Quantitative estimation of sediment erosion and accretion processes in a micro-tidal coast

Spatio-temporal cross-shore profiles and textural characteristics are the key parameters for understanding dynamics of the inter-tidal sedimentary environment.This study describes short-term dynamics of the inter-tidal sedimentary environment at beaches along the micro-tidal coast.Further a correlation is estimated in cross-shore morphodynamics and textural characteristics of surface sediments.The sedimentary environment is examined for a complete annual cycle using monthly collected cross-shore profiles and sediment samples.The Devbag beach（northern side） and Ravindranath Tagore beach（southern side） at the Kali river mouth,Karwar,west coast of India are characterized from extremely gentle to average slope,and broadly composed of unimodal sands.The sedimentary environment is significantly composed of textures having fine to medium sand,well to moderately sorted,fine to coarse skewed,and platykurtic to leptokurtic in nature.During the annual cycle a reversal pattern is observed between the two adjacent beaches,where a slower rate of sediment accretion is observed at Devbag beach while Ravindranath Tagore beach exhibited erosion.The beach dynamics along with the propagation of south-west（SW） and south-west-west（SWW） waves towards the coast significantly exhibit a dominance of northward sediment transport with the existence of a northerly alongshore current.In addition,the study reveals that an eroded beach may not be significantly identified composed of coarse grains.The poor correlation in morpho-sedimentary characteristics reveals the prediction of grain characteristics based on beach profile and vice-versa is unrealistic.     

Optimisation of Hidden Markov Model using Baum–Welch algorithm for prediction of maximum and minimum temperature over Indian Himalaya

Maximum and minimum temperatures are used in avalanche forecasting models for snow avalanche hazard mitigation over Himalaya. The present work is a part of development of Hidden Markov Model (HMM) based avalanche forecasting system for Pir-Panjal and Great Himalayan mountain ranges of the Himalaya. In this work, HMMs have been developed for forecasting of maximum and minimum temperatures for Kanzalwan in Pir-Panjal range and Drass in Great Himalayan range with a lead time of two days. The HMMs have been developed using meteorological variables collected from these stations during the past 20 winters from 1992 to 2012. The meteorological variables have been used to define observations and states of the models and to compute model parameters (initial state, state transition and observation probabilities). The model parameters have been used in the Forward and the Viterbi algorithms to generate temperature forecasts. To improve the model forecasts, the model parameters have been optimised using Baum–Welch algorithm. The models have been compared with persistence forecast by root mean square errors (RMSE) analysis using independent data of two winters (2012–13, 2013–14). The HMM for maximum temperature has shown a 4–12% and 17–19% improvement in the forecast over persistence forecast, for day-1 and day-2, respectively. For minimum temperature, it has shown 6–38% and 5–12% improvement for day-1 and day-2, respectively.     

Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.     

Palaeodiet of Miocene Producers and Depositional Environments: Inferences from the First Evidence of Microcoprolites from India

This paper reviews research on coprolites from India, providing the first evidence of microcoprolites from the early Miocene (Aquitanian) Khari Nadi Formation sedimentary succession, exposed about 1.5 km northeast of the village of Kotada, Kachchh (Kutch) District, Gujarat State, western India. Morphometric and size comparisons (in a statistical framework) with known coprolites from the Mesozoic-Cenozoic successions of India (including those recorded herein) and globally suggest that fishes were the likely producers of the Kotada coprolites. Scanning electron microscopy confirms the presence of fish dental remains within the coprolites, while both Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Energy Dispersive X-ray Spectroscopy (EDS) reveal the phosphatic nature of the microscopic coprolite specimens (recorded herein) hinting that the producer(s) were predominantly carnivorous (ichthyophagous) in their diet. Furthermore, X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) analysis of the host and associated lithologies allows us to deduce that the Kotada coprolites were deposited in a shallow marine environment, with possible aerial exposure of the host lithology occurring at some point after deposition. To the best of our knowledge, the present report is the first record of microscopic fish coprolites from India, as well as being the first from the Aquitanian of India and the oldest Neogene record from India.