不同空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价模型对比研究

以山洪灾害风险评价的多准则决策模型、最大熵模型、信息量模型三种常见模型为研究对象,选取河西走廊和张掖市为地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度研究区,构建山洪灾害风险评价指标体系,分别完成基于三种模型的两种空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价制图,基于甘肃省地质灾害调查与区划报告数据从模型验证、空间自相关、精度对比和尺度效应等角度对比分析三个模型应用于不同空间尺度的适应性,并给出优选模型。结果表明：最大熵模型是河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上山洪灾害风险评价的优选模型;多准则决策模型不适用于张掖市（市域）空间尺度评价,且三个模型运行结果均没有河西走廊（地理区划）空间尺度上表现良好;三个模型的尺度效应明显,在地理区划空间尺度上应用较良好,缩小至市域空间尺度上模拟结果误差增大;不同空间尺度上,最大熵模型均优于多准则决策模型和信息量模型,适用于地理区划（大中）、市域（小）空间尺度的山洪灾害风险评价。     

京津唐地区城市扩张对地表蒸散发的影响

以京津唐地区为例,基于SEBS模型,利用MODIS遥感数据和气象数据,计算了2000、2005和2010年四季代表月份的平均日蒸散发量,并结合3期土地利用图,定量评估了由城市扩张引起的日蒸散发量的变化。结果表明,不同土地利用类型的日蒸散发量在不同季节表现出不同的分布规律,春、夏和秋季的日蒸散发量分布规律为水域>林地>草地>耕地>城市用地,冬季的日蒸散发量在三年的分布不一致:2000年为林地>草地>水域>城市用地>耕地,2005年为水域>林地>草地>耕地>城市用地,2010年为林地>水域>草地>城市用地>耕地。以研究区土地利用变化不明显的区域为背景区域,评估了除土地利用/覆被变化外的其他因素对京津唐地区夏季日蒸散发的影响。除去该影响后得出土地利用/覆被变化,对日蒸散发的影响,结果表明,各土地利用类型转化为城市用地会使日蒸散发降低,且水域转化成城市用地后,其日蒸散发量降低最多,2000-2005年降低了0.977mm,2000-2010年其降低值为0.983mm。     

Spillway design floods in Sweden: I. New guidelines

Abstract

The new Swedish guidelines for the estimation of design floods for dams and spillways are presented, with emphasis on high-hazard dams. The method is based on a set of regional design precipitation sequences, rescaled for basin area, season and elevation above sea level, and a full hydrological model. A reservoir operation strategy is also a fundamental component of the guidelines. The most critical combination of flood generating factors is searched by systematically inserting the design precipitation sequence into a ten year climatological record, where the initial snowpack has been replaced by a statistical 30-year snowpack. The new guidelines are applicable to single reservoir systems as well as more complex hydroelectric schemes, and cover snowmelt floods, rain floods and combinations of the two. In order to study the probabilities of the computed floods and to avoid regional inconsistencies, extensive comparisons with observed floods and frequency analyses have been carried out.     

尕斯库勒砂西区块N1-N21油藏沉积相特征研究

通过对尕斯库勒砂西区块N1-N^12油藏Ⅺ、Ⅹ-Ⅸ、Ⅷ-Ⅵ、Ⅴ-Ⅰ油层组段沉积相特征、沉积体系展布及演化规律的综合分析，认为砂西区块N1-N^12油藏从下向上发育滨浅湖亚相、辫状河三角洲前缘．滨浅湖亚相、辫状河三角洲平原一前缘亚相，整体为一套反旋回沉积．在此基础上分析了砂西区块N1-N^12油藏沉积相与油气分布的关系．结果表明，分布于Ⅷ-Ⅵ油层组的辫状河三角洲分流河道及构造高部位的河口坝、远砂坝微相砂体为该地区的主要储集体，Ⅴ-Ⅰ油层组发育的泛滥平原微相泥岩为该区的区域性盖层．     

