits, is the total life-cycle cost of the system, composed of the upfront device cost and the anticipated seismic losses over the lifetime of the structure. The second criterion, incorporating risk-averse concepts into the decision making, is related to consequences (repair cost) with a specific probability of exceedance over the lifetime of the structure. A multi-objective optimization is established and stochastic simulation is used to estimate all required risk measures. As an illustrative example, the performance of different mass dampers placed on a 21-story building in the Santiago area is examined.     

Applying Fractal Dimensions and Energy-Budget Analysis to Characterize Fracturing Processes During Magma Migration and Eruption: 2011–2012 El Hierro (Canary Islands) Submarine Eruption

The impossibility of observing magma migration inside the crust obliges us to rely on geophysical data and mathematical modelling to interpret precursors and to forecast volcanic eruptions. Of the geophysical signals that may be recorded before and during an eruption, deformation and seismicity are two of the most relevant as they are directly related to its dynamic. The final phase of the unrest episode that preceded the 2011–2012 eruption on El Hierro (Canary Islands) was characterized by local and accelerated deformation and seismic energy release indicating an increasing fracturing and a migration of the magma. Application of time varying fractal analysis to the seismic data and the characterization of the seismicity pattern and the strain and the stress rates allow us to identify different stages in the source mechanism and to infer the geometry of the path used by the magma and associated fluids to reach the Earth’s surface. The results obtained illustrate the relevance of such studies to understanding volcanic unrest and the causes that govern the initiation of volcanic eruptions.     

Modeling flocculation in a hypertidal estuary

When fine particles are involved, cohesive properties of sediment can result in flocculation and significantly complicate sediment process studies. We combine data from field observations and state-of-the-art modeling to investigate and predict flocculation processes within a hypertidal estuary. The study site is the Welsh Channel located at the entrance of the Dee Estuary in Liverpool Bay. Field data consist of measurements from a fixed site deployment during 12–22 February 2008. Grain size, suspended sediment volume concentration, and current velocity were obtained hourly from moored instruments at 1.5 m above bed. Near-bottom water samples taken every hour from a research vessel are used to convert volume concentrations to mass concentrations for the moored measurements. We use the hydrodynamic model Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory Coastal Ocean Modelling System (POLCOMS) coupled with the turbulence model General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM) and a sediment module to obtain three-dimensional distributions of suspended particulate matter (SPM). Flocculation is identified by changes in grain size. Small flocs were found during flood and ebb periods—and correlate with strong currents—due to breakup, while coarse flocs were present during slack waters because of aggregation. A fractal number of 2.4 is found for the study site. Turbulent stresses and particle settling velocities are estimated and are found to be related via an exponential function. The result is a simple semiempirical formulation for the fall velocity of the particles solely depending on turbulent stresses. The formula is implemented in the full three-dimensional model to represent changes in particle size due to flocculation processes. Predictions from the model are in agreement with observations for both settling velocity and SPM. The SPM fortnight variability was reproduced by the model and the concentration peaks are almost in phase with those from field data.     

Structure-from-motion photogrammetry analysis of historical aerial photography: Determining beach volumetric change over decadal scales

Historical aerial photographs are an invaluable tool in shoreline mapping and change detection in coastal landscapes. We evaluate the extent to which structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetric methods can be applied to quantify volumetric changes along sandy beaches, using archival imagery. We demonstrate the application of SfM-derived digital surface models (DSMs) at East Beach and Lady Bay in southwest Victoria, Australia, using photographic datasets taken in 1969, 1977 and 1986, and compare them to LiDAR-derived DSMs acquired at both sites in 2007. The SfM approaches resulted in two entire and two partial suitable DSMs out of six datasets. Good-quality DSMs were spatially continuous with a good spread of ground control points (GCPs) near the beach at Lady Bay, whereas unsuitable DSMs were mostly restricted by poor distribution and number of GCPs in spatially segmented areas of East Beach, due to limited overlapping of images, possible poor quality of GCPs and also the propagation of errors in the derived point clouds. A volume of approximately 223 000 ± 72 000 m³ was deposited at Lady Bay between 1969 and 2007, despite minimal erosion observed near the breakwater. The partially suitable dataset of East Beach indicated that beach erosion of at least 39 m³ m⁻¹ occurred immediately to the east of the seawall after 1977. We also discuss the drawbacks and strengths of SfM approaches as a benchmark of historical erosion assessments along sandy beaches. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.