Models of the Southern Oscillation in the 300–100 mb layer and the basis of seasonal forecasting

Summary The geometry of the principal Upper High (near the Indian Occean) in the 300–100 mb layer appears to account for the Southern Oscillation (S.O.), and models of its behaviour are presented. Significant features of these models include the equatorial points of upper convergence (C) and divergence (D), a pressure discontinuity (CNDS) forming «arcs» and an «enclosure» around the high, and, lastly, encircling «crescents» both outside and inside the enclosure. The geography of the seasonal sucession can thus—in a qualitative manner—be interpreted in the light of known wind and contour patterns near the tropopause. With a few general principles, the established empirical rules of long-range forecasting then follow by deduction. The models and the terminology are useful likewise in the interpretation of solar-terrestrial relations and of climatic fluctuations.     

A residual analysis method for quantitative comparison of spatial data from the Iceland-Faeroes Front

A spatial statistical method has been developed from the well-known Kriging technique in geostatistics, as a way of providing quantitative comparison between a pair of spatial data sets, and a measure for such a comparison. This residual analysis method is applied to oceanographic data in order to compare Iceland-Faeroes Front (IFF) model predictions against appropriate field observations, with an aim to assess the IFF model performance and its prediction accuracy. The method is also used to evaluate the model-generated dynamical variability within the model predictions, as well as the natural variability within the frontal observations. From the results, it has been found that the IFF model is highly robust, and gives better predictions at depth 150–350 m than elsewhere. Within such a depth (i.e. 250–350 m), there is also evidence to suggest that the main frontal region is most active above the IF Ridge. The natural variability obtained from the observations appears to be comparable to the model-generated dynamical variability after 20 days of integration, indicating a certain degree of accuracy in the model predictions. The method reported in this paper could also be extended for further use in model data assimilation. Thus, the work not only demonstrates how spatial statistics can be applied to oceanographic data, but also opens up new statistical tools for data handling in ocean modelling.     

The wadic project: A comprehensive field evaluation of directional wave instrumentation

The results of a comprehensive field trial of nearly all commercially available directional wave measurement systems at the Edda field in the North Sea during winter 1985-86 are presented. The results summarize the accuracy of the principal engineering wave parameters from each system and the dependence on sea state. Limiting factors on system performance and operational problems are also included in the assessment. Overall experience has been good with systems utilizing widely different measurement principles returning consistent results.     

China's population: an alternative perspective

The author presents a selection of cartograms designed to illustrate aspects of the demography of China. Topics covered include population growth, density, regional variations in fertility, and age distribution. A discussion of the advantages of using cartograms (maps drawn proportional to a given variable) as opposed to conventional, area-based maps, is included.