THE STUDY OF RETRIEVAL THEORY AND METHODS FROM SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING FOR METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS OVER EASTERN ASIA—PART Ⅱ:ISPRM AND VSPRM2

Based on the practice of improved simultaneous physical retrieval model(ISPRM),in the lightof the functional analysis approach,the variational simultaneous physical retrieval model(VSPRM)has been developed.Its approximation of 1st degree is VSPRM1,which is identicalwith the ISPRM.Its approximation of 2nd degree is VSPRM2,more advanced than the VSPRM1.This paper has analyzed the function of VSPRM2,pointing out the potentiality of synergy retrievalof this model.Also,it has dealt with the problem of parameterization of water vapor's kernelfunctions and retrieval of water vapor remote sensing.Because of the characteristics of this strong ill posed inverse problem,prior information mustbe used wisely in order to get the accurate calculation of radiance R.In the previous paper,wediscussed how to build the best first guess field,the way to determine the P_s and to correct thecalculation of radiance.In this paper,we continue discussing in depth about the calculation oftransmittance,the determination of surface parameters and the selection for an optimumcombination of channels for the low-level sounding.The long-term experiment and comparison work under operational environment have shownthat the ISPRM is useful for retrieval of temperature and water vapor parameters over Chinaincluding the Tibetan Plateau,and it further proves the scientific nature of well-posed inversetheory.     

Age, origin and significance of a new middle MIS 3 tephra horizon identified within a long-core sequence from Les Echets, France

A new tephra has been identified within a long core (EC 3) sequence recovered from Les Echets, near Lyon, France. This visible tephra was discovered as part of a high resolution multiproxy re-investigation of the Les Echets sequence. Independent chronological information suggests that the tephra is c . 2 000–45 000 years old, and geochemical analysis indicates that it is of basanitic composition. The latter suggests a possible origin in the Eifel; however, as yet, no other volcanic events or deposits can be correlated to the Les Echets tephra. New sedimentological and chronological data are presented indicating that the tephra falls within an interval that most likely correlates with Dansgaard–Oeschger events 12-9. Thus, this tephra could potentially be an important middle MIS 3 marker horizon in central Europe if it can be traced in other palaeorecords.     

基于COS-2S模型的ADCP海浪方向谱估计

美国RD公司声学多普勒流速剖面仪(ADCP)使用的波向估计算法是迭代的最大似然算法(IMLM),IMLM可以准确估计出主浪向,但波向估计结果在主浪向以外其他方向上存在由噪声带来的能量分布,使得估计结果变得不准确。设计了基于COS-2S模型的波向估计方法,模型中只含有主波向,算法在准确估计主波向同时有效去除其他方向上噪声带来的能量分布。将一种混合遗传算法(HGA)代替遗传算法(GA)应用到波浪模型的参数求解中,HGA相对GA收敛更快,可有效找出全局最优解。仿真分析和实测数据表明,HGA和IMLM都能准确估计出波浪的主浪向,但HGA可有效去除主浪向以外其他方向上噪声带来的能量分布,HGA比IMLM更加适用于海洋各种噪声存在条件下的测量环境。     

柴达木盆地西部大浪滩梁中矿区软钾镁矾沉积的矿物组合特征

柴达木盆地西部大浪滩梁中矿区是一个以液体钾矿为主、固液并存的大型钾镁盐矿田。通过对梁中矿区大浪滩凹地钾镁盐矿点实地考察,以兴元钾肥厂开挖的固体钾盐(软钾镁矾、钾石盐和杂卤石等矿物)剖面为研究载体,采集73件固体盐样。通过XRD矿物组成分析,发现梁中凹地盐类呈石盐+泻利盐—石盐+泻利盐+软钾镁矾—石盐+泻利盐+钾石盐—石盐+钾石盐+光卤石—石盐+水氯镁石矿物组合变化。其中,在Ⅱ阶段(5.3².6 m)沉积了层状的固体钾盐矿物(包含软钾镁矾、钾石盐和光卤石)。地层中沉积的软钾镁矾,结晶良好。通过对比分析认为,软钾镁矾的形成条件:1)外来水体的混入,溶滤了地表盐滩中可溶性钾;2)(全新世)相对较高的温度条件,芒硝等矿物的溶解,会使湖表卤水中硫酸盐含量明显增加,卤水组成点易落在25℃介稳相图的白钠镁矾相区,有利于软钾镁矾结晶析出;3)干旱的气候条件。     

Influence of Mass and Radius of Ice Crystals on Hydrometeors,Internal Energy,and Kinetic Energy: A Numeric Model Study简

Two cloud-scale experiments with two different ice-phase schemes were carried out for a precipitation event that occurred in eastern China in 2005.The results were analyzed to examine the influences of the change of ice-particle mass and radius on hydrometeors,internal energy,and kinetic energy,as well as the primary factors responsible.It was found that the ice content increases notably and the snow content decreases due to the change.This is the consequence of the modulation of cloud microphysical processes.In particular,the Bergeron process and the accretion of snow and cloud ice are markedly influenced.The differences of internal energy and kinetic energy between the two experiments are caused by adjustments to pressure-flux divergence,the coupling of temperature and divergence,and gravitational work,and the reason is that these three factors result in differences of local changes of internal and kinetic energy.     

红外光谱/扫描电镜等现代大型仪器岩石矿物鉴定技术及其应用

传统的光学显微镜由于分辨率、放大倍数的限制,对于细微颗粒的定性分析不准确,矿物的定量分析存在一定的误差,对纳米-微米级矿物形貌及结构特征的观察束手无策。随着油气勘探及地质找矿的不断深入,需要提供岩石中所有矿物、孔隙及微量元素的信息,因此整合傅里叶红外光谱仪、X射线衍射仪、拉曼光谱仪、扫描电镜的优点,建立以大型仪器为基础的岩石矿物鉴定方法是当前地质工作的需要。红外光谱光谱范围为7500~370 cm-1,能对固、液、气样品中含量高于30%的矿物进行快速、准确的定性分析;主要用于有机质分析,其次还可对部分具有极性键的无机化合物及金属氧化物进行分析。X射线衍射仪能快速地对样品中含量大于15%的矿物进行较为准确的定量分析;现今主要用于各类晶质矿物的定性分析,同时也可对碳酸盐岩矿物等不含水矿物进行定量分析。拉曼光谱仪光谱范围为200~1000 nm,空间分辨率为横向0.5μm、纵向2μm,通过对包裹体进行测试能直接获得成岩过程中的温度、压力、流体成分等信息;目前主要用于流体包裹体成分的测试,其次还可对分子极化度会发生变化的液态、粉末及固体样品进行定性分析。扫描电镜分辨率达到1 nm,能清晰地观察到纳米-微米级矿物的形貌特征及矿物的结构特征;主要用于纳米-微米级的任何非磁性固体矿物的形貌及相关关系的观察。通过大型仪器建立的岩石矿物鉴定方法具有更高的分辨率,显著地提高了岩矿鉴定的精准度,大大拓宽了岩矿鉴定的范围(如鉴定纳米/微米级的矿物、矿物的不同变种等),能够全面、精准地提供岩石矿物的矿物含量和矿物组成、客观准确的成岩作用信息、清晰的矿物微观形貌及结构特征,而且仪器功能相互重叠,测试结果相互验证,保证了测试结果的可靠性。与传统光学显微镜鉴定方法相比,现代大型仪器岩石矿物鉴定技术为揭示矿物间的共生、反应、演化、岩石的成因、沉积/成岩环境等提供了依据,为地质工作提供准确、全面的矿物定性定量、组构特征及成岩作用等信息,为地质工作的顺利完成奠定了坚实的基础。